Publication: Russian Economic Report, No. 24, March 2011: Sustaining Reforms under the Oil Windfall
Date
2011-03
ISSN
Published
2011-03
Author(s)
World Bank
Abstract
Despite the recent slowdown, the
underlying growth of the global economy remains solid. After
a 4 percent growth in 2010, Russia's real output is
expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2011, increasingly driven by
domestic demand. Russia's households have absorbed the
food price shock thanks to a combination of higher wages and
pensions, and resort to private and public safety nets. The
country emerged from the global recession with lower
unemployment and poverty than feared. But global risks and
uncertainties increased with the new oil shock. Although the
short-term impact will be positive for Russia's export
and fiscal revenues, there is no room for complacency.
Macroeconomic policy should focus on the short-term
objective of controlling inflation and medium-term fiscal
adjustment towards long-term, sustainable level of non-oil
fiscal deficit. Improving the efficiency of public
expenditure to create fiscal space for productive
infrastructure and strengthening the investment climate for
the private sector remain among key long-term challenges.
The ongoing rethinking of the government's long-term
strategy and a period of high oil revenues provide an
opportunity to focus on these long-term issues more
forcefully than during the global crisis.
Citation
“World Bank. 2011. Russian Economic Report, No. 24, March 2011 : Sustaining Reforms under the Oil Windfall. © Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/27251 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”