Report

Russian Economic Report, September 2015 : Balancing Economic Adjustment and Transformation

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collection.link.85
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2193
collection.name.85
Economic Updates and Modeling
dc.contributor.author
World Bank Group
en_US
dc.date.accessioned
2015-10-01T14:09:10Z
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dc.date.available
2015-10-01T14:09:10Z
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dc.date.issued
2015-10-01
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dc.description.abstract
Russia’s recession deepened in the first half of 2015 with a severe impact on households. The economy continues to adjust to the 2014 terms-of-trade shock amid a tense geopolitical context marked by ongoing international sanctions. Oil and gas prices remained low through the first half of 2015, further underscoring Russia’s vulnerability to volatile global commodity markets. The weakening of the ruble created a price advantage for some industries, boosting a narrow range of exports and encouraging investment in a certain sectors, but this was not sufficient to generate an overall increase in non-energy exports. Investment demand continued to contract for a third consecutive year. Economic policy uncertainty arising from an unpredictable geopolitical situation and the continuation of the sanctions regime caused private investment to decline rapidly as capital costs rose and consumer demand evaporated. The record drop in consumer demand was driven by a sharp contraction in real wages, which fell by an average of 8.5 percent in the first six months of 2015, illustrating the severity of the recession. However, the deterioration of real wages was also the primary mechanism through which the labor market adjusted to lower demand, and unemployment increased only slightly from 5.3 percent in 2014 to 5.6 percent in the first half of 2015. The erosion of real income significantly increased the poverty rate and exacerbated the vulnerability of households in the lower 40 percent of the income distribution.
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dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22714
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dc.language.iso
en_US
en_US
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
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dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
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dc.rights.holder
World Bank
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dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
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dc.subject
balance of payments
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dc.subject
monetary policy
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dc.subject
public expenditure
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dc.subject
poverty trends
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dc.subject
macroeconomic outlook
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dc.subject
economic growth
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dc.subject
economic risks
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dc.subject
aging population
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dc.subject
demographics
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dc.subject
natural resource management
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dc.subject
fiscal policy
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dc.title
Russian Economic Report, September 2015
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dc.title.subtitle
Balancing Economic Adjustment and Transformation
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dc.type
Report
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okr.date.disclosure
2015-10-01
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okr.doctype
Economic & Sector Work
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okr.doctype
Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
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okr.globalpractice
Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
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okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.report
100091
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okr.region.country
Russian Federation
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okr.topic
Environment :: Natural Resources Management
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okr.topic
International Economics and Trade :: Trade Policy
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okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Forecasting
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okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Growth
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okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Fiscal & Monetary Policy
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okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Fiscal Adjustment
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okr.topic
Poverty Reduction :: Poverty Monitoring & Analysis
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okr.topic
Social Protections and Labor :: Social Funds and Pensions
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okr.topic
Social Protections and Labor :: Social Protections & Assistance
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okr.unit
Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice
en_US

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