Working Paper

Potential for Application of a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Modelling Framework to Poverty Outcomes : General Form Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Hazard Intensity in Ethiopia

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collection.link.5
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9
collection.name.5
Policy Research Working Papers
dc.contributor.author
Porter, Catherine
dc.contributor.author
White, Emily
dc.date.accessioned
2016-07-07T21:06:19Z
dc.date.available
2016-07-07T21:06:19Z
dc.date.issued
2016-06
dc.date.lastModified
2021-04-23T14:04:23Z
dc.description.abstract
This paper analyzes the potential to combine catastrophe risk modelling (CAT risk modeling) with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realized shocks and household expenditure/consumption outcomes, onto a forward-looking view of drought risk. The paper outlines the CAT risk modeling framework and the role of the vulnerability module, which describes the response of an affected exposure to a given hazard intensity. The need to explicitly account for different household characteristics that determine vulnerability within our model is considered, analogous to how a CAT risk model would differentiate damage functions for buildings by different classes of construction. Results for a regression model are presented, estimating ex-post drought impacts on consumption for heterogeneous household types (e.g. with cattle, safety-net access, illness). Next, the validity/generalizability of the derived functions are assessed, to infer applicability of the derived relationships within a CAT risk modelling framework. In particular, the analysis focuses on external validity: whether the relationships established in the dataset can be used for forecasting outside of the sample used for analysis. The model is stress-tested using statistical methods of resampling. This involves randomly splitting the data into “training” and "testing" datasets. The tests show consistency of results across the datasets. Finally, future plans are outlined with regard to developing a fuller catastrophe risk model to combine with the consumption results.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26510000/potential-application-probabilistic-catastrophe-risk-modelling-framework-poverty-outcomes-general-form-vulnerability-functions-relating-household-poverty-outcomes-hazard-intensity-ethiopia
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24634
dc.language
English
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7717
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject
POVERTY THRESHOLD
dc.subject
LIVING STANDARDS
dc.subject
RISKS
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD SIZE
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subject
POVERTY LINE
dc.subject
ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject
STORM
dc.subject
EARLY WARNING
dc.subject
FARMER
dc.subject
WIND SPEED
dc.subject
FOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subject
INCOME
dc.subject
SCHOOLING
dc.subject
POVERTY RATES
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
dc.subject
TOTAL POVERTY
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
dc.subject
NATURAL CATASTROPHES
dc.subject
DEATH
dc.subject
FOOD POLICY
dc.subject
POOR PEOPLE
dc.subject
CHILD LABOUR
dc.subject
DISASTER
dc.subject
SOLAR RADIATION
dc.subject
MEASURES
dc.subject
POVERTY ASSESSMENT
dc.subject
HURRICANES
dc.subject
REGION
dc.subject
INSURANCE COMPANY
dc.subject
POVERTY ANALYSIS
dc.subject
POVERTY INDICATOR
dc.subject
CROP YIELD
dc.subject
SAVINGS
dc.subject
CROP PRODUCTION
dc.subject
TSUNAMI
dc.subject
RURAL HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD HEAD
dc.subject
INSURANCE MARKETS
dc.subject
POVERTY GAP
dc.subject
FLOODS
dc.subject
GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS
dc.subject
VULNERABILITY‐ ASSESSMENT
dc.subject
FOOD PRICE
dc.subject
SHEEP
dc.subject
REGIONAL RESULTS
dc.subject
PUBLIC SAFETY
dc.subject
NATURAL HAZARD
dc.subject
NATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD FACTORS
dc.subject
FORECASTING
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subject
TYPHOON
dc.subject
DISASTERS
dc.subject
CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE
dc.subject
INSURERS
dc.subject
FARMERS
dc.subject
DISASTER EVENT
dc.subject
FAMINE
dc.subject
COVARIATE SHOCKS
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD HEADS
dc.subject
CLAIMS ASSESSMENT
dc.subject
INSURANCE CONTRACTS
dc.subject
UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subject
REINSURANCE
dc.subject
CROP YIELDS
dc.subject
INFANT MORTALITY
dc.subject
DROUGHTS
dc.subject
CONSUMPTION
dc.subject
HUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subject
TROPICAL CYCLONE
dc.subject
EARTHQUAKE
dc.subject
RISK ASSESSMENT
dc.subject
FLOOD DAMAGE
dc.subject
FOOD SECURITY
dc.subject
DISASTER REDUCTION
dc.subject
DISASTER RISK
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject
DROUGHT
dc.subject
ECOLOGICAL ZONES
dc.subject
NATURAL HAZARD
dc.subject
BANK
dc.subject
EXTREME EVENTS
dc.subject
INSURANCE CONTRACTS
dc.subject
FOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subject
FLOOD DAMAGE
dc.subject
SAFETY NET
dc.subject
CLAIMS ASSESSMENT
dc.subject
DAMAGE
dc.subject
IMPACT OF SHOCKS
dc.subject
IMPACT OF DISASTERS
dc.subject
SMALLHOLDER FARMERS
dc.subject
RURAL
dc.subject
FLOOD
dc.subject
CROP LOSSES
dc.subject
PRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subject
DIVERSIFICATION
dc.subject
IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS
dc.subject
INSURANCE
dc.subject
RURAL POLICY
dc.subject
SAFETY‐NET
dc.subject
REGIONS
dc.subject
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
dc.subject
HURRICANE
dc.subject
IRRIGATION
dc.subject
RISK
dc.subject
FOOD CROPS
dc.subject
POVERTY
dc.subject
DROUGHT RISK
dc.subject
VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY
dc.subject
ABSOLUTE TERMS
dc.subject
CLIMATE CONDITIONS
dc.subject
PHYSICAL DAMAGE
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subject
RISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subject
IMPACT EVENTS
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD WELFARE
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLDS WITH LIVESTOCK
dc.subject
POOR
dc.subject
WELFARE MONITORING
dc.subject
POVERTY ASSESSMENT
dc.subject
DISASTER RISK
dc.subject
WELFARE MEASURE
dc.subject
ASSET SALES
dc.subject
FOOD PRICES
dc.subject
CHILD LABOUR
dc.subject
CLIMATIC REGION
dc.subject
SAFETY
dc.subject
ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject
RISK ASSESSMENT
dc.subject
POVERTY ANALYSIS
dc.subject
ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER
dc.title
Potential for Application of a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Modelling Framework to Poverty Outcomes
en
dc.title.subtitle
General Form Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Hazard Intensity in Ethiopia
en
dc.type
Working Paper
en
okr.crossref.title
Potential for Application of a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Modelling Framework to Poverty Outcomes: General Form Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Hazard Intensity in Ethiopia
okr.date.disclosure
2016-06-21
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26510000/potential-application-probabilistic-catastrophe-risk-modelling-framework-poverty-outcomes-general-form-vulnerability-functions-relating-household-poverty-outcomes-hazard-intensity-ethiopia
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/1813-9450-7717
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
090224b0843e98e4_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
26510000
okr.identifier.report
WPS7717
okr.imported
true
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2016/06/21/090224b0843e98e4/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Potential0for00ntensity0in0Ethiopia.pdf
en
okr.region.administrative
Africa
okr.region.country
Ethiopia
okr.topic
Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Insurance & Risk Mitigation
okr.topic
Poverty Reduction :: Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.topic
Urban Development :: Hazard Risk Management
okr.topic
Environment :: Natural Disasters
okr.unit
Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program (DRFIP)

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