Publication: Can cities bounce back better from COVID-19? Reflections from emerging post-pandemic recovery plans and trade-offs
Loading...
Files in English
969 downloads
Published
2022-10-01
ISSN
Date
2022-05-24
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
As cities plan for post-COVID recovery, many questions preoccupy mayors, policymakers, planners, and developers. This article examines COVID-19’s impact on cities, drawing on local governments’ developing policies and responses to identify some of the emerging trends and trade-offs. Overall, city recovery will likely involve some transformation to land uses and real estate markets, with increasing demand for urban amenities and nature, and with policies in support of affordable housing, slum upgrading and informal sector employment, to achieve more liveable and inclusive cities. This in turn will depend on the policies, planning, finance, digital infrastructure, and governance systems in place. While many city challenges predate COVID-19, they were exacerbated by the pandemic. The extent to which cities, and especially cities in the global South, will overcome such challenges will depend on political will and the implementation of targeted policies and low-cost investments in sustainability, liveability and inclusion.
Link to Data Set
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-09)This paper examines the effectiveness of income protection and job protection policies for the post-pandemic economic recovery of the second half of 2020 through 2021. The paper is based on a new data set of the budgets of social protection programs implemented as a part of the pandemic stimulus package in 154 countries. The empirical analysis shows that, in the short run, higher expenditure on job protection measures is associated with more robust gross domestic product growth, increased employment, and decreased inactivity and poverty rates compared to the expansion of income protection programs. Both policies had a significant economic impact only in countries with weaker pre-pandemic social insurance systems. In countries with broader coverage of the social insurance system, the income and job protection programs appear to have had a limited impact on post-pandemic recovery. Because the structural economic changes induced by the pandemic are expected to materialize fully in several years, more research is needed to understand the longer-term effects of job protection and income protection policies on labor markets and economic recovery.Publication A Post-Pandemic, Nature-Based Tourism and Conservation(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07-26)The Rwandan economy has grown well above average compared to its peers and the world over for the past two decades achieving growth rates of more than 8% regularly with 2019 being 12.5 percent. While these growth rates have been achieved from a very low base, it has been the catalyst for a quadruple increase in the GDP/capita from $268 in 2000 to $837 in 2019. The prevailing Covid-19 pandemic, however, is undoing much of the hard-fought gains made in development over the past two decades. As a case in point, the GDP/capita declined to $816 in 2020, a decline in absolute terms of $21/capita, the largest decline since 1999. Additionally, thetourism sector saw a decline in the number of visitors to the National Parks of 67% to levels last seen in the early part of this millennium (RDB 2020). This decline coincides with loses in income and jobs. In additional there has been the complete collapse of the highly praised and well-functioning revenue sharing model whereby local communities benefitted from the proceeds the NationalParks were generating. The decline in park revenue also resulted in the conservation sector’s decreased ability to manage and maintain the National Parks. This has had a debilitating impact on the livelihoods of people living adjacent and near the conservation areas as well as all the people employed as well as enterprises within the tourism and conservation sector and value chain.Publication Costs and Trade-Offs in the Fight Against the COVID-19 Pandemic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05-15)The world is experiencing the worst pandemic crisis in one hundred years. By mid-April 2020, more than 80 percent of countries around the world had imposed strict containment and mitigation measures to control the spread of the disease. The economic fallout has been immense, with dire consequences for poverty and welfare, particularly in developing countries. This Brief first documents the global economic contraction and its potential impact on developing countries regarding macroeconomic performance, poverty rates, and incomes of the poor and vulnerable. It then argues that the pandemic crisis may hurt low- and middle-income countries disproportionately because most of them lack the resources and capacity to deal with a systemic shock of this nature. Their large informal sectors, limited fiscal space, and poor governance make developing countries particularly vulnerable to the pandemic and the measures to contain it. Next, the Brief reviews recent epidemiological and macroeconomic modelling and evidence on the costs and benefits of different mitigation and suppression strategies. It explores how these cost-benefit considerations vary across countries at different income levels. The Brief argues that, having more limited resources and capabilities but also younger populations, developing countries face different trade-offs in their fight against COVID-19 (coronavirus)than advanced countries do. For developing countries, the trade-off is not just between lives and the economy; rather, the challenge is preserving lives and avoiding crushed livelihoods. Different trade-offs call for context-specific strategies. For countries with older populations and higher incomes, more radical suppression measures may be optimal; while for poorer, younger countries, more moderate measures may be best. Having different trade-offs, however, provides no grounds for complacency for developing countries. The Brief concludes that the goal of saving lives and livelihoods is possible with economic and public health policies tailored to the reality of developing countries. Since "smart" mitigation strategies (such as shielding the vulnerable and identifying and isolating the infected) pose substantial challenges for implementation, a combination of ingenuity for adaptation, renewed effort by national authorities, and support of the international community is needed. The lockdowns may be easing, but the fight against the pandemic has not been won yet. People and economies will remain vulnerable until a vaccine or treatment are developed. The challenge in the next few months will be to revive the economy while mitigating new waves of infection.Publication Cities, Crowding, and the Coronavirus(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04-21)Today, over 4 billion people around the world—more than half the global population—live in cities. By 2050, with the urban population more than doubling its current size, nearly 7 of 10 people in the world will live in cities. Evidence from today's developed countries and rapidly emerging economies shows that urbanization and the development of cities is a source of dynamism that can lead to enhanced productivity. In fact, no country in the industrial age has ever achieved significant economic growth without urbanization. The underlying driver of this dynamism is the ability of cities to bring people together. Social and economic interactions are the hallmark of city life, making people more productive and often creating a vibrant market for innovations by entrepreneurs and investors. International evidence suggests that the elasticity of income per capita with respect to city population is between 3 percent and 8 percent (Rosenthal & Strange 2003). Each doubling of city size raises its productivity by 5 percent. But the coronavirus pandemic is now seriously limiting social interactions. With no vaccine available, prevention through containment and social distancing, along with frequent handwashing, appear to be, for now, the only viable strategies against the virus. The goal is to slow transmission and avoid overwhelming health systems that have finite resources. Hence non-essential businesses have been closed and social distancing measures, including lockdowns, are being applied in many countries. Will such measures defeat the virus in dense urban areas? In principle, yes. Wealthier people in dense neighborhoods can isolate themselves while having amenities and groceries delivered to them. Many can connect remotely to work, and some can even afford to live without working for a time. But poorer residents of crowded neighborhoods cannot afford such luxuries. They are forced to leave their home every day to go to work, buy groceries, and do laundry. This is especially true in low-income neighborhoods of developing countries – many of which are slums and informal settlements. In fact, 60 percent of Africa’s urban population is packed into slums - a far larger share than the average 34 percent seen in other developing countries (United Nations 2015). With people tightly packed together, the resulting crowding increases contagion risk from the coronavirus.Publication What Can Financing Schemes and Payment Systems Do to Improve Pandemic Response?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-12-06)The budget allocation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic indicates an increase in both health and non-health sectors, together with policy prioritization to mitigate socioeconomic damage globally. In contrast with responses to previous economic crises, many governments instead expanded their budget, resulting in increased support for the health care sector. However, a significant portion of the budget was allocated to economic stimulus and industrial investment. Accordingly, the budget allocated to prevention and response to infectious diseases in the health care sector was relatively small, or it was spent from ear-marked resources such as social health insurance. However, health crises such as the pandemic required an essential workforce and additional services to protect population health and expedite the socioeconomic recovery. In this sense, strengthening the sustainability and resilience of the health care system was a way toward national security and economic growth. Governments would need to allocate additional budgets to the health sector in response to health crisis, and mobilize earmarked funds collected from social insurance contributions. The latter enables the provision of essential health services with or without governments’ financial support. A mixed payment system could boost surge capacity in the health care system and provide incentives for medical providers.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.