Publication: Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2016: Towards Reintegration
Loading...
Date
2016-09
ISSN
Published
2016-09
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The economy-wide positive impact of the JCPOA since January 2016 is proving to be slower than expected. Iran’s economy moderated to an estimated annual growth rate of 0.6 percent in 2015 ahead of the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Following the removal of nuclear-related sanctions in January 2016, the growth rate is projected to average 4.5 percent in 2016–2018, up from a 0.5 percent average in 2013–2015. Thisprojected recovery which will rely on favorable external factors, is expected to be driven by (i) a significant increase in energy sector activity thanks to the removal of sanctions; (ii) increased inflows of foreigninvestment; and (iii) lower trade and financing costs that will help the non-oil sector contribute significantlyto overall growth and job creation. However, there are significant downsiderisks to Iran’s medium-term outlook. While the January 2016 lifting of the nuclear-related sanctions is expected to reveal the dynamism of the Iranian economy, a large structural reform agenda remains key in moving towards the ambitious growth target under the 6th five year development plan. The plan envisages the implementation of reforms of state-owned enterprises, the financial and banking sector, and a greater emphasis on the allocation and management of oil revenues to productive investments among the main priorities of the government during the five-year period.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2016. Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2016: Towards Reintegration. Iran Economic Monitor. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25865 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2018(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-11-28)Iranʼs GDP growth in 2017/18 eased considerably as the effect of large surge in oil revenues in the previous year dissipated. After undergoing an oil-based bounce in the economy in 2016/17, the economy registered a 3.8 percent growth in 2017/18 with the overwhelming majority of growth coming from the non-oil sectors. More than half of the growth can be attributed to services which grew by 4.4 percent. Oil, agriculture and services sectors are now back above the levels of activity they were prior to sanctions in 2012. But there was not a strong bounce back in the past two years for key sectors such as construction and trade, restaurant and hotel services following the stagnation in growth during the period of sanctions. The oil and gas sector witnessed a growth of 0.9 percent.Limited by the (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) OPEC quota for the agreed period, increasing production capacity or maintaining current production levels in the coming years would require a substantial increase in investments in the sector. However, the reintroduction of sanctions on the oil and gas sector in November 2018 by the United States (US) will mean the issue of export payments rather than investment needs will come to the fore.Publication Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2017(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-11-01)The Iran Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It examines these economic developments and policies in a longer-term and global context, and assesses their implications for the outlook for the country. Its coverage has ranged from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. This edition covers the economic growth of Iran for the year 2016. Growth performance in 2016 exceeded expectations based on the bounce back in oil production and exports. The economy registered a record growth rate of 13.4 percent according to the new GDP data published by the Central Bank of Iran. While Iran’s economy is relatively diversified for a resource-rich country, oil proceeds still play a crucial role in public finances and external accounts. Iran’s ability to increase production in 2016, despite the cuts agreed to by the rest of the OPEC members helped bring production near its pre-sanctions levels. The surge in exports led to an improvement in the current account surplus, to 3.9 percent of GDP in 2016, as growth in imports remained stagnant. Increased oil production and exports brought an increase in government revenues, however, the improvement was not enough to offset the widening expenditures; the fiscal deficit grew from 1.7 percent in 2015 to an estimated 2.2 percent in 2016. Creating fiscal space for growth will be important especially in view of the expected burden from securitization of government arrears and growing pension system liabilities. Iran managed to achieve single digit inflation in 2016, but inflationary pressures resurfaced towards the end of the year and in early 2017, as liquidity rose and the Iranian Rial continued to depreciate. Job creation remained limited. In the medium-term, the growth rates are expected to revert to an average of 4 percent, reflecting modest reintegration with the global economy in banking, trade and investment. There are significant downside risks, both domestic and external, to this moderate medium-term outlook.Publication South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 8, Fall 2015(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-09)Economic activity in the six South East European countries (SEE6) is picking up speed, and growth in the region is expected to average 1.8 percent for 2015. The highest growth rates projected are 3.4 percent for Montenegro and 3.2 percent for FYR Macedonia; the lowest is Serbia’s 0.5 percent. Although they trail the rest of the SEE6 region, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which were hit heavily by floods in mid-2014, are recovering faster than expected. As 2015 progresses, a recovery in domestic demand is stimulating economic growth throughout the region. Private investment has become the main driver of growth. Developments in the global economy have also helped, especially lower oil prices and a pick-up in demand in the European Union (EU), a major market for the region.Publication EU Regular Economic Report, Fall 2015(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-09-01)The European Union (EU) Regular Economic Report (RER), is a semiannual publication of the World Bank Group and covers economic developments, prospects, and economic policies in the European Union. The report uses four sub-groups that share broadly similar development patterns EU : Central Europe comprises Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic and Slovenia; Northern Europe comprises Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden; Southern Europe comprises Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain; Western Europe comprises Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. While the report covers the European Union, it provides additional information on European countries which had historically a stronger operational engagement with the World Bank Group, in particular, Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland and Romania. The focus note of this RER covers “Welfare States and the Protection of the Poor in the European Union”.Publication Malaysia Economic Monitor, June 2016(World Bank, Kuala Lumpur, 2016-06)The MEM is the World Bank's biannual flagship publication on Malaysia. It provides analysis of recent economic developments and the near-term outlook for Malaysia. Each publication also focuses on a special topic related to Malaysia's transformation into a high-income economy. Malaysia is at the forefront of a "new generation" of trade agreements that will shape trade and investment over the next decade. The 14th MEM focuses on how Malaysia can use trade agreements to bring new opportunities to the Malaysian economy and accelerate its transition to high income status.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2011(World Bank, 2011)The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.Publication Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2024: Better Education for Stronger Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-17)Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is likely to moderate from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent this year. This is significantly weaker than the 4.1 percent average growth in 2000-19. Growth this year is driven by expansionary fiscal policies and strong private consumption. External demand is less favorable because of weak economic expansion in major trading partners, like the European Union. Growth is likely to slow further in 2025, mostly because of the easing of expansion in the Russian Federation and Turkiye. This Europe and Central Asia Economic Update calls for a major overhaul of education systems across the region, particularly higher education, to unleash the talent needed to reinvigorate growth and boost convergence with high-income countries. Universities in the region suffer from poor management, outdated curricula, and inadequate funding and infrastructure. A mismatch between graduates' skills and the skills employers are seeking leads to wasted potential and contributes to the region's brain drain. Reversing the decline in the quality of education will require prioritizing improvements in teacher training, updated curricula, and investment in educational infrastructure. In higher education, reforms are needed to consolidate university systems, integrate them with research centers, and provide reskilling opportunities for adult workers.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Sourcebook on the Foundations of Social Protection Delivery Systems(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-07-30)The Sourcebook synthesizes real-world experiences and lessons learned of social protection delivery systems from around the world, with a particular focus on social and labor benefits and services. It takes a practical approach, seeking to address concrete “how-to” questions, including: How do countries deliver social protection benefits and services? How do they do so effectively and efficiently? How do they ensure dynamic inclusion, especially for the most vulnerable and needy? How do they promote better coordination and integration—not only among social protection programs but also programs in other parts of government? How can they meet the needs of their intended populations and provide a better client experience? The Sourcebook structures itself around eight key principles that can frame the delivery systems mindset: (1) delivery systems evolve over time, do so in a non-linear fashion, and are affected by the starting point(s); (2) additional efforts should be made to “do simple well”, and to do so from the start rather than trying to remedy by after-the-fact adding-on of features or aspects; (3) quality implementation matters, and weaknesses in the design or structure of any core system element will negatively impact delivery; (4) defining the “first mile” for people interface greatly affects the system and overall delivery, and is most improved when that “first mile” is understood as the weakest link in delivery systems); (5) delivery systems do not operate in a vacuum and thus should not be developed in silos; (6) delivery systems can contribute more broadly to government’s ability to intervene in other sectors, such as health insurance subsidies, scholarships, social energy tariffs, housing benefits, and legal services; (7) there is no single blueprint for delivery systems, but there are commonalities and those common elements constitute the core of the delivery systems framework; (8) inclusion and coordination are pervasive and perennial dual challenges, and they contribute to the objectives of effectiveness and efficiency.