Social Cohesion, Economic Security, and Forced Displacement in the Long-Run

Abstract

Millions of people around the world are internally displaced and yet—compared to other forms of wartime victimization—scholars know relatively little about the long-run consequences of displacement for victims. This gap in the literature is problematic since displacement is distinct from other forms of victimization and because IDPs face unique challenges in post-conflict transitions. This study contributes to the literature on the effects of displacement in three ways. First, the study brings to bear a unique sample of households in Colombia that is largely homogeneous along key confounders–mostly poor, rural, and conflict-afflicted— yet varies in their exposure to displacement. Next, the study draws on a rich set of covariates and outcomes to provide plausible estimates on the long-run effects of internal displacement, finding that a decade or more after displacement, victims experience substantial negative welfare effects yet exhibit higher levels of social cohesion than their counterparts. Finally, combining a prediction framework with interviews with key stakeholders and displacement victims, the study explores variation in outcomes among victims, particularly why some return home and seek reparations. The results reveal a wide assortment of consequences from displacement and should help inform policy-making bearing on support for internally displaced people.