Report

Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, February 2012

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collection.link.85
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2193
collection.name.85
Economic Updates and Modeling
dc.contributor.author
World Bank
dc.date.accessioned
2017-06-16T15:59:27Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-16T15:59:27Z
dc.date.issued
2012-02
dc.description.abstract
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to an unprecedented 17.3 percent in 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2010 and the unemployment rate fell from 13 percent in 2010 to 9 percent in 2011. However, real wages for unskilled workers in the urban informal sector are starting to fall as the inflation rate reached 11.1 percent year-on-year in December. Sharply rising government spending is the root cause of overheating: government spending rose by 56 percent in 2011 and is budgeted to rise by a further 32 percent this year, fueled by sharply rising resource revenues. This pro-cyclical fiscal policy could result in another 'boom-and-bust' cycle Mongolia experienced before, particularly as the global economy could face a substantial slowdown in growth due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, and which could result in a sharp drop in mineral prices and subsequently government revenues There have been major legislative developments in 2011 and early 2012 aimed at strengthening policy institutions and frameworks. The Integrated Budget Law (IBL) was passed in December 2011: this organic budget law contains measures to support fiscal sustainability and the successful implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law. It also strengthens the public investment framework by requiring feasibility studies and alignment with national priorities for projects to be included in the Public Investment Program and the budget. The Social Welfare Law was passed in early January. This mandates the provision of a targeted poverty benefit replacing the existing system of universal cash transfers. To ensure macroeconomic stability and to prevent a hard landing for the economy in case of an adverse external shock, Mongolia needs to adhere strictly to prudent fiscal policies as set out in the FSL and IBL and tightening both fiscal and monetary policy to reduce inflation, take macro-prudential action to reduce systemic risks in the banking sector and maintain a flexible exchange rate that will act as the first buffer in any external shock materializes. These are uncertain times for Mongolia. The economy faces growing headwinds from the global economic environment, while the looming elections increase domestic uncertainty. Until a substantial amount of savings has accumulated in the stabilization fund, Mongolia remains strongly exposed to volatility in commodity prices.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/637771468053406763/Mongolia-quarterly-economic-update-February-2012
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27240
dc.language
English
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
Washington, DC
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
ACCOUNTING
dc.subject
ARREARS
dc.subject
ASSET CLASSIFICATION
dc.subject
BAILOUT
dc.subject
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subject
BALANCE SHEET
dc.subject
BALANCE SHEETS
dc.subject
BANK LENDING
dc.subject
BANK LOAN
dc.subject
BANK SUPERVISION
dc.subject
BANKING SECTOR
dc.subject
BANKING SYSTEM
dc.subject
BASE PRICES
dc.subject
BASIS POINTS
dc.subject
BIDS
dc.subject
BLACK MARKET
dc.subject
BONDS
dc.subject
BUDGET DEFICITS
dc.subject
BUDGETING
dc.subject
BUFFER
dc.subject
BUFFERS
dc.subject
CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS
dc.subject
CAPITAL ACCOUNT
dc.subject
CAPITAL ADEQUACY
dc.subject
CAPITAL FLIGHT
dc.subject
CAPITAL GAINS
dc.subject
CAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subject
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS
dc.subject
CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subject
CASH TRANSFER
dc.subject
CASH TRANSFERS
dc.subject
CENTRAL BANK
dc.subject
CENTRAL BANK BILLS
dc.subject
COMMERCIAL BANKS
dc.subject
COMMODITY PRICE
dc.subject
COMMODITY PRICES
dc.subject
COMPETITIVENESS
dc.subject
CONSOLIDATION
dc.subject
CONSUMER LOANS
dc.subject
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subject
CONTINGENT LIABILITIES
dc.subject
CORE INFLATION
dc.subject
CREDIBILITY
dc.subject
CREDIT GROWTH
dc.subject
CREDIT LINE
dc.subject
CREDIT LINES
dc.subject
CREDIT RISK
dc.subject
CREDIT RISKS
dc.subject
CURRENCY CRISES
dc.subject
CURRENCY CRISIS
dc.subject
CURRENCY MISMATCHES
dc.subject
CURRENCY SWAP
dc.subject
CURRENT ACCOUNT
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CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
dc.subject
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
dc.subject
DEBT CRISIS
dc.subject
DEBT SERVICE
dc.subject
DEBTS
dc.subject
DEFICITS
dc.subject
DEPOSIT
dc.subject
DEPOSIT INSURANCE
dc.subject
DEPOSITS
dc.subject
DEPRECIATION
dc.subject
DEVALUATION
dc.subject
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject
DEVELOPMENT BANK
dc.subject
DISBURSEMENT
dc.subject
DOLLAR PRICE
dc.subject
DOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subject
DOMESTIC CURRENCY
dc.subject
DOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subject
DOMESTIC GOODS
dc.subject
DOMESTIC INFLATION
dc.subject
DUTCH DISEASE
dc.subject
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject
EQUIPMENT
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBILITY
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subject
EXPENDITURE
dc.subject
EXPENDITURES
dc.subject
EXPORT EARNINGS
dc.subject
EXPORT REVENUES
dc.subject
EXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subject
EXTERNAL SHOCK
dc.subject
EXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subject
FEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subject
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
dc.subject
FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject
FINANCIAL DISTRESS
dc.subject
FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION
dc.subject
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subject
FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subject
FINANCIAL RISKS
dc.subject
FINANCIAL STABILITY
dc.subject
FISCAL BALANCE
dc.subject
FISCAL BALANCES
dc.subject
FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION
dc.subject
FISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subject
FISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subject
FISCAL POLICIES
dc.subject
FISCAL POLICY
dc.subject
FIXED EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
FIXED EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subject
FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE
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FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME
dc.subject
FOOD PRICES
dc.subject
FOREIGN BANKS
dc.subject
FOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subject
FOREIGN DEBT
dc.subject
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subject
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subject
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
dc.subject
GLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subject
GLOBAL TRADE
dc.subject
GOLD
dc.subject
GOLD PRICES
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT BUDGET
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT POLICY
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT REVENUE
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT REVENUES
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subject
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subject
GROWTH RATE
dc.subject
HIGH INFLATION
dc.subject
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
IMPLICIT GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES
dc.subject
IMPORTS
dc.subject
INCOME TAX
dc.subject
INFLATION
dc.subject
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
dc.subject
INFLATION RATE
dc.subject
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS
dc.subject
INTEREST RATE
dc.subject
INTEREST RATE SPREADS
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS
dc.subject
INVESTING
dc.subject
INVESTMENT PROJECTS
dc.subject
ISSUANCE
dc.subject
LABOR FORCE
dc.subject
LABOR MARKETS
dc.subject
LENDER
dc.subject
LENDER-OF-LAST-RESORT
dc.subject
LIQUID ASSETS
dc.subject
LIQUIDITY
dc.subject
LIQUIDITY RISKS
dc.subject
LLC
dc.subject
LOAN
dc.subject
LOAN CLASSIFICATION
dc.subject
LOAN PORTFOLIOS
dc.subject
LOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subject
LOCAL GOVERNMENT
dc.subject
LOCAL GOVERNMENTS
dc.subject
LOSS OF CONFIDENCE
dc.subject
MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
dc.subject
MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subject
MARKET PRICES
dc.subject
MARKET SHARE
dc.subject
MINERAL PRICES
dc.subject
MONETARY AUTHORITIES
dc.subject
MONETARY POLICY
dc.subject
MONEY SUPPLY
dc.subject
MORTGAGE
dc.subject
NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
NON-PERFORMING LOAN
dc.subject
NON-PERFORMING LOANS
dc.subject
NPL
dc.subject
OPEN CAPITAL ACCOUNT
dc.subject
OUTSTANDING LOANS
dc.subject
OUTTURN
dc.subject
OUTTURNS
dc.subject
PEG
dc.subject
PERSONAL INCOME
dc.subject
PORTFOLIO
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PORTFOLIO INFLOWS
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POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject
PREPAYMENT
dc.subject
PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS
dc.subject
PUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subject
PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT
dc.subject
PUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subject
PURCHASING POWER
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RATES OF RETURN
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REAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
REAL INTEREST
dc.subject
REAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subject
REAL INTEREST RATES
dc.subject
REGULATORY CONSTRAINTS
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REGULATORY FORBEARANCE
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REMITTANCES
dc.subject
RESERVE
dc.subject
RESERVE REQUIREMENT
dc.subject
RESERVES
dc.subject
RISK AVERSION
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SAFETY NET
dc.subject
SLACK
dc.subject
SLOWDOWN
dc.subject
SOCIAL INSURANCE FUND
dc.subject
SOVEREIGN DEBT
dc.subject
STOCK MARKET
dc.subject
SUBSIDIZATION
dc.subject
SWAP
dc.subject
TAX
dc.subject
TIME DEPOSITS
dc.subject
TOTAL EXPORT
dc.subject
TOTAL EXPORTS
dc.subject
TOTAL IMPORTS
dc.subject
TOTAL INVESTMENT
dc.subject
TRADE BALANCE
dc.subject
TRADE DEFICIT
dc.subject
TRADE SECTORS
dc.subject
TRADING
dc.subject
TRADING PARTNER
dc.subject
TRADING PARTNERS
dc.subject
TRANSITION PATH
dc.subject
TRANSPARENCY
dc.subject
UNCERTAINTY
dc.subject
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subject
WITHDRAWAL
dc.title
Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, February 2012
en
dc.type
Report
en
okr.date.disclosure
2012-02-23
okr.doctype
Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.doctype
Economic & Sector Work
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/637771468053406763/Mongolia-quarterly-economic-update-February-2012
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
000386194_20120226235120
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
15867491
okr.identifier.report
67132
okr.imported
true
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/637771468053406763/pdf/671320WP00PUBL0Update0February02012.pdf
en
okr.region.administrative
East Asia and Pacific
okr.region.country
Mongolia
okr.topic
Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Currencies and Exchange Rates
okr.topic
Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Debt Markets
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Forecasting
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Growth
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.unit
Poverty Reduction and Equity (PRMPR)

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