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  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update, October 2023: Services for Development
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-10-01) World Bank
    Economic activity in developing East Asia and Pacific has recovered from the recent shocks and is growing. However, output remains below pre-pandemic levels in many countries and inflation remains higher than target ranges in some countries. Near-term growth will depend on the dynamics of global growth and commodity prices, and financial tightening, which is likely to continue in the face of high inflation in the US. Taking a long-term view, growth in EAP has been faster and more stable than in much of the rest of the world. The result has been a striking decline in poverty and, in the last decade, also a decline in inequality. But it would be a mistake to let these achievements obscure vulnerabilities, past, present, and future. The region must implement structural, macro-financial, and climate-related reforms to address the problems of slowing productivity growth and scars from the pandemic, even as it faces up to the major challenges of deglobalization, aging and climate change.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Prospects : Trade for Growth and Economic Transformation
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-12) World Bank
    The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global trade and supply chains, exacerbating the rise in global commodity and food prices. Persistently high global inflation accompanied by tepid growth brings fears of stagflation that could endure for several years. Amidst this environment, the US Federal Reserve and other advanced economy central banks sharply tightened monetary policy to curb inflation. This has translated into tighter external financing conditions and financial stress for some emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) as capital outflows have intensified. Despite global slowdown, Indonesia has experienced strong growth in 2022 thanks to commodity windfalls and a reopening of the economy. Indonesia’s external vulnerability has been low to moderate as strong exports have supported the external balance although tighter global finances have put some pressure on the capital account. Indonesia is projected to have a robust growth over the next three years though with significant downside risks emanating from the global economic environment. To address current macrofiscal policy challenges, the report highlights three policy and institutional areas that may warrant attention going forward. The first is about continuing with the implementation of tax reforms to broaden the tax base and improve compliance of business tax collection. The second is related to public spending where the authorities could over time move towards a rules-based pricing model for energy to contain subsidy pressures. The third is improving targeting and expanding coverage of existing social assistance and social insurance programs. This means filling coverage gaps, developing a system that provides a guaranteed minimum protection across the lifecycle, and strengthening delivery systems.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2022: Reforms for Recovery
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-10) World Bank
    Growth in most countries in the East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) region rebounded in the first half of 2022, but China lost momentum. In much of the region, domestic demand revived after the distress of the COVID-19 Delta wave. In China, the public health measures to contain outbreaks of the highly infectious Omicron variant inhibited consumption. Most of the region is projected to grow faster and have lower inflation in 2022 than other regions. Beyond the end of 2022, three factors could be a drag on growth: global deceleration, rising debt, and policy distortions. Current measures to contain inflation and debt are adding to existing distortions in the markets for food, fuel and finance in ways that could hurt growth. In each case, more efficient measures could address current difficulties without undermining longer-term objectives.
  • Publication
    Graduating from a Conditional Cash Transfer Program in Indonesia: Results of a Household Survey of Prosperous-Independent Graduates of the Family Hope Program in 2020
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12) Syamsulhakim, Ekki; Khadijah, Nurzanty
    The Family Hope Program (Program Keluarga Harapan - PKH), a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program launched in 2007, has become one of the country’s flagship social protection programs, targeting the poorest families in Indonesia to reduce their expenditure burden and improve their wellbeing through education, health, and social welfare services. In the last 13 years, PKH has expanded to 10 million beneficiary families across all districts/cities in Indonesia. Studies have provided evidence of PKH’s desirable impacts, which include usage of health services, education participation, and stunting reduction (Cahyadi, et al., 2020; Alatas, 2011). However, there is still limited evidence on how families who have already left the program are doing, particularly in regard to their socio-economic status, employment and livelihood activities, program complementarities, and sustainability of the previously incentivized behavior.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2021: Long COVID
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-09-27) World Bank
    The East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region is suffering a reversal of fortune. In 2020, many EAP countries successfully contained COVID-19 and economic activity swiftly revived as other regions struggled with the pandemic and economic recession. Now the region is being hit hard by the COVID-19 Delta variant while many advanced economies are on the path to economic recovery. The disease is damaging the economy and is unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future. In the near term, the persistence of the pandemic will prolong human and economic distress unless individuals and firms can adapt. In the longer term, COVID-19 will reduce growth and increase inequality unless the scars are remedied and the opportunities grasped. Policy action must help economic agents to adjust today and make choices that avert deceleration and disparity tomorrow.
  • Publication
    Oceans for Prosperity: Reforms for a Blue Economy in Indonesia
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03-26) World Bank
    Oceans are vital for Indonesia’s economy and social welfare. However, there are challenges to the extent and integrity of Indonesia’s marine and coastal ecosystems that, if not managed well, could undermine the potential of Indonesia’s ocean economy. Compounding these long-term challenges are more immediate pressures from the COVID-19 pandemic. Both long and short-term challenges can be addressed through a blue economy strategy; such a strategy is being pursued by the Government of Indonesia through a range of initiatives. Developing a blue economy will require substantial investments and policy reform that build on these initiatives.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2021: Uneven Recovery
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-03-25) World Bank
    A year after the first case was confirmed in Wuhan COVID-19 is proving hard to suppress even, while the emergence of more transmissible variants of the variant poses new challenges to the containment of the disease globally. The economies of the region began to bounce back in the second half of 2020. However, only China and Vietnam have followed a V-shape recovery path with output surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels. Most of the other countries have not seen a full-fledged recovery in terms of either output or growth momentum. Economic performance across countries continues to depend on (i) the efficiency with which the virus is contained; (ii) the ability to take advantage of the revival in international goods trade; and (iii) the capacity of governments to provide fiscal and monetary support. China and Vietnam are expected to enjoy strong growth in 2021, whereas other economies in the region will grow more gradually. Many economies, especially in the Pacific islands are not expected to reach pre-COVID-19 levels of output until 2022 or later. Governments in the region need to work cooperatively to address three key issues: (i) a regional and global distribution of vaccines that minimizes the risk of a continued spread of COVID-19 and its variants; (ii) continue to provide economic support to their economies while carefully evaluating the trade-offs between the need for further stimulus and debt sustainability; and (iii) enact policies and prioritize investments that protect against climate risk to ensure sustainable economic growth.
  • Publication
    The Innovation Imperative for Developing East Asia
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-02-23) Cirera, Xavier; Mason, Andrew D.; Mare, Davide S.; Tran, Trang Thu; Mare, Davide S.
    After a half century of transformative economic progress that moved hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, countries in developing East Asia are facing an array of challenges to their future development. Slowed productivity growth, increased fragility of the global trading system, and rapid changes in technology are all threatening export-oriented, labor-intensive manufacturing—the region’s engine of growth. Significant global challenges—such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic—are exacerbating economic vulnerability. These developments raise questions about whether the region’s past model of development can continue to deliver rapid growth and poverty reduction. Against this background, The Innovation Imperative in Developing East Asia aims to deepen understanding of the role of innovation in future development. The report examines the state of innovation in the region and analyzes the main constraints that firms and countries face to innovating. It assesses current policies and institutions, and lays out an agenda for action to spur more innovation-led growth. A key finding of the report is that countries’ current innovation policies are not aligned with their capabilities and needs. Policies need to strengthen the capacity of firms to innovate and support technological diffusion rather than just invention. Policy makers also need to eliminate policy biases against innovation in services, a sector that is growing in economic importance. Moreover, countries need to strengthen key complementary factors for innovation, including firms’ managerial quality, workers’ skills, and finance for innovation. Countries in developing East Asia would also do well to deepen their tradition of international openness, which could foster openness in other parts of the world. Doing so would help sustain the flows of ideas, trade, investment, and people that facilitate the creation and diffusion of knowledge for innovation.
  • Publication
    Improving Governance of Indonesia's Peatlands and Other Lowland Ecosystems
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-02-01) World Bank
    The report aims to advance a policy dialogue on how to address sustainability challenges from lowland developments. The specific approach discussed in this report is the "landscape approach" which, in turn, calls for improved "landscape governance." As a technical background study, the report serves four functions. First, it summarizes the principles of a landscape approach, elaborated in the context of Indonesia's lowlands through two previous technical studies. Second, it takes stock of current governance challenges in Indonesia's lowlands, focusing on those related to the government sector, and discusses how these challenges currently prevent a landscape approach from being implemented in Indonesia's lowlands. Third, it reviews Indonesia's recent efforts to address the governance challenges in the management of peatlands and other lowland ecosystems. Fourth, it offers recommendations on options to improve lowland governance in order to shift toward integrated management of Indonesia's lowlands based on a landscape approach.The report focuses on the lowland areas in eight fire-prone provinces, and on key landscape governance issues related to peatlands. Indonesia suffered many years of repeated fires and haze crises, with landmark events in 1982/83, 1997/98, 2002, 2006, 2009, and 2015. The 2015 El Niño-driven fires were particularly extensive and costly. Almost 80 percent of the 2015–16 fires occurred within the lowland areas in eight fire-prone provinces—Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Jambi, Papua, Riau, South Kalimantan, South Sumatra, and West Kalimantan—which together account for 87 percent of lowland areas nationally. The report highlights the importance of sustainable landscape management of lowland areas, particularly of the peatlands within lowland boundaries, for achieving the Government of Indonesia’s objective in preventing land and forest fires.
  • Publication
    Sustainable Lowland Agriculture Development in Indonesia
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-02-01) World Bank
    For Indonesia's agricultural sector to continue to make a significant sustainable social and economic contribution, it will need to undergo a transformation. While the contribution of Indonesia's agriculture sector to national gross domestic product (13 percent) has declined greatly over the past three decades, it is still significant, ranking in third place in 2019 after the oil and gas processing sector (20 percent) and the non-oil and gas processing sector (18 percent). To ensure continued contribution of this sector, the Indonesian government has implemented a number of strategies and measures, including REDD+,1 low carbon development, Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) action plans, and green growth strategies. However, despite these efforts, performance in terms of environmental sustainability indicators and contributions to smallholders' livelihoods, particularly in lowland areas, is still suboptimal. Indonesia's lowland areas, in particular, have significant potential to contribute to increased agricultural production, especially in the case of rice, but also for a range of other food and non-food commodities. Indonesia's lowlands cover about 20 percent of Indonesia's total area of which about half are peatlands. Most of this area is found on Indonesia's three largest islands (Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua) amounting to 33.7 million hectares, or about 25 percent of the total land area of these islands (World Bank 2018). Indonesia has the largest area of tropical peatlands of any nation, of which more than 90 percent are distributed in the lowland areas of these three islands. However, lowlands are also of great importance for biodiversity, including mangroves, peat swamp forest and freshwater swamp forest with their specific flora and fauna. Despite the significance of lowland agriculture for the achievement of higher levels of national economic growth and environmental sustainability and for improving rural livelihoods in Indonesia, lowland agriculture must overcome several challenges if it is to realize its full potential.