Publication: Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2016: The Big Swap - Dollars for Trust
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2016-11
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2016-11-16
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The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies overthe past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy tofinancial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. As the political stalemate continues, policy-making bodies of the country are mostly inoperative. This is manifested by a presidential vacancy for two and a half years, a parliament that seldom convenes and a cabinet that hardly finds a consensus to take decisions. Amid fiscal policy paralysis, monetary policy under the proactive Banque du Liban (BdL) continues to actively manage economic and financial challenges facing the country. Economic activity in 2016 is marginally picking up, thanks to the construction and travel sectors in the context of benign security conditions. Real GDP growth is estimated to have reached 1.3 percent in 2015 and is projected to accelerate slightly to 1.8 percent, in 2016, partly on account of a moderate first half of 2016.
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“World Bank. 2016. Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2016: The Big Swap - Dollars for Trust. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25356 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-11)A new domestic political stalemate has developed while spillovers from the Syrian conflict further exacerbated. A mid-year lull in the security situation gave a temporary boost to consumer and investor sentiment. Lebanon’s current account deficit remains elevated, albeit lower than during the pre-crisis period. Lebanon’s fiscal position continues to deteriorate. Banque du Liban maintained an expansionary monetary stance to support the economy, while sustaining confidence in the Lebanese pound. Conservatism in financial regulations and private sector banking helped maintain a well-capitalized and resilient domestic banking sector, despite sluggish growth and downgrades by international rating agencies. The expanding political stalemate at home and regional spillovers pose significant downside risk to growth. The Lebanon economic monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2015(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-11)The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Lebanon.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2013(Washington, DC, 2013-04)The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The political standoff combined with an escalating Syrian conflict hampered growth in 2012, and is projected to continue doing so through the first half of 2013. Economic growth in 2012 is estimated to have decelerated to 1.4 percent due to a weak second half of 2012 following a downturn in the security situation. The major fiscal expansion that took place in 2012 is creating fiscal challenges for 2013, particularly in the context of a promised increase in public salaries. The fiscal expansion, measured by the change in the central government s primary fiscal balance, reached a staggering 4.6 percentage points of GDP in 2012. The overall fiscal deficit reached 9.4 percent of GDP in 2012. Inflationary pressures rose despite tepid economic activity. Headline inflation accelerated notably in the second half of 2012. Core inflation has also been on an upward trend, reaching 5.3 percent by end-2012. Domestically, inflationary pressures can primarily be attributed to (i) increases in disposable income in early 2012 due to the increase in the minimum wage and public sector salaries cost of living adjustment; and (ii) a cumulative output gap that remains positive following above-potential growth in 2007-2010. The conflict in Syria, a country that is closely linked, both through historical, social and economic ties to Lebanon has created a humanitarian crisis of enormous scale. 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Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitoring Note, September 2012(Washington, DC, 2012-09)The stalemate between domestic political forces continues to impede reforms while the ongoing Syrian conflict is imposing a security, political, and economic toll on Lebanon. The stalemate in the executive and legislative branches of government remains an impediment to reforms. Important bills, regulations and appointments are still pending in cabinet and Parliament. This deadlock could well last until the June 2013 Parliamentary elections. The Syrian crisis is fueling political divide among sectarian lines in Lebanon, leading to sporadic violence incidents across the country. These incidents have materially impacted the economy, with sectors such as tourism strongly affected. Politically, the turmoil has sparked social unrest and overshadowed the reform drive. 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