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Russian Economic Report, September 2015 : Balancing Economic Adjustment and Transformation

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collection.link.85
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2193
collection.name.85
Economic Updates and Modeling
dc.contributor.author
World Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned
2015-10-01T14:09:10Z
dc.date.available
2015-10-01T14:09:10Z
dc.date.issued
2015-10-01
dc.description.abstract
Russia’s recession deepened in the first half of 2015 with a severe impact on households. The economy continues to adjust to the 2014 terms-of-trade shock amid a tense geopolitical context marked by ongoing international sanctions. Oil and gas prices remained low through the first half of 2015, further underscoring Russia’s vulnerability to volatile global commodity markets. The weakening of the ruble created a price advantage for some industries, boosting a narrow range of exports and encouraging investment in a certain sectors, but this was not sufficient to generate an overall increase in non-energy exports. Investment demand continued to contract for a third consecutive year. Economic policy uncertainty arising from an unpredictable geopolitical situation and the continuation of the sanctions regime caused private investment to decline rapidly as capital costs rose and consumer demand evaporated. The record drop in consumer demand was driven by a sharp contraction in real wages, which fell by an average of 8.5 percent in the first six months of 2015, illustrating the severity of the recession. However, the deterioration of real wages was also the primary mechanism through which the labor market adjusted to lower demand, and unemployment increased only slightly from 5.3 percent in 2014 to 5.6 percent in the first half of 2015. The erosion of real income significantly increased the poverty rate and exacerbated the vulnerability of households in the lower 40 percent of the income distribution.
en
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22714
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
balance of payments
dc.subject
monetary policy
dc.subject
public expenditure
dc.subject
poverty trends
dc.subject
macroeconomic outlook
dc.subject
economic growth
dc.subject
economic risks
dc.subject
aging population
dc.subject
demographics
dc.subject
natural resource management
dc.subject
fiscal policy
dc.title
Russian Economic Report, September 2015
en
dc.title.subtitle
Balancing Economic Adjustment and Transformation
en
dc.type
Report
en
okr.date.disclosure
2015-10-01
okr.doctype
Economic & Sector Work
okr.doctype
Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.globalpractice
Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.report
100091
okr.language.supported
en
okr.region.country
Russian Federation
okr.topic
Environment :: Natural Resources Management
okr.topic
International Economics and Trade :: Trade Policy
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Forecasting
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Growth
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Fiscal Adjustment
okr.topic
Poverty Reduction :: Poverty Monitoring & Analysis
okr.topic
Social Protections and Labor :: Social Funds and Pensions
okr.topic
Social Protections and Labor :: Social Protections & Assistance
okr.unit
Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice

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