Publication: How Many Years Have Refugees Been in Exile?
Abstract
The estimated duration of forced
displacement situations is a key parameter in defining an
adequate response to the crisis. Where the crisis is short,
humanitarian aid may suffice; when it lasts, development
interventions are required. Using data from the United
Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, this paper proposes
propose a new approach to estimate the mean and median
durations of exile, and their variations over time. The
analysis finds that people who were refugees at the end of
2015 have been in exile for an average duration of 10.3
years and a median duration of 4 years; the average duration
of exile has varied between 10 and 15 years since the late
1990s. The number of people who are in protracted situations
(over five years) has been steady at 5 million to 7 million
since the mid-1990s, and currently stands at 6.6 million.
For those people, the average duration of exile is as long
as 21.2 years. All these estimates are very sensitive to two
situations: Afghanistan, where the crisis has been ongoing
since 1979 and increases all averages, and the Syrian Arab
Republic, which is relatively recent and lowers the averages.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Devictor, Xavier; Do, Quy-Toan. 2016. How Many Years Have Refugees Been in Exile?. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7810. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25056 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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