Publication: Indonesia Economic Quarterly, October 2017: Closing the Gap
Loading...
Published
2017-10
ISSN
Date
2018-04-26
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Indonesia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.0 percent yoy in Q2 2017, unchanged from Q1. Growth rates have been steady at around 5 percent since Q1 2014, lower than those recorded at the beginning of the decade. While this growth rate places Indonesia among the fastest-growing large economies in the world, the lack of an acceleration is a matter of concern, considering the favorable external environment and domestic policy reform momentum. Government consumption is expected to increase in 2018, but deficits will remain contained due to enhanced revenue performance linked to economic growth and tax reforms. It is critical to maintain reform momentum as gaps in physical and human capital, as well as institutional quality, are still significant. The government has begun to take measures, but accelerating the pace of private sector investments to close the infrastructure gap with emerging economies will require further efforts.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2017. Indonesia Economic Quarterly, October 2017: Closing the Gap. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29727 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Indonesia Economic Quarterly FY14 : Compilation of the July 2013, October 2013, December 2013 and March 2014 Indonesia Economic Quarterly Reports(Washington, DC, 2014-06)The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer term and global context. Based on these developments and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia's medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. Indonesia's fiscal and monetary policy settings will continue to play a key role in facilitating the adjustments now taking place and in minimizing associated risks. There are, however, trade-offs between the objectives of restraining inflation, supporting growth and adjusting the current account deficit to the tighter financing environment. Monetary policy faces the challenge of calibrating interest and exchange rates so as to guard against rising inflationary pressures as cost pressures rise (such as from the pass-through of the weaker currency or wage increases) while facilitating improvements in the external balances, and without unduly crimping economic growth and weakening public and private sector balance sheets. With the 2014 budget under discussion with Parliament, fiscal policy faces the challenge of slower revenue growth, and higher energy subsidy and nominal debt-financing costs, raising the importance of lifting further the quality of spending and of revenue mobilization. In response to the intensification of financial market pressures, and in conjunction with the monetary policy and currency market measures mentioned above, on August 23 the Government announced a policy package containing measures intended to improve the current account, safeguard purchasing power and facilitate growth, contain inflationary pressure, and maintain investment flows. Some of the reform measures involved retracting interventionist policies on trade and proposals for improving certainty in the business environment.Publication Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, October 2011(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-10)The economic rebound in recent quarters has been stronger than expected and the economy is showing signs of overheating. These signs are show up in rising inflation, especially of those goods and services which are in strong demand, but cannot easily be imported or whose local supply cannot readily be increased to meet the growing demand. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 20.8 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q3, following an outturn of 17.3 percent in Q2. Growth for the year as a whole will likely hit 15 percent, if not more, up from 6.4 percent in 2010, and is being pushed by infrastructure spending as Mongolia develops its vast mineral wealth. Inflation continues its upward trend. The trade deficit is close to record levels (US$ 1.4 bn in September using 12-month rolling sums) driven by a surge in mining-related equipment and fuel imports. Exports are growing strongly too, driven by large coal shipments to China. The 2012 budget continues this fiscal expansion and targets a 74 percent increase in expenditures (mostly on wages and social transfers).Publication Indonesia Economic Quarterly, October 2013 : Continuing Adjustment(World Bank, Jakarta, 2013-10)The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. Based on these developments and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia's medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. A key component of the reform process has been the devolution of responsibility for basic education services to local governments and schools, and improvements in local governance can thus play a vital role in raising the quality of basic education and ensuring children leave school with adequate skills. Indeed, the Indonesian Local Education Governance (ILEG) surveys, conducted in 2009 and 2012, suggest that the quality of local governance is important for improving district education performance, making it important to continue to address key governance constraints, and to better coordinate and integrate central government financing in local education planning.Publication Indonesia Economic Quarterly, July 2014 : Hard Choices(Washington, DC, 2014-07)The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main objectives. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer term and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia s medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. As Indonesians await the results of a presidential election on July 9, 2014 and plan for the upcoming inauguration of a new president in October, they face hard policy choices. The past decade of solid growth has contributed to considerable development progress. Indonesia now has the world's tenth largest economy in purchasing power parity-adjusted terms; however, there remains a clear risk that the recent moderation in economic growth could intensify. Against a backdrop of weakening revenue growth and rising energy subsidy spending, this would further constrain development expenditures in critical areas such as infrastructure, social protection and health. The new government will face an evolving global environment, which is expected to pick up speed later this year. The price of Indonesia's top six exports, accounting for 50 percent of total export revenues, continues to soften, falling by 8.6 percent in 2014 through June, led by coal (down 15.2 percent). The recent volatility of oil prices, due in part to the turmoil in Iraq, highlights the ongoing vulnerability of Indonesia's fiscal position to higher international oil prices. Real GDP growth in Indonesia moderated to 5.2 percent year-on-year and 4.3 percent quarter-on-quarter at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate in the first quarter of 2014. Safeguarding hard-fought poverty reduction and social protection progress in Indonesia also calls for enhancing the management of disaster risks. This edition of the IEQ examines one such disaster risk: forest and land fires.Publication Indonesia Economic Quarterly, December 2014 : Delivering Change(Washington, DC, 2014-12)The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia s economy, and places these in a longerterm and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia s economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia s medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia s evolving economy.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2025: Jobs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-07)GDP growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region remains above the global average but is projected to slow down in 2025 and even further in 2026. The sluggishness is due to a less favorable external environment—rising trade restrictions, easing but still elevated global uncertainty, and slowing global growth—as well as persistent domestic difficulties. Today, many people are in low-productivity or informal jobs, and many of the young cannot find any jobs. The class of people vulnerable to falling into poverty is now larger than the middle class in most countries. In a region that thrived because export-oriented, labor-intensive growth created more productive jobs, firms must deal with higher tariffs and workers must contend with the growing use of robots, AI and digital platforms. More productive jobs would be created by reforms to enhance economic opportunity, human capacity and their virtuous interplay.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-23)Indonesia’s economy remains resilient amid worsening global conditions. GDP grew at 4.9 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q1-2025, slightly lower than previous post-pandemic quarters. Domestic demand was impacted by reduced government consumption and lower investment. Budget efficiency measures led to a contraction in public consumption, while investment in the construction and manufacturing sectors dipped due to investors’ concerns over domestic and global policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, declining commodity prices worsened Indonesia’s terms of trade. The supply side showed notable contributions from the agriculture and services sectors. Businesses and households are adjusting to economic uncertainty, but weak consumption of middle-class households has been persistent since the pandemic. The GOI structural reform agenda could accelerate growth further. In response to rising global policy uncertainty, the GOI devised a program of deregulation including reforms to the business environment and licensing, investment liberalization, trade and logistics reforms, and digital services. These reforms complement other reforms currently in play, like those related to financial sector deepening, and accompany the demand stimulus that the GOI is targeting through its priority programs. If implemented, these reforms could gradually expand the economy’s capacity, unlock further FDI, boost investment returns, and ensure productivity gains. The report suggests that this will translate into better job creation and raise GDP growth to 5.3-5.5 percent in 2026-2027. This report identifies the necessary steps to reach the target of providing 3 million housing units each year. In short, to meet the housing target and supercharge current efforts, the government needs to act as both a housing provider and a housing facilitator: instituting housing regulation reforms, accelerating public-funded housing programs, and creating an enabling environment that attracts private investment in Indonesia. Directly, 3.8 billion dollars in annual public investments can create an estimated 2.3 million jobs and mobilize 2.8 billion dollars in private capital. Reforms can create an enabling environment for housing investments and indirectly help multiply this impact.Publication Indonesia Economic Prospects, December 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-19)Indonesia’s economy remains resilient, buoyed by strong domestic demand and a recovering service sector. The current account deficit widened, driven by moderating terms of trade and cyclical factors that intensified services and income outflows. After two years of consolidation, the fiscal policy stance loosened slightly. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia (BI) has been incrementally easing its policy stance while managing currency stability. Indonesia needs to significantly increase tax revenues to investment in human and physical capital to achieve its high-income status ambitions. The country’s public capital stock lag regional and structural peers, falling far short of advanced economies. Closing these gaps could enhance productivity growth and support the sustained 6 percent growth required to reach high-income status by 2045. However, the investment needed is substantial. A significant portion of this must be financed through increased tax revenues, as a substantial rise in debt would be risky and would violate statutory caps on deficit and debt levels. Overall, increasing tax revenues will require reforms that widen the tax base, improve tax administration, and address structural constraints to compliance. Reforms to widen the tax base could lower the registration threshold for VAT to align with middle-income country norms, which also applies to the temporary final tax for MSMEs. Meanwhile, a permanent final tax regime could be introduced for MSMEs below the threshold. Special CIT treatments, such as for construction services, publicly listed firms, and non-standard VAT exemptions, may be phased out gradually. Tax incentives need to become more strategic, time-bound, and systematically reviewed. Improving compliance requires better risk management, using high-quality third-party data and integrating fragmented government systems. Simplifying and clarifying VAT regulations can reduce disputes and administrative burdens. Lastly, addressing structural constraints involves deepening financial sector depth, which is expected to have the secondary effect of facilitating compliance through improved information and formalization.