Publication: COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries
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Date
2020-07
ISSN
Published
2020-07
Author(s)
Demombynes, Gabriel
Abstract
A greater share of reported COVID-19
deaths occur at younger ages in low- and middle-income
countries (LMICs) compared to high-income countries (HICs).
Based on data from 26 countries, people age 70 and older
constitute 37 percent of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in
LMICs on average, versus 87 percent in HICs. Only part of
this difference is accounted for by differences in
population age structure. In this paper, COVID-19 mortality
rates are calculated for each age group by dividing the
number of COVID-19 deaths by the underlying population. The
resulting age-mortality curves are flatter in countries with
lower incomes. In HICs, the COVID-19 mortality rate for
those ages 70-79 is 12.6 times the rate for those ages
50-59. In LMICs, that ratio is just 3.5. With each year of
age, the age-specific mortality rate increases by an average
of 12.6 percent in HICs versus 7.1 percent in LMICs. This
pattern holds overall and separately for men's and
women's mortality rates. It reflects some combination
of variation across countries in age patterns of infection
rates, fatality rates among those infected, and
under-attribution of deaths to COVID-19. The findings
highlight that experiences with COVID-19 in wealthy
countries may not be generalizable to developing countries.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Demombynes, Gabriel. 2020. COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9313. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34028 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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