07. Economic and Sector Work (ESW) Studies
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Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. Core diagnostic reports are mandated by the World Bank before lending programs are begun.
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A Tale of Two Transitions: Iraq’s Energy Sector and Macroeconomic Stability in a Climate-Constrained World
(World Bank, Washington DC, 2023-03-28)This paper assesses the costs and benefits of Iraq’s own energy transition from fossil fuel dependent power sector to one with a significantly higher share of renewables amid an accelerating global energy transition. The paper quantifies the returns of Iraq’s energy transition, its high exposure to the global energy transition due to the deep role of oil revenues in the provision of public finances, and the policy tradeoffs associated with moving towards a greener energy mix. The analysis finds that all decarbonization pathways of the electricity sector bring additional growth and productivity gains compared to maintaining the status-quo, albeit at different levels of cost effectiveness. However, all pathways (including existing GoI plans) are fiscally costly given the required upfront levels of capex and the subsidy. This cost could prove to be fiscally steep in deep decarbonization scenarios especially if the transition is fully financed by the public budget. Consequently, the success of the energy transition in Iraq will largely depend on the political context and on the ambition of a GoI-led reform process that can overcome any socio-political vested interest. It will also require popular understanding and support for the urgency of this transition. -
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Syria Economic Monitor, Winter 2022/23: Syria’s Economy in Ruins after a Decade-long War
(Washington, DC, 2023-03-28)The World Bank’s teams have been resorting to the use of a mix of standard tools and innovative geospatial and remote-based data sources (e.g., nighttime lights, shipping-position data, traffic congestion data, aviation statistics, mobile phone location data, remote sensing vegetation indices, and conflict intensity maps) to reveal economic trends and analyze unrecorded activities that are prominent in war-torn economies like Syria. Macroeconomic conditions in Syria have substantially deteriorated since the start of the war in Ukraine. Already very high, the vulnerability of Syrian households is on the rise. Subject to high uncertainty, real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by 3.2 percent in 2023, following a 3.5 percent decline in 2022. -
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Syria Earthquake 2023: Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA)
(Washington DC, 2023-03-28)Following the magnitude (Mw) 7.8 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake on February 6, 2023, and the (Mw) 6.3 earthquake on February 20, 2023, the World Bank launched the Syria Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA). The objective of the RDNA is to estimate the impact of the earthquake on physical assets and service delivery in the most affected areas. The RDNA covers six governorates with roughly 10million inhabitants, with an in-depth analysis of nine cities. It provides preliminary estimates to rebuild infrastructure and restore service delivery, and general guiding principles for recovery and building back better, focusing on early recovery (0–12 months) and short-term needs (1–3 years). The RDNA also analyses the macroeconomic and socioeconomic impacts of the earthquake to anticipate repercussions on the economic outlook and on the population’s well-being. This RDNA contributes to the understanding of the impactof the earthquake on Syria. While the RDNA focuses on the damages incurred by the earthquake, the compounding effect of the pre-existing damages caused by the conflict are reflected in the pre-earthquake baseline. The RDNA follows a globally established and recognized damage, loss, and needs assessment methodology developed by the World Bank Group (WBG), the European Union (EU), and the United Nations (UN). This methodology has been applied globally in post-disaster and conflict contexts to inform recovery and reconstruction planning. Prior to this RDNA, the World Bank Group conducted six assessments to provide information on the effects of the ongoing conflict on population, physical infrastructure, and quality of service delivery. -
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Closing Gender Gaps in Earnings
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-03-27)Gender gaps in earnings persist across all regions. For every dollar men make, women make 77 cents. Closing this gap can lead to sizeable gains for economies - an estimated 160 trillion dollars in global gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. A multitude of factors contributes to this gap and this note sheds light on some of the key drivers. Effective evidence-backed policy options to close the earnings gap include providing information on work opportunities and returns to employment, training in socio-emotional skills, imparting sector-specific technical skills to address occupational segregation and adopting pay-transparency laws. The World Bank Group actively supports countries to boost women’s access to better, high-quality jobs through development policy lending, advisory and analytical work, and supporting reforms to address constraining contextual factors. This note examines an array of policy options that are effective or show promise in closing gender gaps in earnings and offers some key takeaways. -
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Philippine Jobs Report: Shaping a Better Future for the Filipino Workforce
(Washington, DC, 2023-03-27)Shaping a Better Future for the Filipino Workforce aims to inform jobs policy by examining key determinants and outcomes of jobs. Jobs are created when the macroeconomic environment is conducive and policies are predictable to businesses with sustained growth, trades, and investments. At the same time, a large body of literature also shows that economic growth alone is not sufficient for generating jobs. Jobs are created when firms pursue expansion through innovation and competitiveness and demand for more labor input, while workers’ skills and human capital are able to meet the needs of firms. Intrahousehold resource allocation and decisions for labor supply also affect the jobs outcomes. It is not uncommon that workers as self-employed create jobs by initiating their own business. The market clearing process of labor is then affected by labor market institutions, most notably labor market regulations and labor policies and programs. These are key determinants of how easy it is to start a business or to hire a worker, how high labor costs are, and how efficiently firms and workers are matched. Part I looks into the country’s labor market in chronological order, while Part II discusses three major areas of Philippine jobs - labor regulation, international migration, and emerging demands for green and digital jobs. -
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From Good to Great in Indian Tertiary Education: Realizing the Promise of the National Education Policy
(World Bank, Washington DC, 2023-03-23)India has one of the largest and fastest-growing tertiary education systems in the world. The system enrolls 37 million students across nearly 50,000 institutions. The recently endorsed National Education Policy (NEP) aims at a further doubling of the gross enrollment ratio in higher education from 26.3 percent to 50 percent by 2035. Despite its size and growth rate, and the emphasis placed on tertiary education by Indian policymakers in recent times, the system has faced continuous challenges of equitable access, quality, governance, and financing, with the quality of inputs and outputs not keeping pace with the expansion of the sector. The World Bank has supported tertiary education in India through a series of engagements in technical education at the national level, and general tertiary education in specific states. The NEP’s proposal for broad-based tertiary education reforms as a key step toward transforming the tertiary education sector in India aligns with the Bank’s global tertiary education strategy and presents an opportunity for the Bank’s engagement in this area through analytic work, dialogue with key stakeholders, and strategic engagement with states and tertiary education institutions. Based on this analysis, the World Bank in 2020-2021 expanded its engagement in Indian tertiary education through dedicated analytical and advisory work in the NEP context. Focusing on the areas of access and equity, employability, digitalization, internationalization, academic careers, governance, funding, as well as quality assurance, the World Bank conducted a series of virtual events and prepared technical reports discussing the status quo in Indian tertiary education in the context of the proposed NEP reforms and international trends. The report at hand provides a summary of the outcomes of this work. -
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Green Growth in North Macedonia‘s Agriculture Sector
(Washington, DC, 2023-03-23)This report focuses on the agri-food sector in North Macedonia and investigates the potential and necessary actions for adopting a green growth trajectory. Agri-food is a key sector in need of transformation to achieve green growth in the country. The sector has great economic importance, and it is vulnerable to climate change and other environmental risks, which will compound current sector inefficiencies, including declining competitiveness. This report aims to assess: (i) the actions needed to re-focus agricultural support priorities in a manner that reflects green growth ambitions; (ii) policy financing implications; and (iii) the availability and capacity of effective policy implementation mechanisms. Finally, the potential impacts of greening agriculture support on farm efficiency are assessed and discussed. -
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Niger Country Environmental Analysis
(Washington DC, 2023-03-23)Niger is a fragile country, marked by a poorly diversified economy and extreme poverty. Climate change, rapid demographic growth, and weak governance are major threats to Niger's growth. These changes have led to human losses, decreased soil productivity, and increased competition for access to resources. Moreover, many rural communities have grappled with a land tenure system with often unclear and overlapping rights, a lack of land use classification and registry, and an absence of monitoring and enforcing by local institutions. It is important to note that the rapid population growth and the recent COVID pandemic have put additional pressure on food security and natural resources. Natural capital is crucial for the Nigeriens’ livelihoods and food security. Degradation of cropland and pastureland is a key problem in Niger. This Country Environmental Analysis (CEA) aims to analyze critical environmental challenges that threaten sustainable economic growth in Niger and to propose actions to address them. It focuses on three government priorities that require in-depth analysis and immediate response: land degradation, deforestation and forest degradation, and climate change. -
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Managing the Fiscal Implications of Public-Private Partnerships in a Sustainable and Resilient Manner: A Compendium of Good Practices and Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Pandemic
(Washington, DC, 2023-03-22)Public-private partnerships (PPPs) can sometimes be perceived as a means for delivering infrastructure for free. A more nuanced but still inexact view is that they are a mechanism to overcome fiscal constraints. Some argue, perhaps rightly, that often governments enter PPP contracts without fully understanding their fiscal implications. These misconceptions lead to several challenges. There is evidence that fiscal sustainability is often overlooked or ignored by countries with PPP programs, with long-term fiscal implications the governments did not understand or manage well. Governments also struggle with perceptions that they are not fully transparent about the real, ultimate costs of PPP projects. This report aims to illustrate how to improve fiscal risk management and treatment of fiscal commitments and contingent liabilities (FCCL) arising from PPP projects, to build better Infrastructure post-COVID-19. It intends to be a resource for World Bank client countries, including low income and fragile economies, to design their fiscal PPP management frameworks in a viable way that helps them develop their PPP programs while maintaining medium-to-long-term fiscal sustainability and resilience. With that in mind, Volume I highlights and contextualizes the main findings from a set of case studies that assessed the PPP fiscal risk management framework in select countries, and synthesizes the observable and qualitative results in managing the impact of crises, in particular the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on that, it also explores how this crisis has affected PPP projects and overall PPP programs, and suggests improvements to FCCL management frameworks in order to strengthen the capacity of countries to continue with their PPP programs in a sustainable fiscal manner. Volume II contains the detailed case studies on which Volume I is based. -
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Infrastructure Tokenization: Does Blockchain Have a Role in the Financing of Infrastructure?
(World Bank, Washington DC, 2023-03-22)The purpose of this report is to assess whether digitizing the equity or debt financing used for infrastructure projects using blockchain, that is, tokenized infrastructure, provides enough benefits to justify the use of this technology. The information presented here aims to inform the World Bank whether it should explore the possibility of tokenizing one of its infrastructure projects. The conclusions are based on interviews with tokenization start-ups, experts, and the review of current and planned regulatory frameworks in selected jurisdictions and use cases/pilots to date.