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Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022: Time for an Equitable Banking Resolution

(Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank

The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.
A New State of Mind: Greater Transparency and Accountability in the Middle East and North Africa

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-10-05) Belhaj, Ferid ; Gatti, Roberta ; Lederman, Daniel ; Sergenti, Ernest John ; Assen, Hoda ; Lotfi, Rana ; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam

The MENA region is facing important vulnerabilities, which the current crises—first the pandemic, then the war in Ukraine—have exacerbated. Prices of food and energy are higher, hurting the most vulnerable, and rising interest rates from the global tightening of monetary policy are making debt service more burdensome. Part I explores some of the resulting vulnerabilities for MENA. MENA countries are facing diverging paths for future growth. Oil Exporters have seen windfall increases in state revenues from the rise in hydrocarbon prices, while oil importers face heightened stress and risk—from higher import bills, especially for food and energy, and the depreciation of local currencies in some countries. Part II of this report argues that poor governance, and, in particular, the lack of government transparency and accountability, is at the root of the region’s development failings—including low growth, exclusion of the most disadvantaged and women, and overuse of such precious natural resources as land and water.
Africa's Pulse, No. 26, October 2022 : Food System Opportunities in a Turbulent Time: Opportunités pour le Système Alimentaire dans une Période de Turbulence

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-10-04) Calderon, Cesar ; Kabundi, Alain ; Kubota, Megumi ; Korman, Vijdan ; Goyal, Aparajita ; Eliste, Paavo ; Forget, Vanina Daphne

African economies are facing a series of challenges to their post-pandemic recovery. Economic activity in the region is slowing to 3.3 percent amid global headwinds, including weak global growth and tightening global financial conditions. Elevated inflation rates and resulting policy tightening, as well as the rising risk of debt distress, are also impacting economic activity. While food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa was increasing before the onset of Covid-19, the pandemic and the food and energy crisis have contributed to the recent steep increase in food insecurity and malnutrition. Climate shocks, low productivity in agriculture, lack of infrastructure also contribute to rising food insecurity in the region. The economic fallout from the multiple crises affecting the region has lowered household incomes, increased poverty, widen inequality and heightened food insecurity. This report discusses short-term measures combined with medium- to long-term policy actions that can strengthen African countries' capacity to build resilience and seize opportunities to unlock productivity-enhancing growth while protecting the poor and vulnerable.
Burkina Faso - Note Sectorielle sur les Forêts: Pour une Gestion Durable des Forêts du Burkina Faso

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10) Banque mondiale

Les forets apportent une contribution essentielle au développement socioéconomique du Burkina Faso. Dans le même temps, moins de 1% du budget de l’État est consacré à la gestion des forêts. Le manque de financement - à la fois pour l’investissement et le fonctionnement - est l’un des principaux problèmes auxquels le secteur est confronté. En conséquence, les forêts disparaissent. Le Burkina Faso a perdu près de la moitié de ses forêts en 30 ans. Les actions prioritaires sont : (i) Accroître les revenus tirés des forêts ; (ii) Modifier la clé de répartition du prix de vente du stère de bois de feu entre les acteurs et augmenter la part destinée aux communes ; (iii) Augmenter les investissements publics destinés au secteur forestier et le budget qui lui est alloué ; (iv) Faire une plus grande place à la biomasse dans les politiques énergétiques ; (v) Utiliser les fonds carbone comme une opportunité de générer des recettes supplémentaires et (vi) Renforcer les capacités techniques des services forestiers.
Djibouti Economic Monitor, Fall 2022

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank

Djibouti’s economic activity has slowed since the beginning of 2022, after the rebound observed in 2021. Fiscal pressure has increased as a result of measures to mitigate the impact of the war in Ukraine, worsening drought, and a sharp increase in debt service in 2022. Rising international energy and food prices generated high year-on-year inflation. The external current account’ deteriorated further in 2022. The banking sector has remained generally stable and sound, despite the many shocks facing the Djibouti economy. Djibouti’s economy is expected to recover gradually over the medium term. There are several risks to Djibouti’s mediumterm prospects: (i) a further deterioration in the fiscal situation resulting from a continued accumulation of public debt, a continued decline in revenues, and increased tax exemptions; (ii) potential shocks in the global transport and logistics value chains (particularly important for the activities of port-related public enterprises); (iii) the continuation or possible intensification of the Ethiopian crisis; and (iv) climatic shocks, including drought and floods. To strengthen its resilience to the multiple exogenous shocks it faces, Djibouti is implementing a strategy to diversify its port activities in order to capture more value added in international trade. This strategy includes the development of a ship repair yard, a new oil terminal and a new business district at the old port. In addition, to address the impact of climate change, Djibouti is developing a national strategy for the promotion of a green economy whose activities will help generate additional income for the population through the development of ecotourism activities in addition to their beneficial impact on climate change. In this context, the development of networks and the use of digital technology offer Djibouti significant potential for creating economic and social opportunities.
CPIA Africa, October 2022: Assessing Africa’s Policies and Institutions

(Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank

The Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) Africa 2022 report provides an assessment of the quality of policies and institutions for the calendar year 2021 in all 39 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that are International Development Association (IDA)–eligible. The overall average score for these countries remained unchanged from the previous year at 3.1. Similarly, no changes were observed at the subregional level, where average scores were unchanged at 3.2 and 3.0 for West and Central Africa and East and Southern Africa, respectively. However, at the country level, the overall CPIA scores changed in 11 countries, including an increase in seven countries and a decline in four. Among the countries that increased their CPIA scores, nearly 70 percent has done it on account of better policies for social inclusion and equity. Among the four countries with decreased CPIA scores, three are assessed with weakened performance in macroeconomic management. Countries with below average scores (under 3.0) are mostly fragile and conflict-affected cases. Section 1 of this report evaluates the impact of the pandemic on economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa’s IDA-eligible countries, particularly focusing on key macroeconomic outcomes. Section 2 of the report presents the CPIA assessment results by clusters, by criteria, as well as by countries, while distinguishing between fragile and non-fragile countries. Section 3 provides the individual country CPIA pages.
Morocco Country Climate and Development Report

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank Group

Climate change poses a serious threat to Morocco’s economic growth and human potential but with the right investments and policies in place, a more sustainable future is possible. A new World Bank diagnostic tool, The Country Climate and Development Report explores the linkages between climate and development and identifies priority actions to build resilience and reduce carbon emissions, while supporting economic growth and reducing poverty. The Morocco climate report identifies three priority areas – tackling water scarcity and droughts; enhancing resilience to floods; and decarbonizing the economy. The report also looks at the cross-cutting issues of financing, governance, and equity. The underlying message in the report is that if Morocco invests in climate action now and takes the appropriate policy measures, the benefits will be immense. Ambitious climate actions will help to revitalize rural areas, create new jobs and position the Kingdom as a green industrial hub, while also helping Morocco to reach its broader development goals. The report identifies key pathways to decarbonize the economy, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and massively deploying solar and wind power. The report estimates that total investment needed to put Morocco firmly on a resilient and low carbon pathway by the 2050s would be around $78 billion in present dollar value. The good news is that these investments could be gradual and that with the appropriate policies in place, the private sector could shoulder much of the cost.
Tunisia - Systematic Country Diagnostic: Rebuilding Trust and Meeting Aspirations for a More Prosperous and Inclusive Tunisia

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-09-30) World Bank

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) comes at critical moment in Tunisia. Since the 2011 revolution and the promulgation of a new constitution in 2014, Tunisia has been navigating a difficult political transition. While there have been gains in poverty reduction, public trust in government has declined sharply, and the economy has stalled. The COVID-19 pandemic and more recently the effects of the war in Ukraine also exacerbated stresses on the economy, the public finances, and public trust in government. Partly as result of these trends, recent political events since July 25 2021 have marked a break with the 2014 constitutional model, and created great uncertainty regarding the future direction of Tunisia’s transition. At the time of writing, it is still uncertain what form Tunisia’s new political and constitutional model will take in coming years. The Tunisia SCD takes a ten-year view of trends in Tunisia since 2011, drawing comparisons with other comparable countries, and suggesting possible future pathways. The World Bank Group undertakes SCDs as a diagnostic exercise to identify key challenges and opportunities to accelerate progress towards rebuilding trust and meeting citizen aspirations, and ultimately to contribute to the World Bank Group’s twin goals of ending absolute poverty and boosting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. It is intended to become a reference point for consultations on priorities for World Bank Group country engagement. It is also intended as a contribution to the public debate about Tunisia’s path forward. This longer term perspective means that the Tunisia SCD does not place a heavy emphasis on recent events, but rather seeks to situate them in the broader context of trends in equitable growth, poverty reduction, and state capability.
Lebanon Public Finance Review: Ponzi Finance?

(Washington, DC, 2022-07) World Bank

The Public Finance Review (PFR) analyzes Lebanon’s public finances over a long horizon, to understand the roots of the fiscal profligacy and its eventual insolvency. To do so, the PFR links three critical elements in three Sections. Section I: Fiscal Policy in the Second Republic; Section II: Macro-Financial Restructuring; Section III: Public Service Non-Delivery. A fourth critical element is geopolitics, which is beyond the scope of the PFR. Taken together, these form critical determinants of the outcomes for any future socio-political-economic re-configuration.
Tunisia Economic Monitor, Summer 2022: Navigating the Crisis during Uncertain Times

(Washington, DC, 2022-07) World Bank

The war in Ukraine and rising commodity prices have exacerbated the vulnerabilities of the Tunisian economy in the first months of 2022. The impact of the war began to be felt as the trade deficit widened by 56 percent in the first six months of 2022 reaching 8.1 percent of GDP. Lower oil and gas production and increased demand for energy and agricultural products have exacerbated the vulnerability of the trade balance to the vagaries of international markets. With a challenging global environment, the economic recovery appears weaker than previously forecast.