Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19

Sampi, James; Jooste, Charl

doi:10.1596/1813-9450-9247

collection.link.5	https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9
collection.name.5	Policy Research Working Papers
dc.contributor.author	Sampi, James
dc.contributor.author	Jooste, Charl
dc.date.accessioned	2020-05-21T18:55:16Z
dc.date.available	2020-05-21T18:55:16Z
dc.date.issued	2020-05
dc.date.lastModified	2022-05-29T00:10:19Z
dc.description.abstract	This paper proposes a leading indicator, the "Google Mobility Index," for nowcasting monthly industrial production growth rates in selected economies in Latin America and the Caribbean. The index is constructed using the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report database via a Kalman filter. The Google database is publicly available starting from February 15, 2020. The paper uses a backcasting methodology to increase the historical number of observations and then augments a lag of one week in the mobility data with other high-frequency data (air quality) over January 1, 2019 to April 30, 2020. Finally, mixed data sampling regression is implemented for nowcasting industrial production growth rates. The Google Mobility Index is a good predictor of industrial production. The results suggest a significant decline in output of between 5 and 7 percent for March and April, respectively, while indicating a trough in output in mid-April.	en
dc.identifier	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/619261589478136374/Nowcasting-Economic-Activity-in-Times-of-COVID-19-An-Approximation-from-the-Google-Community-Mobility-Report
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33794
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9247
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject	GOOGLE MOBILITY INDEX
dc.subject	CORONAVIRUS
dc.subject	INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
dc.subject	PRODUCTION GROWTH
dc.subject	AIR QUALITY MONITORING
dc.title	Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19	en
dc.title.subtitle	An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report	en
dc.type	Working Paper	en
okr.crossref.title	Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19: An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report
okr.date.disclosure	2020-05-14
okr.doctype	Publications & Research
okr.doctype	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/619261589478136374/Nowcasting-Economic-Activity-in-Times-of-COVID-19-An-Approximation-from-the-Google-Community-Mobility-Report
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent	yes
okr.identifier.doi	10.1596/1813-9450-9247
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum	090224b08792829f_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum	32036628
okr.identifier.report	WPS9247
okr.imported	true	en
okr.language.supported	en
okr.pdfurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/619261589478136374/pdf/Nowcasting-Economic-Activity-in-Times-of-COVID-19-An-Approximation-from-the-Google-Community-Mobility-Report.pdf	en
okr.region.administrative	Latin America & Caribbean
okr.region.geographical	Caribbean
okr.region.geographical	Latin America
okr.statistics.combined	6902
okr.statistics.dr	619261589478136374
okr.topic	Industry :: Industrial Economics
okr.topic	Information and Communication Technologies :: Information Technology
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Forecasting
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Growth
okr.unit	Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice

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Policy Research Working Papers

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Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19 : An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report

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