Publication: Forecasting Electricity Demand: An Aid for Practitioners
Date
2017
ISSN
Published
2017
Author(s)
Abstract
Accurate forecasts of electricity demand
inform investment decisions about power generation and
supporting network infrastructure. Of major interest to
energy policymakers, power utilities, and private investors
alike, forecasts are also essential for development
professionals. Inaccurate forecasts, whether they over- or
under predict demand, can have dire social and economic
consequences. Underestimating demand results in supply
shortages and forced power outages, with serious
consequences for productivity and economic growth.
Overestimating demand can lead to overinvestment in
generation capacity, possible financial distress, and,
ultimately, higher electricity prices. This Live Wire
provides practitioners with a quick reference to historical
trends for electricity demand in the developing world and to
new econometric forecasts at the country level. By providing
a succinct overview, it allows the patterns and
interrelationships of economic growth (and other relevant
drivers) to come into focus. The note also reviews
demand-forecasting methodologies and discusses their
applicability in different contexts.
Citation
“Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; de Wit, Joeri; Kochnakyan, Artur; Foster, Vivien. 2017. Forecasting Electricity Demand : An Aid for Practitioners. Live Wire;2017/73. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/26189 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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