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MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016 : The Economic Effects of War and Peace

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collection.link.130
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/5995
collection.link.131
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/5996
collection.link.212
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11865
collection.name.130
French PDFs Available
collection.name.131
Arabic PDFs Available
collection.name.212
MENA Economic Monitor
dc.contributor.author
Devarajan, Shantayanan
en_US
dc.contributor.author
Mottaghi, Lili
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dc.date.accessioned
2016-02-01T23:00:24Z
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dc.date.available
2016-02-01T23:00:24Z
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dc.date.issued
2016-02-03
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dc.description.abstract
This report estimates economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to fall short of expectations, at 2.6 percent in 2015, below the 2.8 percent predicted in October. Being constrained by war, terrorism and to some extent cheap oil, short term growth prospects in MENA remain “cautiously pessimistic.” Not only have the civil wars caused untold damage to human and physical capital, in Yemen the number of poor people has almost doubled after the war, but they have created one of the biggest forced displacement crises since World War II. The report examines the different ways in which civil wars are affecting the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement. We also explore how economic fortunes will turn around if there is peace. A peace settlement in the war-torn Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen could lead to a swift rebound in oil output and exports, allowing them to increase fiscal space, improve current account balances and boost economic growth in the medium term with positive spillovers to the neighboring countries.
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dc.identifier.isbn
978-1-4648-0822-7
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dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23705
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dc.language.iso
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dc.publisher
Washington, DC: World Bank
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dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
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dc.rights.holder
World Bank
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dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
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dc.subject
civil war
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dc.subject
conflict
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dc.subject
development economics
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dc.subject
economic model
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dc.subject
economic policy
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dc.subject
growth
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dc.subject
investment
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dc.subject
nuclear talks
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dc.subject
oil prices
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oil-exporting countries
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dc.subject
sanctions
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dc.subject
trade
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dc.subject
volatility
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dc.subject
windfall
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dc.title
MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016
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dc.title.alternative
Bulletin trimestriel d’information économique de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord, janvier 2016 : Les effets économiques de la guerre et de la paix
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dc.title.subtitle
The Economic Effects of War and Peace
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dc.type
Serial
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okr.date.disclosure
2016-02-03
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okr.doctype
Publications & Research
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okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Publication
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okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/978-1-4648-0822-7
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okr.identifier.report
103013
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okr.region.administrative
Middle East and North Africa
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okr.region.geographical
Middle East
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okr.region.geographical
North Africa
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okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Forecasting
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okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Growth
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okr.topic
Conflict and Development :: Conflict and Fragile States
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okr.topic
Communities and Human Settlements :: Human Migrations & Resettlements
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okr.topic
International Economics and Trade :: International Migration
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okr.topic
Governance :: Democratic Government
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okr.unit
Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa (MNACE)
en_US

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