Cambodia Economic Update, October 2016

Abstract

Cambodia’s economic activity continues to expand, led by solid growth in garment exports and strong construction activity. Real growth is projected to reach 7.0 percent in 2016, in line with the resilient performance across the region. The economy is projected to sustain its high growth trajectory, expanding at 6.9 percent in both 2017 and 2018 propelled by exports and government consumption. The agriculture sector is expected to improve slightly due to better weather conditions this year and to expand gradually in the near term, thanks to concerted efforts by all stakeholders, in particular the public sector. Risks, however, include potential uncertainty related to commune and general elections in 2017 and 2018, respectively, a sharp decline in the construction and real estate sector, fallout from a rise in US interest rates, regional tensions and slower global growth. Although severe drought caused by El Niño is a challenge, the downward trend of poverty is expected to continue over the next few years, albeit driven mainly by the garment, construction, and services sectors. The agriculture sector, which was the main driver of poverty reduction in the past has recently eased.