Working Paper

How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022

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collection.link.5
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9
collection.name.5
Policy Research Working Papers
dc.contributor.author
Agarwal, Ruchir
dc.contributor.author
Reed, Tristan
dc.date.accessioned
2021-04-19T20:58:13Z
dc.date.available
2021-04-19T20:58:13Z
dc.date.issued
2021-04
dc.date.lastModified
2021-06-24T12:08:37Z
dc.description.abstract
How can the world reach herd immunity against COVID-19 before the second anniversary of the pandemic, or March 2022? A study of vaccine demand and supply answers this question. A target of vaccinating 60 percent of the population in each country by March 2022 is likely sufficient to achieve worldwide herd immunity under a baseline scenario with limited mutation. Achieving this target appears feasible given stated production capacity of vaccine manufacturers and the pace of current and historical vaccination campaigns. Considering existing pre-purchase contracts for vaccines, achieving this target requires addressing a procurement gap of just 350 million vaccine courses in low- and middle-income countries. Immediate additional donor funding of about $4 billion or in-kind donations of excess orders by high-income countries would be sufficient to close this gap. There are additional challenges along the path to achieving world-wide herd immunity---including supply chain issues, trade restrictions, vaccine delivery, and mutations. Overall however, this analysis suggests multilateral action now can bring an end to the acute phase of the pandemic early next year.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/181611618494084337/How-to-End-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-by-March-2022
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35454
dc.language
English
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9632
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
CORONAVIRUS
dc.subject
COVID-19
dc.subject
COVID-19 VACCINATION
dc.subject
SUPPLY CHAIN
dc.subject
VACCINE SUPPLY
dc.subject
VACCINE PROCUREMENT
dc.subject
VACCINE FINANCE
dc.subject
PANDEMIC
dc.title
How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022
en
dc.type
Working Paper
en
okr.date.disclosure
2021-04-15
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/181611618494084337/How-to-End-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-by-March-2022
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.guid
181611618494084337
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/1813-9450-9632
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
090224b0884d5dee_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
33000859
okr.identifier.report
WPS9632
okr.imported
true
en
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/181611618494084337/pdf/How-to-End-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-by-March-2022.pdf
en
okr.statistics.combined
2870
okr.statistics.dr
181611618494084337
okr.topic
Health, Nutrition and Population :: Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topic
Health, Nutrition and Population :: Health Economics & Finance
okr.topic
Health, Nutrition and Population :: Immunizations
okr.topic
Health, Nutrition and Population :: Public Health Promotion
okr.unit
Development Research Group, Development Economics

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