Working Paper

The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development

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collection.link.5
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9
collection.name.5
Policy Research Working Papers
dc.contributor.author
Rozenberg, Julie
dc.contributor.author
Hallegatte, Stephane
dc.date.accessioned
2015-12-18T20:01:44Z
dc.date.available
2015-12-18T20:01:44Z
dc.date.issued
2015-11
dc.date.lastModified
2021-04-23T14:04:15Z
dc.description.abstract
The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty and is labeled “prosperity;” the other scenario is pessimistic and labeled “poverty.” Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the poverty scenario).
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25257367/impacts-climate-change-poverty-2030-potential-rapid-inclusive-climate-informed-development
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23447
dc.language
English
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7483
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject
SANITATION
dc.subject
POVERTY THRESHOLD
dc.subject
INCOME ON FOOD
dc.subject
JOBS
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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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POOR PEOPLE
dc.subject
INDICATORS FOR POVERTY
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FOOD PRICE
dc.subject
RISKS
dc.subject
IMPACT OF HURRICANES
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD SIZE
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subject
UNCERTAINTIES
dc.subject
POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject
POVERTY LINE
dc.subject
IMPACT ON POVERTY
dc.subject
SUBSTITUTION
dc.subject
SECTORAL RESULTS
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ECONOMIC GROWTH
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EMISSION ABATEMENT
dc.subject
POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES
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INCOME
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POVERTY RATES
dc.subject
POVERTY ESTIMATES
dc.subject
INCOME GROWTH
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subject
CHANGES IN PRICES
dc.subject
COUNTERFACTUAL
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INCOME ON FOOD
dc.subject
EMISSIONS
dc.subject
EXTREME SCENARIOS
dc.subject
COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS
dc.subject
FOOD PRICES
dc.subject
REVENUES
dc.subject
POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS
dc.subject
DEATH
dc.subject
POVERTY DYNAMICS
dc.subject
POOR PEOPLE
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
dc.subject
EXTREME POVERTY LINE
dc.subject
MODELS
dc.subject
CLIMATE SCENARIOS
dc.subject
PRICE
dc.subject
GLOBAL POVERTY
dc.subject
CROP YIELD
dc.subject
MEASURES
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA
dc.subject
FOOD MARKETS
dc.subject
HURRICANES
dc.subject
EXTREME WEATHER
dc.subject
POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject
DEEP‐UNCERTAINTY
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES
dc.subject
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subject
CROP YIELD
dc.subject
FOOD MARKETS
dc.subject
SAVINGS
dc.subject
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
dc.subject
SCENARIOS
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PER CAPITA INCOME
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DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
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EXTREME POVERTY
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subject
CLIMATE POLICIES
dc.subject
FAT TAILS
dc.subject
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subject
INCOME GROWTH
dc.subject
EMISSIONS‐REDUCTION
dc.subject
FOOD PRICE
dc.subject
TOTAL CONSUMPTION
dc.subject
GLOBAL POVERTY
dc.subject
LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subject
TRANSFERS
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL WAGES
dc.subject
MARKETS
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subject
CYCLONES
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject
FOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subject
FARMERS
dc.subject
FAMINE
dc.subject
FOOD PRODUCTS
dc.subject
CASH TRANSFERS
dc.subject
EXTREME TEMPERATURE
dc.subject
FINANCE
dc.subject
FOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subject
IMPACT ON POVERTY
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL POLICY
dc.subject
CROP YIELDS
dc.subject
CONSUMPTION
dc.subject
ECONOMIC IMPACT
dc.subject
ECONOMIC RESILIENCE
dc.subject
POVERTY ERADICATION
dc.subject
FOOD SECURITY
dc.subject
ECONOMIC COSTS
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL WORKERS
dc.subject
POLICIES
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject
EXTREME POVERTY LINE
dc.subject
INCOME REDISTRIBUTION
dc.subject
POVERTY RATES
dc.subject
CLIMATIC CHANGE
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA
dc.subject
POLICY MAKERS
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subject
CASH TRANSFERS
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
dc.subject
EXTREME EVENTS
dc.subject
POOR COUNTRIES
dc.subject
CLIMATE
dc.subject
ECONOMIC SECTORS
dc.subject
DEMAND
dc.subject
ABATEMENT
dc.subject
NATIONAL INCOME
dc.subject
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subject
ABSOLUTE POVERTY
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
dc.subject
FOOD EXPENDITURE
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES
dc.subject
MALNUTRITION
dc.subject
RURAL
dc.subject
DEEP UNCERTAINTY
dc.subject
NUTRITION
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD BUDGET
dc.subject
ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE
dc.subject
ENERGY PRICES
dc.subject
PRICE INCREASE
dc.subject
POLICY
dc.subject
HUMAN HEALTH
dc.subject
CLIMATIC CHANGE
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL WORKERS
dc.subject
COST OF CARBON
dc.subject
DRINKING WATER
dc.subject
POVERTY ERADICATION
dc.subject
HURRICANE
dc.subject
UNCERTAIN IMPACTS
dc.subject
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
dc.subject
EXTREME POVERTY
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
dc.subject
POOR HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject
FOOD PRODUCTS
dc.subject
POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS
dc.subject
POVERTY
dc.subject
POOR FARMERS
dc.subject
FOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subject
FOOD SUPPLY
dc.subject
SUPPLY
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POLICY IMPLICATIONS
dc.subject
LABOR SUPPLY
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subject
FOOD SECURITY
dc.subject
POVERTY DYNAMICS
dc.subject
INCOME REDISTRIBUTION
dc.subject
POOR
dc.subject
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
POVERTY IMPACT
dc.subject
DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS
dc.subject
FOOD PRICES
dc.subject
DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
dc.subject
POOR FARMERS
dc.subject
POVERTY THRESHOLD
dc.subject
ECONOMIC GROWTH
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ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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PRICES
dc.subject
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subject
BENEFITS
dc.subject
INEQUALITY
dc.subject
POOR HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject
INDICATORS FOR POVERTY
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.title
The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development
en
dc.type
Working Paper
en
okr.date.disclosure
2015-11-09
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25257367/impacts-climate-change-poverty-2030-potential-rapid-inclusive-climate-informed-development
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/1813-9450-7483
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
090224b0831a2218_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
25257367
okr.identifier.report
WPS7483
okr.imported
true
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/11/09/090224b0831a2218/1_0/Rendered/PDF/The0impacts0of0informed0development.pdf
en
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Climate Change Economics
okr.topic
Poverty Reduction :: Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.unit
World Bank Group’s Climate Change Cross-Cutting Solutions Area

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