Publication: The Belt and Road Initiative: Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia?
Date
2019-04
ISSN
Published
2019-04
Author(s)
Bird, Julia
Lebrand, Mathilde
Venables, Anthony J.
Abstract
This paper develops a computable spatial
equilibrium model of Central Asia and uses it to analyze the
possible effects of the Belt Road Initiative on the economy
of the region. The model captures international and
subnational economic units and their connectivity to each
other and the rest of the world. Aggregate real income gains
from the Belt Road Initiative range from less than 2 percent
of regional income if adjustment mechanisms take the form of
conventional Armington and monopolistic competition, to
around 3 percent if there are localization economies of
scale and labor mobility. In the latter case, there are
sizeable geographical variations in impact, with some areas
developing clusters of economic activity with income
increases of as much as 12 percent and a doubling of local
populations, while other areas stagnate or even decline.
Citation
“Bird, Julia; Lebrand, Mathilde; Venables, Anthony J.. 2019. The Belt and Road Initiative: Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia?. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8807. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31536 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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