Serial

Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022 : Pandemic, War, Recession : Drivers of Aluminum and Copper Prices

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collection.link.32
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2140
collection.name.32
Global Economic Prospects
dc.contributor.author
World Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned
2022-10-16T15:39:01Z
dc.date.available
2022-10-16T15:39:01Z
dc.date.issued
2022-10-26
dc.date.lastModified
2022-10-27T05:10:35Z
dc.description.abstract
A sharp global growth slowdown and concerns about an impending global recession are weighing on commodity prices. Some energy prices remain elevated, however, amid geopolitical tensions and persistent supply disruptions. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $92/bbl in 2023 and ease to $80/bbl in 2024. Agricultural and metal prices are projected to decline 5 and 15 percent, respectively, in 2023 before stabilizing in 2024. The outlook is subject to multiple risks in a highly uncertain environment. They include worsening global growth prospects, including the pace of recovery in China; macroeconomic uncertainties; a prolonged and deeper conflict in Ukraine; and, in the case of food commodities, the ongoing La Niña weather pattern along with trade policies. A Special Focus section investigates the drivers of aluminum and copper prices. It finds that the price rebound after the pandemic was mainly driven by the economic recovery, but supply factors also contributed about one-quarter to the rebound. Since March 2022, a steep global growth slowdown, an unwinding of supply constraints, and concerns about an imminent global recession contributed to the plunge in metal prices. It concludes that for metal exporters, the energy transition may bring windfalls, but it could also increase their exposure to price volatility.
en
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38160
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
Washington, DC : World Bank
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
COMMODITY PRICES
dc.subject
ENERGY PRICES
dc.subject
OIL AND GAS
dc.subject
OPEC
dc.subject
OPEC+
dc.subject
AGRICULTURE PRICES
dc.subject
METAL PRICES
dc.subject
WAR IN UKRAINE
dc.subject
RECESSION
dc.subject
PANDEMIC
dc.title
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022
en
dc.title.subtitle
Pandemic, War, Recession : Drivers of Aluminum and Copper Prices
en
dc.type
Serial
en
okr.date.disclosure
2022-10-26
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Publication
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.language.supported
en
okr.topic
Energy :: Oil & Gas
okr.topic
Energy :: Energy Markets
okr.topic
Agriculture :: Commodity Risk Management
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Inflation
okr.unit
EFI - Prospects Group (EPGDR)

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