Publication: Jamaica - Systematic Country Diagnostic: Boosting Recovery and Sustainable Economic Growth
Loading...
Date
2022-10-31
ISSN
Published
2022-10-31
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This first Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Jamaica comes at a pivotal time. The country is seeking a return to the pre-COVID-19 path of fiscal consolidation amid a slow COVID vaccine roll-out, high inflationary pressures, and persistent structural constraints to growth.1 COVID-19 laid bare existing vulnerabilities, causing real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to contract a record 10 percent in 2020, with a near closure of most tourism activities depressing incomes for more than 40 percent of the country’s workers. The government deployed countercyclical fiscal measures to stem the economic downturn, while strengthening the health sector, supporting the financial sector, and mitigating the impact on poor households through further income support. Inflation had surged to 11.8 percent as of April 2022, posing a growing threat to the purchasing power of the poor in particular. The monetary authorities have been proactive, but rising interest rates could undermine the ongoing recovery. In 2020, the government committed to ambitious targets under the Paris Agreement to transform Jamaica into a low-emissions and climate-resilient economy
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2022. Jamaica - Systematic Country Diagnostic: Boosting Recovery and Sustainable Economic Growth. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38266 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Belize Systematic Country Diagnostic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01-29)Belize has a rich history that dates back thousands of years. The country was first inhabited by the Mayans with records of their presence dating from 1500 BC. The first recorded European settlement was established circa 1638 by the British who called the country the Colony of British Honduras. The official name of the territory was changed from British Honduras to Belize in June 1973, and full independence was granted on September 21, 1981. There were several obstacles in the path toward independence, as illustrated by Guatemala's long-standing claim to the entire territory. It was only in November 1980, after several frustrated negotiations with Guatemala that Belizean diplomacy managed to obtain international support that led to the United Nations passing of a resolution that demanded the independence of Belize, but it was only in 1992 that Guatemala formally recognized Belize’s independence. After independence, Belize successfully implemented a development strategy which emphasized economic diversification and private sector development at a time where the terms of trade were favorable to the country. As a small, open economy, that is also extremely vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters, Belize’s ability to promote faster poverty reduction and greater shared prosperity will depend on how well the country deals with its main sources of vulnerability. In addition to weaknesses in infrastructure and in the skills of the labor force, several studies have pinpointed crime and violence and problems in the financial sector as important deterrents to growth. The analysis in this report confirms the centrality of these two factors. The predicament in the financial sector is largely driven by the small economic size of the country and the lack of competition in the banking sector, a common feature in small state economies that limits the availability of credit to small and medium enterprises. Stability issues in the sector complicate matters as these impose non-negligible risks to the health of the financial sector. On the other hand, the rise in the inflow of migrants from neighboring Central American countries with a history of crime and violence has been raised as a potential cause for high crime rates in Belize, but there is not enough evidence to substantiate that claim at this point. Policy interventions that could help halt the rise in criminality rates include ramping up the quality of education, keeping children at school, promoting education equivalency programs and job training, besides more direct approaches such as investing in safe neighborhood programs.Publication Bangladesh - Systematic Country Diagnostic(Washington, DC, 2021-11-08)This World Bank Group Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) 2021 Update presents a diagnostic of Bangladesh’s growth and poverty reduction since the previous diagnostic in 2015. It identifies emerging opportunities and challenges for the next decade as the country recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, graduates from least-developed-country (LDC) status, and aspires to become an upper middle-income country (UMIC) by 2031.Publication Systematic Country Diagnostic for Uzbekistan(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-05-20)This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) explores how Uzbekistan can consolidate its recent achievements and accelerate progress on the twin goals of eradicating extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity. The SCD is organized into five chapters. Chapter one frames the issues of poverty reduction and shared prosperity, and situates them in the context of Uzbekistan’s recent development. It reviews the status and drivers of progress in these areas, identifies analytical constraints, and highlights areas for further study. Chapter two describes the necessary conditions for sustaining rapid economic growth and robust quality job creation. It underscores the importance of expanding private-sector participation and investment in key economic sectors. Chapter three considers how a well-functioning labor market and access to essential public services can enhance the inclusiveness of growth. Chapter four analyzes threats to the sustainability of Uzbekistan’s recent gains over both the medium and the long term. Chapter five concludes by examining the constraints to growth and development revealed by the analysis, and it proposes a framework for prioritizing policy actions designed to address them.Publication Jamaica - Country Economic Memorandum : Unlocking Growth(World Bank, 2011-05-26)The objective of this report is to identify the main obstacles to longer term growth in Jamaica. The report takes a holistic approach, examining a large set of economic and social factors that may be hindering growth and filtering them through a growth diagnostic analysis to narrow the focus to those that constrain growth the most. Building on the results of the growth diagnostic analysis, the report then discusses each key obstacle and identifies possible reform scenarios to unlock growth in Jamaica. The report also examines how the country might further accelerate growth through private sector development. This Country Economic Memorandum assesses the key causes that have stalled Jamaica's economy over the past four decades and presents recommendations to unlock its growth potential. There is a basis for optimism in that Jamaica has had political stability, high rates of private investment, significant reduction of poverty in rural and urban areas, and improved income distribution. Nonetheless, this report shows that, since independence in 1962, long-term economic growth has been disappointing and underperformed most other countries. The findings of this study indicate that Jamaica's disappointing economic performance is traceable to low productivity caused by (i) deficiencies in human capital and entrepreneurship that are due to high migration rates and to deficiencies in the quality of education and training offered to the labor force, among other factors, (ii) a high rate of crime, and (iii) distortionary tax incentives combined with 'enclave' development that does not spill over to the rest of the economy.Publication Jamaica - The Road to Sustained Growth : Country Economic Memorandum(Washington, DC, 2003-12-04)Jamaica's poor growth performance has a number of well-known explanations, but they need to be supplemented for the latter half of the 1990s, by the loss of competitiveness. The negligible (measured) GDP growth in the 1990s is usually attributed to two factors: an adverse external climate and the financial crisis that arose from bank privatization to poorly capitalized investors, and, financial liberalization, unaccompanied by an appropriate regulatory strengthening. The poverty headcount however, was halved between 1992 and 1998, despite negligible measured GDP growth, which can be largely explained by a conjunction of several factors particular to the period: underestimated GDP growth, judging from the growth in consumption of power, and meat and fish, as well as the rapid growth of currency usage; inflation, which hurts the poor disproportionately, fell sharply; the relative price of food declined, owing largely to trade liberalization and the appreciation in the real exchange rate; other factors may have been the rise in real wages, and remittances. But two important poverty-reducing factors are unlikely to continue to operate in the future, which means that further reduction of poverty is likely to depend on achievement of sustained growth. The report questions Jamaica's self-sustaining and job-creating growth restoration, and argues that this requires improving international competitiveness and productivity, while also addressing short-term exigencies. The policy options are grouped into three categories - those necessary to limit the risk of a crisis and its effect, with a likely immediate impact; those likely to have an impact in the short-term; and, those likely to have an impact in the medium and long-term, but on which action is nonetheless needed now. The report suggests a 'bandwagon' approach to reforms, with policy actions needed on several fronts, in order to improve prospects for sustained growth, including measures that help avoid crises, since crises hurt the poor and damage growth prospects. Such an approach could involve: crisis-proofing actions; actions with short-term impact; and, actions with medium-long-term impact. Given that policy choices are likely to be difficult, an approach based on social dialogue and consensus-building is essential to creating ownership for future reforms by all stakeholders, and for maintaining and improving social peace.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2004(World Bank, 2003)Too often, services fail poor people in access, in quality, and in affordability. But the fact that there are striking examples where basic services such as water, sanitation, health, education, and electricity do work for poor people means that governments and citizens can do a better job of providing them. Learning from success and understanding the sources of failure, this year’s World Development Report, argues that services can be improved by putting poor people at the center of service provision. How? By enabling the poor to monitor and discipline service providers, by amplifying their voice in policymaking, and by strengthening the incentives for providers to serve the poor. Freedom from illness and freedom from illiteracy are two of the most important ways poor people can escape from poverty. To achieve these goals, economic growth and financial resources are of course necessary, but they are not enough. The World Development Report provides a practical framework for making the services that contribute to human development work for poor people. With this framework, citizens, governments, and donors can take action and accelerate progress toward the common objective of poverty reduction, as specified in the Millennium Development Goals.Publication Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022: Correcting Course provides the first comprehensive analysis of the pandemic’s toll on poverty in developing countries. It identifies how governments can optimize fiscal policy to help correct course. Fiscal policies offset the impact of COVID-19 on poverty in many high-income countries, but those policies offset barely one quarter of the pandemic’s impact in low-income countries and lower-middle-income countries. Improving support to households as crises continue will require reorienting protective spending away from generally regressive and inefficient subsidies and toward a direct transfer support system—a first key priority. Reorienting fiscal spending toward supporting growth is a second key priority identified by the report. Some of the highest-value public spending often pays out decades later. Amid crises, it is difficult to protect such investments, but it is essential to do so. Finally, it is not enough just to spend wisely - when additional revenue does need to be mobilized, it must be done in a way that minimizes reductions in poor people’s incomes. The report highlights how exploring underused forms of progressive taxation and increasing the efficiency of tax collection can help in this regard. Poverty and Shared Prosperity is a biennial series that reports on global trends in poverty and shared prosperity. Each report also explores a central challenge to poverty reduction and boosting shared prosperity, assessing what works well and what does not in different settings. By bringing together the latest evidence, this corporate flagship report provides a foundation for informed advocacy around ending extreme poverty and improving the lives of the poorest in every country in the world. For more information, please visit worldbank.org/poverty-and-shared-prosperity.Publication Empowerment in Practice : From Analysis to Implementation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006)This book represents an effort to present an easily accessible framework to readers, especially those for whom empowerment remains a puzzling development concern, conceptually and in application. The book is divided into two parts. Part 1 explains how the empowerment framework can be used for understanding, measuring, monitoring, and operationalizing empowerment policy and practice. Part 2 presents summaries of each of the five country studies, using them to discuss how the empowerment framework can be applied in very different country and sector contexts and what lessons can be learned from these test cases. While this book can offer only a limited empirical basis for the positive association between empowerment and development outcomes, it does add to the body of work supporting the existence of such a relationship. Perhaps more importantly, it also provides a framework for future research to test the association and to prioritize practical interventions seeking to empower individuals and groups.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Impact Evaluation in Practice, Second Edition(Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank and World Bank, 2016-09-13)The second edition of the Impact Evaluation in Practice handbook is a comprehensive and accessible introduction to impact evaluation for policy makers and development practitioners. First published in 2011, it has been used widely across the development and academic communities. The book incorporates real-world examples to present practical guidelines for designing and implementing impact evaluations. Readers will gain an understanding of impact evaluations and the best ways to use them to design evidence-based policies and programs. The updated version covers the newest techniques for evaluating programs and includes state-of-the-art implementation advice, as well as an expanded set of examples and case studies that draw on recent development challenges. It also includes new material on research ethics and partnerships to conduct impact evaluation. The handbook is divided into four sections: Part One discusses what to evaluate and why; Part Two presents the main impact evaluation methods; Part Three addresses how to manage impact evaluations; Part Four reviews impact evaluation sampling and data collection. Case studies illustrate different applications of impact evaluations. The book links to complementary instructional material available online, including an applied case as well as questions and answers. The updated second edition will be a valuable resource for the international development community, universities, and policy makers looking to build better evidence around what works in development.