Serial

South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2017 : Globalization Backlash

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collection.link.216
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11978
collection.name.216
South Asia Economic Focus
dc.contributor.author
World Bank
dc.date.accessioned
2017-04-13T21:15:05Z
dc.date.available
2017-04-13T21:15:05Z
dc.date.issued
2017-04
dc.description.abstract
South Asia remains the fastest growing region in the world. With a strong performance in the eastern part of the region – in particular in Bhutan, Bangladesh and India – the region defied disappointing world growth in 2016. Inflation slowed down in the second half of 2016, mainly due to lower food prices, but appears to be turning up again. Despite recent real exchange rate appreciation, current account balances are mostly in order throughout the region. After a sharp decline triggered by lower oil prices, remittance inflows are stabilizing in most countries and international reserves are mostly at comfortable levels. Progress on fiscal consolidation has been more gradual and public debt levels remain high. South Asia’s performance will maintain momentum, with the gap between its growth rate and that of East Asia slightly widening over time. Regional growth is expected to surpass 7 percent from 2018 onwards. Robust domestic demand, an uptick in exports, and steady FDI inflows underlie this positive outlook. But with financial sector risks remaining, creating financing opportunities for private investment remains a challenge. Pressures against international trade are mounting. The negotiation of mega-regional trade agreements stalled, the number of protectionist measures has increased, and existing agreements may be reconsidered. South Asia was already less integrated in global merchandise trade than other regions. In light of current pressures, a legitimate question is whether it should focus on exports as a driver of economic growth and job creation. However, the prospects for the region are better than it seems. The stalled mega-regional trade agreements, which did not include any South Asian country, were expected to reduce South Asia’s competitiveness. Simulations on the impact of hypothetical new trade barriers applied across the board suggest that the harm for the region would be limited. And in a scenario where hypothetical new trade barriers would be applied selectively, South Asia could actually benefit from trade diversion. The region also stands to gain from the observed growth recovery in advanced economies, because they are the main markets for its exports. The current globalization backlash should thus not dissuade South Asian countries from having a stronger outward orientation. But the gains for the region would be larger if its exports were more diversified and its supply response were more elastic.
en
dc.identifier.isbn
978-1-4648-1095-4
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26373
dc.language
English
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject
ECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subject
ECONOMIC RISKS
dc.subject
EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY
dc.subject
FISCAL POLICY
dc.subject
INFLATION AND PRICES
dc.subject
INVESTMENT
dc.subject
MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK
dc.subject
TRADE
dc.title
South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2017
en
dc.title.subtitle
Globalization Backlash
dc.type
Serial
okr.date.disclosure
2017-04-16
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Publication
okr.externalurl
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/04/16/south-asia-could-potentially-benefit-from-globalization-backlash
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/978-1-4648-1095-4
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
211095
okr.imported
true
okr.language.supported
en
okr.region.administrative
South Asia
okr.region.country
India
okr.topic
International Economics and Trade :: Export Competitiveness
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Forecasting
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Growth
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Investment and Investment Climate
okr.topic
International Economics and Trade :: Globalization and Financial Integration
okr.unit
SARCE

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