Tracking Global Social Protection Responses to Price Shocks

Abstract

This note provides an update of social protection responses to the food, fuel, fertilizer, and other price shocks sparked or accelerated by the Ukraine war. The vast majority of measures were introduced in early 2022 (February-April), although some specific interventions to mitigate prices were included in late 2021. This initiative complements other two ongoing thematic trackers of country-level action on how social protection is being leveraged in crisis situations – one on Covid-19 responses (16 versions) and another one focused on displacement as a result of the Ukraine war (3 versions). Data is preliminary and meant to elicit comments, additions, integration, and revisions to be incorporated in next living paper versions. Specifically, the note tracks four broad measures, namely social assistance, social insurance, labor markets, and subsidies. The latter includes five subcategories, i.e., fuel, food, fertilizers and agriculture inputs, and fees subsidies. Data and analysis are preliminary, and more information on specific measures will be provided as data becomes available.

Between September and December 2022, the number of social protection and other related measures announced or implemented in response to inflation rose by about 67%. The latest tally includes 1,016 responses across 170 economies. Overall, subsidies claim 34% of such measures and take four main forms (fuel, food, fertilizers, and various fee subsidies). Social assistance accounts for 29% of responses, 78% of which is provided in the form of cash transfers. Tax and trade-related measures represent 21% and 6% of global responses, respectively. Active labor market policies and social insurance claim a share of 5% each. Based on coverage data from 93 countries, social protection programs cover or are planning to cover 1.05 billion people (or about 13.5% of the world’s population). Similarly, based on expenditure data from 382 programs across 125 economies, a total of $710.6 billion is being invested in social protection responses. This involves an average country spending of 0.74% of its GDP. The average size of both social assistance and subsidy transfers represents about a quarter of the daily median income, while their average duration is 4.7 months. Over half of social assistance transfers are new (53%) and are provided on a one-off basis (51%).