Publication: Assessing Uzbekistan’s Transition: Country Economic Memorandum
Loading...
Published
2021-11-08
ISSN
Date
2021-12-06
Author(s)
Vatyan, Arman
Trushin, Eskender
Dalvit, Nicolo
Safarov, Maksudjon
Novikova, Marina
Ahmedov, Mohirjon
Manuilova, Natalia
Zorya, Sergiy
Editor(s)
Abstract
Uzbekistan’s transition from planning to market started almost thirty years ago following its independence from the Soviet Union. For most of this period, economic modernization and transformation were stalled, with little change in institutions and policies from those prevailing at the time of the planned economy. In late 2016, Uzbekistan surprised by launching reforms with a breadth and speed that at times exceeded the pace of those observed in some of the earlier reformers at a similar stage of the process. In November 2018, building on the results from more than a year of economic reforms, the government announced the agenda for the next phase of its bold and ambitious economic transformation. In terms of the pace of transition, Uzbekistan’s record has been mixed but appropriate, given that reforms are dependent on experience with markets and prices, initial conditions, and institutional strength. Before the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic started, the reform momentum was supported by comfortable external and fiscal buffers and a robust global economy. The buffers are still sizable, even with doubling of public debt since 2017, and a sign of strength but the pull from the global economy has been substantially diminished. The rest of the introduction reviews progress in the key areas of economic transformation.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Vatyan, Arman; Trushin, Eskender; Abdul-Hamid, Husein; Dalvit, Nicolo; Safarov, Maksudjon; Iootty, Mariana; Novikova, Marina; Ahmedov, Mohirjon; Manuilova, Natalia; Zorya, Sergiy; Nagaraj, Vinayak; Izvorski, Ivailo; Melecky, Martin. 2021. Assessing Uzbekistan’s Transition: Country Economic Memorandum. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36655 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Uzbekistan Public Expenditure Review(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12-31)This Public Expenditure Review (PER) takes stock of fiscal developments and institutions and analyzes the key issues that bear on the level, composition, challenges, and effectiveness of government spending and the stance of fiscal policy. Understanding these issues is essential, as new fiscal pressures are emerging in the process of economic transformation and as citizens demand higher quality of education and other public services. The fiscal reform agenda remains extensive but working on it will provide an opportunity to strengthen the effectiveness of government and boost inclusive economic growth. In the process of ongoing economic transformation, the government is facing several challenges in fiscal policy, for which this PER has developed policy options.Publication Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Firm Performance in Central Asia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-08-30)This paper studies the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the performance of firms in Central Asia. It uses unique data from the Business Pulse Survey run by the World Bank in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, which tracks the sales and employment—along with other main characteristics—of about 1,200 to 1,800 firms in a panel structure. The survey contains two waves before and one wave after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Using the difference-in-differences methodology in a regression setup, the analysis finds that Central Asian firms with pre-invasion trade links to Russia suffered greater drops in sales and employment after the invasion—even though exporters to Russia may have experienced, on average, higher sales during the studied period. Considering the pre-invasion digitization of firms, the findings show that digitization helped firms increase their average employment during the studied period. However, the analysis does not find any significant mitigating effect of digitalization associated with the impact of the invasion.Publication What Matters Most for Education Management Information Systems : A Framework Paper(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-06)The main objective of this paper is to outline what matters most for an effective education management information system (EMIS). It presents the conceptual background and operational tools for the Systems Approach for Better Education Results (SABER)-EMIS domain. These tools are intended for use by government education policy makers to assess policy areas of relevance to a country s EMIS against international best practices. This paper begins with an introduction of the domain and the rationale for an EMIS benchmarking tool. Chapter 1 then provides an overview of current data-related demands to improve education, explains how an EMIS meets those data demands, and highlights examples of specific system s in action. Chapter 2 outlines what matters in an EMIS, starting with an explanation of what comprises the construct validity and theoretical underpinnings for benchmarking an EMIS. This chapter shows that the guiding principles behind an EMIS drive actionable policies. A detailed description of four policy areas specifically, the enabling environment, system soundness, data quality, and utilization for decision making then follows in chapter 3. The chapter describes the rubric for the SABER-EMIS Tool and gives a brief overview of an EMIS benchmarking pilot, which demonstrated the feasibility of the concept. The last chapter describes how an EMIS is benchmarked, scored, and subsequently leads to a situation analysis. This assessment sequence provides an understanding of the strength and weaknesses of an EMIS system for fuller, more comprehensive depiction of its status. Overall, this paper evaluates whether a management information system is set up to use the information it generates for improving operational efficiency and educational quality.Publication Assessment Testing Can Be Used to Inform Policy Decisions : The Case of Jordan(2011-12-01)Over the past two decades, the Jordanian education system has made significant advances. Net enrollment in basic education increased from 89 percent in 2000 to 97 percent in 2006. Transition rates to secondary education increased from 63 to 79 percent in the same period. At the same time, Jordan made significant gains on international surveys of student achievement, with a particularly impressive gain of almost 30 points on the science portion of the Third International Mathematics and Science Study. Changes in test scores over time are presented and analyzed using decomposition analysis. The trends are related to policy changes over time. It is argued that benchmarking education systems and constant feedback between researchers and policymakers contributed to this achievement.Publication Steering the Human Development Strategy for a Sustainable Green Economy in the Slovak Republic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-05-17)The rippling effects of multiple overlapping crises on the economy, declining education outcomes, and inability of the education system to meet the upcoming needs of the labor market puts the Slovak Republic in a human capital crisis. There is a misalignment between the supply and outcomes of the education system and requirements of the labor market. Education-to-work pathways through vocational and tertiary education are insufficient to prepare students for the green economy transition. Education-to-work pathways need to be flexible to align worker choices with needs of the labor market. This policy note provides a deep dive into the education situation in the Slovak Republic and proposes specific policy recommendations aiming at the skilling and reskilling toward the green and digital agenda, utilizing European and international experiences in this area.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises : A Toolkit(Washington, DC, 2014-10-04)This Toolkit provides an overall framework with practical tools and information to help policymakers design and implement corporate governance reforms for state-owned enterprises. It covers the key elements of corporate governance, including legal and regulatory framework, state ownership arrangements, performance management systems, financial and fiscal discipline, boards of directors, transparency and disclosure, and protection of shareholders in mixed ownership companies. Experience shows that no one approach is universally applicable and the choice of measures depends on country and enterprise circumstances. The Toolkit thus provides a range of frameworks, concepts, case examples, checklists, and model documents that together aim to help government officials make the appropriate choices for their circumstances. The Toolkit concludes with guidance on managing the reform process, in particular how to prioritize and sequence reforms, build capacity, and engage with stakeholders.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Environmental, Social, and Governance Investing(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03-01)This primer responds to central banks’ growing demand for knowledge on social, governance, and environmental considerations (ESG) in the investment process. This area has gained traction in the last two decades. More recently, central banks’ interest in ESG has increased, but much of the information available is aimed at investors with different investment objectives and broadly diversified portfolios. The authors fill that information gap by reviewing the definitions of ESG and the main ESG investment approaches, including their applicability to asset classes. The authors then examine how foreign reserve managers can apply ESG investing in their reserve management operations. The authors find limited scope for implementing ESG strategies in reserve management, given that most central banks still invest primarily in sovereign bonds of major economies. Yet, the authors also identify opportunities and critical considerations for central banks interested in implementing ESG investing in their reserve management operations.Publication Empowerment in Practice : From Analysis to Implementation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006)This book represents an effort to present an easily accessible framework to readers, especially those for whom empowerment remains a puzzling development concern, conceptually and in application. The book is divided into two parts. Part 1 explains how the empowerment framework can be used for understanding, measuring, monitoring, and operationalizing empowerment policy and practice. Part 2 presents summaries of each of the five country studies, using them to discuss how the empowerment framework can be applied in very different country and sector contexts and what lessons can be learned from these test cases. While this book can offer only a limited empirical basis for the positive association between empowerment and development outcomes, it does add to the body of work supporting the existence of such a relationship. Perhaps more importantly, it also provides a framework for future research to test the association and to prioritize practical interventions seeking to empower individuals and groups.