Working Paper

Modeling the Impact of Large Infrastructure Projects : A Case Study from Niger--Macroeconomic Assessment of Public Investment Options

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collection.link.213
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11866
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Other papers
dc.contributor.author
Beguy, Olivier
dc.contributor.author
Dessus, Sébastien
dc.contributor.author
Garba, Abdoulahi
dc.contributor.author
Hayman, Jason
dc.contributor.author
Herderschee, Johannes
dc.date.accessioned
2015-11-09T22:40:44Z
dc.date.available
2015-11-09T22:40:44Z
dc.date.issued
2015-11
dc.description.abstract
Evidence illustrates that investment in infrastructure is essential to accelerate inclusive growth. Indeed, a number of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have begun to devote greater resources to large-scale public investment projects. Nevertheless, while massive projects can potentially generate large benefits there are considerable risks. Cost overruns, poor implementation quality, inadequate operational and maintenance capacity, and negative social or environmental impacts can severely undercut a project’s anticipated social and economic returns. Moreover, projects, which are expensive to develop and maintain can impact on debt dynamics and in some cases macroeconomic stability. Yet, given the complex nature of such projects it is often difficult to ascertain whether it is worthwhile to proceed with a project and if so, how should it be financed and implemented. Historically, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been used to assess the prospective impacts of large public investment projects. However, such models are a complex and time-consuming process and are often too broad to precisely capture the localized impact of specific projects. This paper proposes a simple, but more user-friendly model. By inputting information on the project’s construction, operation, and anticipated returns, the user is able to assess the project’s net impact on the economy and weigh up the costs and benefits of different approaches. The model was developed in response to a request from the Nigerien authorities to assess the macroeconomic impact of Niger’s Kandaji Dam project. It found that while costs would equal more than 10 percent of 2013 GDP during 2014-48, the expansion of domestic production spurred by increased demand during the construction phase will increase GDP by 0.25 percent above the baseline projection and boost fiscal revenues by an additional 0.45 percentage points of GDP.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25247595/modeling-impact-large-infrastructure-projects-case-study-niger-macroeconomic-assessment-public-investment-options-mapio
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22920
dc.language
English
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries
MFM Global Practice discussion paper,no. 7;
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject
CONTINGENT LIABILITIES
dc.subject
MONETARY POLICY
dc.subject
DEFICIT
dc.subject
BASIS POINTS
dc.subject
FOREIGN DEBT
dc.subject
ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
dc.subject
STOCK
dc.subject
NATIONAL ECONOMY
dc.subject
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
dc.subject
INTEREST
dc.subject
RATE OF RETURN
dc.subject
PROJECTIONS
dc.subject
INVESTMENT RATE
dc.subject
DEBT STOCK
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subject
INVESTMENT POLICIES
dc.subject
INTEREST RATE
dc.subject
REAL GDP
dc.subject
EXCHANGE
dc.subject
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subject
GDP PER CAPITA
dc.subject
EXPORTS
dc.subject
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject
ELASTICITY
dc.subject
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
TOTAL DEBT
dc.subject
REVENUES
dc.subject
LOAN
dc.subject
VARIABLES
dc.subject
REPAYMENT PERIOD
dc.subject
MARKET FAILURE
dc.subject
TAX
dc.subject
PAYMENTS
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subject
INFLATION
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subject
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSES
dc.subject
INSTRUMENTS
dc.subject
BUDGET
dc.subject
CENTRAL BANK
dc.subject
DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subject
INFLUENCE
dc.subject
INVESTMENT SPENDING
dc.subject
COSTS
dc.subject
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT
dc.subject
CURRENCY
dc.subject
DOMESTIC CAPITAL
dc.subject
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
dc.subject
FINANCES
dc.subject
RECURRENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subject
OPTIONS
dc.subject
MACROECONOMIC RISKS
dc.subject
INTEREST RATES
dc.subject
MONETARY FUND
dc.subject
FAILURES
dc.subject
NET EXPORTS
dc.subject
DEBT
dc.subject
PRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subject
RETURN
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
DOMESTIC DEBT
dc.subject
LOANS
dc.subject
TAX REVENUES
dc.subject
INVENTORIES
dc.subject
DEBT SERVICE
dc.subject
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subject
BORROWING COST
dc.subject
FINANCE
dc.subject
LOAN TERMS
dc.subject
PUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subject
TAXES
dc.subject
FIXED EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
FISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subject
EXPENDITURE
dc.subject
NATURAL MONOPOLIES
dc.subject
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
dc.subject
DEBT FINANCING
dc.subject
MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY
dc.subject
CONSUMPTION
dc.subject
AGGREGATE SUPPLY
dc.subject
CAPITAL
dc.subject
DEBT-SERVICE
dc.subject
TRANSPARENCY
dc.subject
MARKET FAILURES
dc.subject
FOREIGN FINANCING
dc.subject
FUTURE
dc.subject
VALUE
dc.subject
ECONOMIC VALUE
dc.subject
COMPETITIVENESS
dc.subject
RETURNS
dc.subject
FIXED CAPITAL
dc.subject
MACROECONOMICS
dc.subject
PURCHASING POWER
dc.subject
ECONOMIC SECTORS
dc.subject
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
dc.subject
DEMAND
dc.subject
INVESTMENT PROJECTS
dc.subject
AGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subject
SHARE OF INVESTMENT
dc.subject
REPAYMENT
dc.subject
PRICE CHANGES
dc.subject
ECONOMIC FUNCTIONS
dc.subject
EXPENDITURES
dc.subject
AGRICULTURE
dc.subject
AMORTIZATION
dc.subject
REAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
MARKET
dc.subject
INTERNAL RATES OF RETURN
dc.subject
FOREIGN LOANS
dc.subject
INVESTMENT POLICY
dc.subject
DEBT RATIOS
dc.subject
PUBLIC DEBT
dc.subject
MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
dc.subject
SIDE EFFECTS
dc.subject
TAXATION
dc.subject
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES
dc.subject
TRADE
dc.subject
MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO SAVE
dc.subject
GDP
dc.subject
GOODS
dc.subject
GLOBAL TRADE
dc.subject
GROWTH RATE
dc.subject
STOCKS
dc.subject
INVESTMENT
dc.subject
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subject
RATES OF RETURN
dc.subject
SHARE
dc.subject
COLLATERAL
dc.subject
POVERTY
dc.subject
MONOPOLIES
dc.subject
SUPPLY
dc.subject
DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS
dc.subject
REVENUE
dc.subject
EXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subject
INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN
dc.subject
INVESTMENTS
dc.subject
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subject
MULTIPLIER EFFECTS
dc.subject
MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO IMPORT
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
GDP DEFLATOR
dc.subject
PUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subject
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
dc.subject
LIABILITIES
dc.subject
MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO CONSUME
dc.subject
PRICES
dc.subject
GUARANTEE
dc.subject
GROWTH PROJECTIONS
dc.subject
BENEFITS
dc.subject
DEBT RELIEF
dc.subject
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.title
Modeling the Impact of Large Infrastructure Projects
en
dc.title.subtitle
A Case Study from Niger--Macroeconomic Assessment of Public Investment Options
en
dc.type
Working Paper
en
okr.date.disclosure
2015-11-04
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Working Paper
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25247595/modeling-impact-large-infrastructure-projects-case-study-niger-macroeconomic-assessment-public-investment-options-mapio
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
090224b083193636_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
25247595
okr.identifier.report
100636
okr.imported
true
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/11/04/090224b083193636/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Modeling0the0i0ment0Options00MAPIO0.pdf
en
okr.region.administrative
Africa
okr.region.country
Niger
okr.topic
Public Sector Development
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Theory & Research
okr.topic
Infrastructure and Growth
okr.unit
Macro Fiscal Mgmt - GP (GMFDR)

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