Working Paper

Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes : A Set of Global Estimates

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collection.link.5
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9
collection.name.5
Policy Research Working Papers
dc.contributor.author
Azevedo, Joao Pedro
dc.contributor.author
Hasan, Amer
dc.contributor.author
Goldemberg, Diana
dc.contributor.author
Iqbal, Syedah Aroob
dc.contributor.author
Geven, Koen
dc.date.accessioned
2020-06-18T15:44:36Z
dc.date.available
2020-06-18T15:44:36Z
dc.date.issued
2020-06
dc.date.lastModified
2020-06-19T05:10:47Z
dc.description.abstract
School closures due to COVID-19 have left more than a billion students out of school. This paper presents the results of simulations considering three, five and seven months of school closure and different levels of mitigation effectiveness resulting in optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic global scenarios. Using data on 157 countries, the analysis finds that the global level of schooling and learning will fall. COVID-19 could result in a loss of between 0.3 and 0.9 years of schooling adjusted for quality, bringing down the effective years of basic schooling that students achieve during their lifetime from 7.9 years to between 7.0 and 7.6 years. Close to 7 million students from primary up to secondary education could drop out due to the income shock of the pandemic alone. Students from the current cohort could, on average, face a reduction of $355, $872, or $1,408 in yearly earnings. In present value terms, this amounts to between $6,472 and $25,680 dollars in lost earnings over a typical student's lifetime. Exclusion and inequality will likely be exacerbated if already marginalized and vulnerable groups, like girls, ethnic minorities, and persons with disabilities, are more adversely affected by the school closures. Globally, a school shutdown of 5 months could generate learning losses that have a present value of $10 trillion. By this measure, the world could stand to lose as much as 16 percent of the investments that governments make in the basic education of this cohort of students. The world could thus face a substantial setback in achieving the goal of halving the percentage of learning poor and be unable to meet the goal by 2030 unless drastic remedial action is taken.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/329961592483383689/Simulating-the-Potential-Impacts-of-COVID-19-School-Closures-on-Schooling-and-Learning-Outcomes-A-Set-of-Global-Estimates
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33945
dc.language
English
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9284
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
CORONAVIRUS
dc.subject
COVID-19
dc.subject
PANDEMIC IMPACT
dc.subject
SCHOOL CLOSURE
dc.subject
LEARNING LOSS
dc.subject
LEARNING OUTCOMES
dc.subject
EDUCATION
dc.subject
DROPOUT RATE
dc.title
Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes
en
dc.title.subtitle
A Set of Global Estimates
en
dc.type
Working Paper
en
okr.date.disclosure
2020-06-18
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/329961592483383689/Simulating-the-Potential-Impacts-of-COVID-19-School-Closures-on-Schooling-and-Learning-Outcomes-A-Set-of-Global-Estimates
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/1813-9450-9284
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
090224b087a8366d_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
32145839
okr.identifier.report
WPS9284
okr.imported
true
en
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/329961592483383689/pdf/Simulating-the-Potential-Impacts-of-COVID-19-School-Closures-on-Schooling-and-Learning-Outcomes-A-Set-of-Global-Estimates.pdf
en
okr.topic
Education :: Early Childhood Development
okr.topic
Education :: Economics of Education
okr.topic
Education :: Education For All
okr.topic
Education :: Primary Education
okr.topic
Health, Nutrition and Population :: Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topic
Health, Nutrition and Population :: Health and Poverty
okr.topic
Health, Nutrition and Population :: Public Health Promotion
okr.topic
Education :: Secondary Education
okr.unit
Education Global Practice

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