Taking Stock, June 2012

Abstract

The authorities' determined implementation of stabilization measures over the past year has helped to avert a macroeconomic crisis. If the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment in 2010-11 was rapid, the improvement in the situation in the past twelve months has been equally swift. Regaining macroeconomic stability has been costly, but not stabilizing the economy would have led to even bigger losses. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has decelerated from 6.8 percent in 2010 to 5.9 percent in 2011, and further to 4 percent in the first quarter of 2012 as higher prices has lowered domestic demand, affecting sectors such as construction, manufacturing and utilities. Industrial production has slowed, inventory for key industrial products has accumulated, and a number of small and medium enterprises have either closed, been liquidated or temporarily suspended their operations. While the stabilization efforts may have contributed to a cyclical slowdown, Vietnam's trend growth rate has been on a downward path for the last 5-6 years, largely on account of the slow pace of structural reforms. Inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises, banks and public investments have been a drag on the country's long-term growth potential. With gains from macroeconomic stabilization still recent and fragile, especially in an external environment that is fraught with uncertainty, the government needs to be careful not to shift to an expansionary stance prematurely.