Journal Article

Predicting Entrepreneurial Success is Hard : Evidence from a Business Plan Competition in Nigeria

Show simple item record

collection.link.125
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4401
collection.name.125
C. Journal articles published externally
dc.contributor.author
McKenzie, David
dc.contributor.author
Sansone, Dario
dc.date.accessioned
2019-08-05T14:40:53Z
dc.date.available
2019-08-05T14:40:53Z
dc.date.issued
2019-11
dc.date.lastModified
2021-05-25T10:54:42Z
dc.description.abstract
We compare the absolute and relative performance of three approaches to predicting outcomes for entrants in a business plan competition in Nigeria: Business plan scores from judges, simple ad hoc prediction models used by researchers, and machine learning approaches. We find that i) business plan scores from judges are uncorrelated with business survival, employment, sales, or profits three years later; ii) a few key characteristics of entrepreneurs such as gender, age, ability, and business sector do have some predictive power for future outcomes; iii) modern machine learning methods do not offer noticeable improvements; iv) the overall predictive power of all approaches is very low, highlighting the fundamental difficulty of picking competition winners.
en
dc.identifier.citation
Journal of Development Economics
dc.identifier.issn
0304-3878
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32160
dc.publisher
Elsevier
dc.rights
CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo
dc.subject
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
dc.subject
BUSINESS PRACTICE
dc.subject
MACHINE LEARNING
dc.subject
BUSINESS PLAN
dc.subject
BUSINESS SURVIVAL
dc.subject
COMPETITIVENESS
dc.title
Predicting Entrepreneurial Success is Hard
en
dc.title.subtitle
Evidence from a Business Plan Competition in Nigeria
en
dc.type
Journal Article
en
okr.associatedcontent
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387818305601 Journal website (version of record)
en
okr.date.disclosure
2022-07-24
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Journal Article
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.externalcontent
External Content
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.07.002
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/32160
okr.identifier.report
140221
okr.journal.nbpages
102369
okr.language.supported
en
okr.peerreview
Academic Peer Review
okr.region.administrative
Africa
okr.region.country
Nigeria
okr.topic
Private Sector Development :: Business Development Services
okr.topic
Private Sector Development :: Business in Development
okr.topic
Private Sector Development :: Enterprise Development & Reform
okr.topic
Private Sector Development :: Microenterprises
okr.topic
Private Sector Development :: Private Sector Economics
okr.topic
Private Sector Development :: Small and Medium Size Enterprises
okr.unit
Development Research Group, Development Economics
okr.volume
141

Show simple item record



This item appears in the following Collection(s)