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Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020

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collection.link.32
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2140
collection.name.32
Global Economic Prospects
dc.contributor.author
World Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned
2020-10-14T15:31:43Z
dc.date.available
2020-10-14T15:31:43Z
dc.date.issued
2020-10-22
dc.date.lastModified
2021-05-25T10:54:41Z
dc.description.abstract
Almost all commodity prices recovered in the third quarter of 2020 following steep declines earlier in the year. Crude oil prices have doubled since April in response to supply cuts but remain much lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Metal prices recovered rapidly due to supply disruptions and a faster-than-expected pickup in China’s industrial activity. Some food prices have also risen amid production shortfalls in edible oils. Oil prices are expected to average $44/bbl in 2021, up from an estimated $41/bbl in 2020. Metal and agricultural prices are projected to see modest gains of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in 2021. A Special Focus looks at the nature of shocks on 27 commodity prices during 1970-2019. It finds that highly persistent (“permanent”) and short-lived (“transitory”) shocks have contributed almost equally to commodity price variation, although with wide heterogeneity across commodities. Permanent shocks account for most of agricultural commodity price variability while transitory shocks are more relevant in industrial commodity prices.
dc.identifier
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/815111603466310201/persistence-of-commodity-shocks
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34621
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
COMMODITY PRICES
dc.subject
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subject
ENERGY
dc.subject
AGRICULTURE
dc.subject
METALS
dc.subject
PRECIOUS METALS
dc.subject
MINERALS
dc.subject
PRICE SERIES
dc.subject
PRICE FORECASTS
dc.subject
PRICE INDICES
dc.subject
OIL PRICES
dc.subject
FOOD PRICES
dc.subject
CORONAVIRUS
dc.subject
COVID-19
dc.subject
PANDEMIC IMPACT
dc.subject
OPEC
dc.subject
ECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.title
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020
en
dc.type
Serial
en
okr.date.disclosure
2020-10-22
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/34621
okr.identifier.report
153839
okr.language.supported
en
okr.topic
Agriculture :: Food Markets
okr.topic
Energy :: Energy Markets
okr.topic
Energy :: Oil & Gas
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Commodities
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Forecasting
okr.unit
Prospects Group

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