Stand alone books
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Publication
Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies
(World Bank : Washington, DC, 2023-03-27)A structural growth slowdown is underway across the world: at current trends, the global potential growth rate is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. Nearly all the forces that have powered growth and prosperity since the early 1990s have weakened, not only because of a series of shocks to the global economy over the past three years. A persistent and broad-based decline in long-term growth prospects imperils the ability of emerging market and developing economies to combat poverty, tackle climate change, and meet other key development objectives. These challenges call for an ambitious policy response at the national and global levels. This book presents the first detailed analysis of the growth slowdown and a rich menu of policy options to deliver better growth outcomes. -
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Fintech and the Future of Finance: Market and Policy Implications
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-10)Fintech—the application of digital technology to financial services—is reshaping the future of finance. Digital technologies are revolutionizing payments, lending, investment, insurance, and other financial products and services—and the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated this process. Digitalization of financial services and money is helping to bridge gaps in access to financial services for households and firms and is promoting economic development. Improved access to basic financial services translates into better firm productivity and growth for micro and small businesses, as well as higher incomes and resilience to improve the lives of the poor. Technology can lower transaction costs by overcoming geographical access barriers; increasing the speed, security, and transparency of transactions; and allowing for more tailored financial services that better serve consumers, including the poor. Women can especially benefit. Yet too many people and firms still lack access to essential financial services that could help them thrive. It is time for policy makers to embrace fintech opportunities and implement policies that enable and encourage safe financial innovation and adoption. Fintech and the Future of Finance: Market and Policy Implications explores the implications of fintech and the digital transformation of financial services for market outcomes, on the one hand, and regulation and supervision, on the other hand—and how these interact. The report, which provides a high-level perspective for senior policy makers, is accompanied by notes that focus on salient issues for a more technical audience. As the financial sector continues to transform itself, policy trade-offs will evolve, and regulators will need to ensure that market outcomes remain aligned with core policy objectives. Several policy implications emerge. 1. Manage risks, while fostering beneficial innovation and competition. 2. Broaden monitoring horizons and reassess regulatory perimeters. 3. Review regulatory, supervisory, and oversight frameworks. 4. Be mindful of evolving policy trade-offs as fintech adoption deepens. 5. Monitor market structure and conduct to maintain competition. 6. Modernize and open financial infrastructures. 7. Ensure public money remains fit for the digital world. 8. Pursue strong cross-border coordination and sharing of information and best practices. -
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Collapse and Recovery: How the COVID-19 Pandemic Eroded Human Capital and What to Do about It
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023)Worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic has been an enormous shock to mortality, economies, and daily life. But what has received insufficient attention is the impact of the pandemic on the accumulation of human capital—the health, education, and skills—of young people. How large was the setback, and how far are we still from a recovery? Collapse and Recovery estimates the impacts of the pandemic on the human capital of young children, school-age children, and youth and discusses the urgent actions needed to reverse the damage. It shows that there was a collapse of human capital and that, unless that collapse is remedied, it is a time bomb for countries. Specifically, the report documents alarming declines in cognitive and social-emotional development among young children, which could translate into a 25 percent reduction in their earnings as adults. It finds that 1 billion children in low- and middle-income countries missed at least one year of in-person schooling. And despite enormous efforts in remote learning, children did not learn during the unprecedentedly long school closures, which could reduce future lifetime earnings around the world by US$21 trillion. The report quantifies the dramatic drops in employment and skills among youth that resulted from the pandemic as well as the substantial increase in the number of youth neither employed nor enrolled in education or training. In all of these age groups, the impacts of the pandemic were consistently worse for children from poorer backgrounds. These losses call for immediate action. The good news is that evidence-based policies can recover these losses. Collapse and Recovery reviews governments’ responses to the pandemic, assessing why there was a collapse in human capital accumulation, what was missing in the policy architecture to protect human capital during the crisis, and how governments can better prepare to withstand future shocks. It offers concrete policy recommendations to recover losses in human capital—programs that will end up paying for themselves in the long term. To better prepare for future shocks such as climate change and wars, the report emphasizes the need for solutions that bring health, education, and social protection programs together in an integrated human development system. If countries fail to act, the losses in human capital documented in this report will become permanent and last for multiple generations. The time to act is now. -
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Silver Opportunity: Building Integrated Services for Older Adults around Primary Health Care
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2023)We live in a rapidly aging world, in which people who are age 60 and older outnumber children under the age of five. This book reveals large and growing gaps in care for older adults in countries at all income levels and shows how to leverage reforms for improving health outcomes for older adults and create healthier, more prosperous communities. Aimed at policy makers and other health and development stakeholders who want to promote healthier aging, Silver Opportunity compiles the latest evidence on care needs and gaps for aging populations. It argues that primary health care should be the cornerstone of integrated service delivery for older people, but that primary health care systems must first build their capacity to respond to older people's health needs. It presents an original framework for policy action to advance primary health care–centered, integrated senior care; documents the experiences of pioneering countries in delivering community-based care to older people; and provides recommendations for decision-makers. The framework presents four policy levers with which to improve health care for seniors—financing, innovation, regulation, and evaluation and measurement—or FIRE. Finally, the book posits that by acting now, countries can leverage population aging to accelerate progress toward health equity and universal health coverage. -
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Commodity Markets: Evolution, Challenges and Policies
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-12)Commodity markets are integral to the global economy. Understanding what drives developments of these markets is critical to the design of policy frameworks that facilitate the economic objectives of sustainable growth, inflation stability, poverty reduction, food security, and the mitigation of climate change. This study is the first comprehensive analysis examining market and policy developments for all commodity groups, including energy, metals, and agriculture, over the past century. It finds that, while the quantity of commodities consumed has risen enormously, driven by population and income growth, the relative importance of commodities has shifted over time, as technological innovation created new uses for some materials and facilitated substitution among commodities. The study also shows that commodity markets are heterogeneous in terms of their drivers, price behavior, and macroeconomic impact on emerging markets and developing economies, and that the relationship between economic growth and commodity demand varies widely across countries, depending on their stage of economic development. Policy frameworks that enable countercyclical macroeconomic responses have become increasingly common—and beneficial. Other policy tools have had mixed outcomes. -
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Making the Most of the African Continental Free Trade Area: Leveraging Trade and Foreign Direct Investment to Boost Growth and Reduce Poverty
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-06-30)The creation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provides a unique opportunity to boost growth, cut poverty, and reduce Africa’s dependence on the boom and-bust commodity cycle. A World Bank (2020) report estimates that the AfCFTA has the potential to raise income in the continent by 7 percent by 2035 and lift 40 million people out of extreme poverty, mainly by spurring intraregional trade (termed the “AfCFTA trade scenario” for purposes of this analysis). Reductions in nontariff barriers on goods and services and improvements in trade facilitation measures will account for about two thirds of the US$450 billion in potential income gains by removing long delays across most of the continent’s borders and lowering compliance costs in trade, making it easier for African businesses to become integrated into regional and global supply chains. This report builds on that earlier study by including potential gains arising from greater flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), termed the “AfCFTA FDI broadscenario,” and from deeper integration beyond trade, the “AfCFTA FDI deep scenario.” FDI has traditionally been low in Africa. The AfCFTA is likely to attract cross-border investment by eliminating tariff and nontariff barriers and replacing the existing patchwork of bilateral and regional trade deals with a single, unified market. Investors in any one of 55 member countries will have access to a continent of 1.3 billion people with a combined GDP of US$3.4 trillion. Integration in global and regional value chains offers a further magnet for FDI and the jobs, investment, and know-how that FDI brings. -
Publication
The Global Findex Database 2021: Financial Inclusion, Digital Payments, and Resilience in the Age of COVID-19
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-06-29)The fourth edition of the Global Findex offers a lens into how people accessed and used financial services during the COVID-19 pandemic, when mobility restrictions and health policies drove increased demand for digital services of all kinds. The Global Findex is the world’s most comprehensive database on financial inclusion. It is also the only global demand-side data source allowing for global and regional cross-country analysis to provide a rigorous and multidimensional picture of how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage financial risks. Global Findex 2021 data were collected from national representative surveys of about 128,000 adults in more than 120 economies. The latest edition follows the 2011, 2014, and 2017 editions, and it includes a number of new series measuring financial health and resilience and contains more granular data on digital payment adoption, including merchant and government payments. The Global Findex is an indispensable resource for financial service practitioners, policy makers, researchers, and development professionals. -
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Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19: Implications for Trade and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-03-04)Global value chains (GVCs) have driven dramatic expansions in trade, productivity, and economic growth in developing countries over the past three decades. Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19: Implications for Trade and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries examines the economic impact of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic on GVCs and explores whether they can continue to be a driver of trade and development. The book undertakes the following: • Assesses what the impact of previous crises, such as the global financial crisis of 2008–09, can say about of the resilience of GVC firms to shocks • Examines what high-frequency data on trade flows can show about the impact of COVID-19 during the sharp global recession of 2020 • Uses discussions with GVC firms to gain a deeper understanding of the impacts of—and their responses to—the COVID-19 shock • Explores simulations from a global economic model to assess the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on low- and middle-income countries and key factors shaping the global economy, including the evolving role of China, the rise of trade restrictions, and policy responses to global warming • Asks what steps countries and international institutions can take to enhance the resilience of GVCs in low-income countries to future shocks. The analysis shows that well-operating GVCs are a source of resilience more than a source of vulnerability. Moreover, steps to maintain and enhance trade contribute to managing a crisis and recovery, while measures to reshore production make all countries worse off. This economic crisis offers countries an opportunity to reshape the global economy into a greener, more resilient, and inclusive system that is better equipped for a changing world. Trade is a powerful tool for achieving this aim. -
Publication
Innovations in Tax Compliance: Building Trust, Navigating Politics, and Tailoring Reform
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-17)Recent decades have seen important progress in strengthening country tax systems. Yet many areas of reform have remained stubbornly resistant to major improvements. Overall, revenue collection still falls short of that needed for effective governance and service delivery. Tax collection is too often riddled with high rates of evasion among large corporations and the rich and by disproportionate, though often hidden, burdens on lower-income groups. As countries around the world deal with the large debt burdens induced by COVID-19, an in-depth look at how to strengthen tax systems is especially timely. Innovations in Tax Compliance: Building Trust, Navigating Politics, and Tailoring Reform takes a fresh look at tax reform. The authors draw on recent research and experience for their new conceptual framework to guide more effective approaches to reform. Building on the achievements of recent decades, they argue for a greater emphasis on the overlapping goals of building trust, navigating political resistance, and tailoring reform to unique local contexts—an emphasis achieved by identifying the most binding constraints on reform. This focus not only can lead to greater compliance, a fairer system, and higher revenues, but also can contribute to building state capacity, sustained political support for further reforms, and a stronger fiscal contract between citizens and governments. -
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Africa in the New Trade Environment: Market Access in Troubled Times
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-10)Sub-Saharan Africa represents only a small share of global production and trade while hosting half of the extreme poor worldwide. To catch up with the rest of the world, the continent has no alternative: it must undertake reforms to scale up its supply capacity while better linking its production and trade to the global economy. If it does so, it stands to gain from unlimited demand and innovation along the supply chain. Some progress has been made over the past decade, with the region’s exports and imports growing rapidly. Because most African economies rely heavily on trade for a large share of national income, they will also be more vulnerable to the trade disruptions of external shocks, as illustrated by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Africa in the New Trade Environment: Market Access in Troubled Times provides a comprehensive, state-of-the-art analysis by a team of renowned trade economists who present a strategy to bolster Sub-Saharan Africa’s market access in the current global environment.