Publication: Global Investment Costs for Coastal Defense through the 21st Century
Date
2019-02
ISSN
Published
2019-02
Author(s)
Nicholls, Robert J.
Hinkel, Jochen
Lincke, Daniel
van der Pol, Thomas
Abstract
Sea-level rise threatens low-lying areas
around the world's coasts with increased coastal
flooding during storms. One response to this challenge is to
build or upgrade coastal flood defenses. This report
examines the potential investment costs of such an
adaptation strategy applied globally over the 21st century
for sea-level rise scenarios consistent with three
Representative Concentration Pathways and 3 Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways. For all the protection models
considered, much less than half of the world's coast is
protected. The total defense costs are significantly higher
than earlier estimates, amounting to as much as US$18.3
trillion. With cost-benefit analysis, there are large
uncertainties and empirical observations of protection
standards are limited. Hence, the estimates should be
considered as indicative, and this remains an important
topic for future research. Further, building defenses is not
a one-off capital investment. Over the 21st century, the
cost of a comprehensive protection strategy is dominated by
maintenance costs in all the cases considered in this
report. This indicates that in addition to capital
investment, the development of appropriate institutions and
governance mechanisms to deliver maintenance, as well as the
necessary funding streams, are essential for such a
protection-based adaptation strategy to be effective.
Citation
“Nicholls, Robert J.; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; van der Pol, Thomas. 2019. Global Investment Costs for Coastal Defense through the 21st Century; Global Investment Costs for Coastal Defense through the 21
st
Century. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8745. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31308?locale-attribute=es License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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