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Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2022 : The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Commodity Markets

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collection.link.32
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2140
collection.name.32
Global Economic Prospects
dc.contributor.author
World Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned
2022-03-28T16:31:29Z
dc.date.available
2022-03-28T16:31:29Z
dc.date.issued
2022-04-26
dc.date.lastModified
2022-04-27T05:10:47Z
dc.description.abstract
The war in Ukraine has caused major supply disruptions and led to historically higher prices for a number of commodities. Most commodity prices are now expected to see sharp increases in 2022 and remain high in the medium term. The price of Brent crude oil is projected to average $100/bbl in 2022, a 40 percent increase from 2021. Non-energy prices are expected to rise by about 20 percent in 2022, with the largest increases in commodities where Russia or Ukraine are key exporters. Wheat prices in particular are forecast to increase more than 40 percent this year. While price pressures are expected to ease in 2023, commodity prices will remain much higher than previously expected. The outlook depends on the duration of the war and the severity of disruptions to commodity flows. A Special Focus section investigates the impact of the war on commodity markets and compares the current episode with previous price spikes. It finds that previous oil price spikes led to the emergence of new sources of supplies and reduced demand in response to efficiency improvements and substitution to other commodities. In the case of food, new land was made available for food production. For policymakers, a short-term priority is providing targeted support to poorer households facing higher food and energy prices. For longer-lasting solutions, they facilitate investment in new sources of zero-carbon energy.
en
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37223
dc.publisher
Washington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseries
Commodity Market Outlook;
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
OIL AND GAS
dc.subject
FOOD
dc.subject
COVID-19
dc.subject
COMMODITY PRICE FLUCTUATION
dc.subject
INFLATION EXPECTATION
dc.subject
ARMED CONFLICT
dc.subject
WAR
dc.title
Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2022
en
dc.title.subtitle
The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Commodity Markets
en
dc.type
Serial
en
okr.date.disclosure
2022-04-26
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.language.supported
en
okr.region.geographical
World
okr.topic
Agriculture :: Commodity Risk Management
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Inflation
okr.topic
Energy :: Oil & Gas
okr.topic
Agriculture :: Food Markets
okr.topic
Energy :: Energy Markets
okr.unit
EFI - Prospects Group (EPGDR)

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