Serial

East Asia Update, October 2003 : From Cyclical Recovery to Long Run Growth

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collection.link.234
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/14469
collection.name.234
World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update
dc.contributor.author
World Bank
dc.date.accessioned
2020-03-31T20:48:59Z
dc.date.available
2020-03-31T20:48:59Z
dc.date.issued
2003-10
dc.date.lastModified
2021-04-23T14:05:20Z
dc.description.abstract
The region had already begun a cyclical recovery in 2002, but this was partially side-tracked by SARS - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - and other shocks in early 2003. East Asian growth fell to only 3 percent in the second quarter of 2003. On balance, though, the impact of SARS was less than first feared, and growth projections for 2003 remain unchanged, compared with six months ago. Far from too little growth, China is in the midst of a powerful boom that has policy makers looking for ways to cool the pace of expansion in some sectors. On the other hand, export growth in most East Asian countries, slowed in the summer, and in some has yet to revive. These conflicting signals obscure somehow the near term outlook, but, on balance, prospects for East Asia are getting brighter. If the momentum of reform can be maintained, the region should be well placed to convert cyclical recovery into more sustained, long run growth. There are four sets of reasons for optimism: the global economy is improving, continued strong growth in China is propelling a vast expansion in its imports from the rest of East Asia, post-financial crisis " fire-fighting " seems to be behind, with domestic conditions in the region improving, and, the region is becoming more comfortable with representative forms of governance. However, two dangers deserve special attention: international trade is the life blood of East Asia, but the setback at the Cancun trade talks, might allow protectionist interests to go on the offensive, causing long term damage to the world trading system; and, within East Asia progress on institutional, and governance reforms has been slow, evidently hurting its competitive position in the world. Several priority policies are suggested, namely prudent macroeconomics, continued emphasis on strengthening financial sector supervision and regulation, corporate governance, and the supporting legal and judicial framework for the financial, and corporate sectors, as well as fostering the development of more diversified capital markets, to better handle different kinds of risks. The report also looks at the prospects for economic growth in the region, its poverty incidence, and at a more supportive international environment, pointing at improved confidence, demand, and activity, underpinned by supportive monetary, and fiscal policies adopted by many countries. Domestic trends and policy challenges convey gradual improvements in the financial sector, more active capital market development, improved corporate governance, and political transitions in several countries in the region.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/711751468032401775/From-cyclical-recovery-to-long-run-growth-regional-overview
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33503
dc.language
English
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject
BUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subject
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
dc.subject
SERVICES TRADE
dc.subject
SARS EPIDEMIC
dc.subject
HEALTH POLICY
dc.subject
REGIONAL INTEGRATION
dc.subject
TRADE POLICY
dc.subject
CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subject
FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORM
dc.subject
CORPORATE PERFORMANCE
dc.subject
PUBLIC GOVERNANCE
dc.subject
ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subject
FISCAL TRENDS
dc.title
East Asia Update, October 2003
en
dc.title.subtitle
From Cyclical Recovery to Long Run Growth
en
dc.type
Serial
en
okr.date.disclosure
2003-11-26
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Working Paper
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/711751468032401775/From-cyclical-recovery-to-long-run-growth-regional-overview
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
000012009_20031126120725
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
2804852
okr.identifier.report
27343
okr.imported
true
en
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/711751468032401775/pdf/27011rev.pdf
en
okr.region.administrative
East Asia and Pacific
okr.region.geographical
East Asia
okr.region.geographical
Oceania
okr.topic
Health, Nutrition and Population :: Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topic
Health, Nutrition and Population :: Public Health Promotion
okr.topic
International Economics and Trade :: Trade and Regional Integration
okr.topic
International Economics and Trade :: Trade and Services
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Growth
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.topic
Poverty Reduction :: Employment and Shared Growth
okr.unit
PREM Sector Department (EASPR)

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