Working Paper

Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19 : An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report

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collection.link.5
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9
collection.name.5
Policy Research Working Papers
dc.contributor.author
Sampi, James
dc.contributor.author
Jooste, Charl
dc.date.accessioned
2020-05-21T18:55:16Z
dc.date.available
2020-05-21T18:55:16Z
dc.date.issued
2020-05
dc.date.lastModified
2020-05-22T05:11:05Z
dc.description.abstract
This paper proposes a leading indicator, the "Google Mobility Index," for nowcasting monthly industrial production growth rates in selected economies in Latin America and the Caribbean. The index is constructed using the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report database via a Kalman filter. The Google database is publicly available starting from February 15, 2020. The paper uses a backcasting methodology to increase the historical number of observations and then augments a lag of one week in the mobility data with other high-frequency data (air quality) over January 1, 2019 to April 30, 2020. Finally, mixed data sampling regression is implemented for nowcasting industrial production growth rates. The Google Mobility Index is a good predictor of industrial production. The results suggest a significant decline in output of between 5 and 7 percent for March and April, respectively, while indicating a trough in output in mid-April.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/619261589478136374/Nowcasting-Economic-Activity-in-Times-of-COVID-19-An-Approximation-from-the-Google-Community-Mobility-Report
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33794
dc.language
English
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9247
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
GOOGLE MOBILITY INDEX
dc.subject
CORONAVIRUS
dc.subject
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
dc.subject
PRODUCTION GROWTH
dc.subject
AIR QUALITY MONITORING
dc.title
Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19
en
dc.title.subtitle
An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report
en
dc.type
Working Paper
en
okr.date.disclosure
2020-05-14
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/619261589478136374/Nowcasting-Economic-Activity-in-Times-of-COVID-19-An-Approximation-from-the-Google-Community-Mobility-Report
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/1813-9450-9247
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
090224b08792829f_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
32036628
okr.identifier.report
WPS9247
okr.imported
true
en
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/619261589478136374/pdf/Nowcasting-Economic-Activity-in-Times-of-COVID-19-An-Approximation-from-the-Google-Community-Mobility-Report.pdf
en
okr.region.administrative
Latin America & Caribbean
okr.region.geographical
Caribbean
okr.region.geographical
Latin America
okr.topic
Industry :: Industrial Economics
okr.topic
Information and Communication Technologies :: Information Technology
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Forecasting
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Growth
okr.unit
Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice

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