Publication: Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2020: Myanmar in the Time of COVID-19
Date
2020-06-26
ISSN
Published
2020-06-26
Author(s)
World Bank
Abstract
The Covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has
interrupted Myanmar’s economic expansion, and while Myanmar
is expected to narrowly escape a recession, helped by a
strong start to the fiscal year, policy responses, and the
limited disease outbreak, the growth recovery is at great
risk. Myanmar’s GDP growth is estimated to drop from 6.8
percent in FY2018/19 to 0.5 percent in FY2019/20. Following
strong activity in the first five months of the year, the
pandemic and associated containment measures are undermining
aggregate demand, disrupting value chains, and reducing the
labor supply. The crisis has had an especially negative
effect on wholesale and retail trade, tourism-related
services, manufacturing, and construction, though weakening
consumer demand is also projected to ease inflationary
pressures in FY2019/20. Under the baseline scenario,
Myanmar’s GDP growth rate is projected to rise to 7.2
percent in the medium term, assuming that the domestic
spread of the virus is brought under control, the impacts of
the government’s small but targeted Covid-19 Economic Relief
Plan (CERP) materialize, and the global economy recovers.
The anticipated recovery will be supported by rising
investment in infrastructure and services, rebounding
exports, and increased private consumption. However, risks
to this year’s growth estimate and the outlook are tilted
heavily to the downside, as the unpredictable evolution of
the pandemic could delay the resumption of economic
activity. In all scenarios, severe damage to the operation
of firms and the welfare of households is expected to pose
serious risks to Myanmar’s remarkable progress on poverty reduction.
Citation
“World Bank. 2020. Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2020; Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2020 : Myanmar in the Time of COVID-19. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34049 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”