Publication: Five Ways that COVID-19 Diagnostics Can Save Lives: Prioritizing Uses of Tests to Maximize Cost-Effectiveness
Date
2021-02-23
ISSN
Published
2021-02-23
Author(s)
Reed, Tristan
Waites, William
Manheim, David
Vallini, Chiara
Hallett, Timothy B.
Abstract
Supplies of diagnostic tests for
SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 (coronavirus),
are still limited in many countries, and there is
uncertainty about how to allocate the scarce supply across
alternative types of testing (use cases). This Research
& Policy Brief quantifies the cost-effectiveness of five
alternative diagnostic use cases in terms of tests required
per death averted. Across use cases, a single death can be
averted by administering 940 to 8,838 tests, implying a
large and positive return on investment in all use
cases-even assuming a very low value for loss of life. That
is, all five use cases pay for themselves many times over.
When prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is high, the most
cost-effective uses of SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics seem to be
clinical triage of patients, at-risk worker screening, and
population surveillance. Test-trace-isolate programs and
border screening are alsoworthwhile, although they are more
resource intensive per death averted if done
comprehensively. These latter two interventions become
relativelymore cost effective when prevalence is low, and
can stop the virus from entering a community completely.
While governments should seekwidespread deployment of tests
in all five use cases, prioritizing them in this way is
likely to maximize the cost-effectiveness of their use. As
morecontagious strains emerge, each use case will become
more valuable than ever.
Citation
“Reed, Tristan; Waites, William; Manheim, David; de Walque, Damien; Vallini, Chiara; Gatti, Roberta; Hallett, Timothy B.. 2021. Five Ways that COVID-19 Diagnostics Can Save Lives: Prioritizing Uses of Tests to Maximize Cost-Effectiveness. Research and Policy Brief;No. 43. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35150 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”