Publication: Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia: Alternative Trade Policy Options
Date
2012
ISSN
Published
2012
Author(s)
Laborde, David
Lakatos, Csilla
Nelson, Gerald
Robertson, Richard
Thomas, Marcelle
Jansen, Hans G.P.
Abstract
There is increasing evidence suggesting
that climate change will negatively impact agricultural
production in South Asia. Decreased domestic production may
make South Asian countries more dependent on imports. The
extent to which South Asia will need to increase its imports
as a result of climate change will presumably depend on the
degree to which the latter will affect domestic output. The
effects of climate change on agriculture may well differ
substantially for individual South Asian countries and
indeed for regions within a given country which can be
approximated by food production units. This calls for an
analysis of climate change effects on trade flows under
alternative trade policy regimes both for agriculture and
non-agricultural sectors. The specific objectives of the
paper include the following: analyze the extent to which
agricultural production in South Asia and elsewhere in the
world may be affected by different scenarios regarding
climate change; analyze the extent to which changes in
domestic production in South Asia resulting from climate
change will lead to increased demand for imports by South
Asian countries; analyze the effects of increased import
demand in South Asia and changing exportable surpluses
elsewhere on world market prices of major agricultural
commodities consumed in South Asia; to the extent that South
Asian governments allow transmission of changes in world
market prices to domestic prices, analyze the potential
welfare effects of changes in the latter; analyze if, and to
what extent, worldwide trade liberalization and
implementation of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) will
dampen the effects of climate change on domestic
agricultural prices in South Asia. In this context, the
report is organized as follows: chapter one gives
introduction. Chapter two describes the methodology used -
with particular attention to how different models and
modeling techniques are linked to produce an as accurate as
possible assessment based on state-of-the-art knowledge.
Chapter three provides an up-to-date analysis of trade flows
and policies, and production patterns for key food products
in South Asia to explain the context in which climate change
is taking place. Chapter four describes the climate change
scenarios and illustrates their consequences for crop yields
at a global level and for South Asia - and in particular
shows the vulnerability of the region to these changes.
Baseline design, simulations, and results are discussed in
chapter five. The final chapter six provides a short
summary, discusses the limitations of the analysis, and
derives suggestions and guidelines for future research.
Citation
“Laborde, David; Lakatos, Csilla; Nelson, Gerald; Robertson, Richard; Thomas, Marcelle; Yu, Winston; Jansen, Hans G.P.. 2012. Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia : Alternative Trade Policy Options. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/26792?show=full License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”