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Belarus Public Expenditure Review : Strengthening the Equity, Efficiency and Effectiveness of Social Expenditures in Belarus

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collection.link.9
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2109
collection.name.9
Public Expenditure Review
dc.contributor.author
World Bank
dc.date.accessioned
2020-11-30T20:02:58Z
dc.date.available
2020-11-30T20:02:58Z
dc.date.issued
2020-06
dc.date.lastModified
2021-04-23T14:02:09Z
dc.description.abstract
After more than a decade of strong growth, interrupted only by the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, Belarus’ economy has encountered major headwinds. Since 2012, growth has stalled, macroeconomic imbalances have intensified, and public finances have deteriorated. Unlike regional peers, the country was unable to take advantage of buoyant global demand, ample liquidity and strong risk appetite. This suggests that the causes for this disappointing outcome are domestic and rooted in the current economic model based on an outsized public sector and reliance on Russia for cheap energy and as main export market. The narrow export base has left the economy vulnerable to economic weakness in Russia and, indirectly, to volatility in global oil prices. These shocks have exposed major structural weaknesses, that have dragged down productivity and potential growth and increased Belarus’ vulnerability to major shocks such as the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The policy response to the external headwinds has been pro-cyclical. It has focused on avoiding major financial disruptions and resorting to increased foreign borrowing to make it through the financing pressures rather than deeper structural adjustment needed to adjust to the new realities and anchor fiscal sustainability. It has focused on exchange rate adjustment accompanied by ad-hoc fiscal retrenchment. The latter, however, although significant, has been episodic and less than optimal as it has protected consumption at the expense of investment. The scope for fiscal adjustment has been constrained by the structural rigidities of Belarus’ public finances. Looking forward, Belarus now faces a perfect storm of a global economic shock caused by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, an unprecedented drop in oil prices, and the phasing out of the energy import price discount by 2024 due to the Russian tax maneuver. All these adverse external developments come against the background of deeply rooted structural rigidities, a heavy debt redemptions schedule and a much-reduced policy space compared with previous episodes of external pressures such as in 2009 and 2015.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/919441606128364049/Belarus-Public-Expenditure-Review
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34830
dc.language
English
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
FISCAL TRENDS
dc.subject
SOCIAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subject
SAFETY NETS
dc.subject
PENSION SYSTEM
dc.subject
HEALTH FINANCE
dc.subject
EDUCATION FINANCE
dc.subject
EDUCATION SPENDING
dc.subject
EDUCATION REFORM
dc.title
Belarus Public Expenditure Review
en
dc.title.subtitle
Strengthening the Equity, Efficiency and Effectiveness of Social Expenditures in Belarus
en
dc.type
Report
en
okr.date.disclosure
2020-11-23
okr.doctype
Economic & Sector Work :: Public Expenditure Review
okr.doctype
Economic & Sector Work
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/919441606128364049/Belarus-Public-Expenditure-Review
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
090224b087ff1b43_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
32597217
okr.identifier.report
154524
okr.imported
true
en
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/919441606128364049/pdf/Belarus-Public-Expenditure-Review.pdf
en
okr.region.administrative
Europe and Central Asia
okr.region.country
Belarus
okr.topic
Education :: Education Finance
okr.topic
Health, Nutrition and Population :: Health Economics & Finance
okr.topic
Poverty Reduction :: Services & Transfers to Poor
okr.topic
Social Protections and Labor :: Safety Nets and Transfers
okr.topic
Social Protections and Labor :: Social Funds and Pensions
okr.topic
Social Protections and Labor :: Social Protections & Assistance
okr.unit
Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice

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