Report

Russian Economic Report, April 2015 : The Dawn of a New Economic Era?

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collection.link.85
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2193
collection.name.85
Economic Updates and Modeling
dc.contributor.author
World Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned
2015-04-24T20:39:10Z
dc.date.available
2015-04-24T20:39:10Z
dc.date.issued
2015-04
dc.description.abstract
Russia's economy experienced two shocks in 2014. On top of the structural crisis that began in 2012, Russia had to deal with cyclical and idiosyncratic challenges to the economy. One of the new shocks illustrates Russia s integration into the world economy through its natural resource exports, and thus its dependence on the global commodity cycle: oil prices more than halved between July and December 2014, giving Russia a terms-of-trade shock. The ruble lost 46 percent of its value against the US dollar, which worsened already eroded business and consumer confidence. The monetary tightening in response made credit expensive, further dampening domestic demand. The other, more idiosyncratic, shock was related to the geopolitical tensions that began in March 2014 and led to economic sanctions. The tensions not only heightened perceptions that Russian investments had become riskier, they also dramatically increased the costs of external borrowing for Russian banks and firms. Spreads on Russian credit default swaps peaked in December at 578 basis points, compared to 159 a year ago. Together with the financial sanctions imposed on Russia in late July, which have restricted the access of Russia s largest state-connected banks and firms to Western international finance markets, this all but extinguished investment. The current World Bank baseline outlook, however, sees the national poverty rate increasing from 10.8 percent in 2013 to 14.2 percent in 2015 and 2016. Poverty is expected to increase because real disposable income and consumption will decline. This would be the first significant increase in poverty rates since the 1998-1999 crises. Russia weathered the 2008- 2009 crisis well as disposable incomes continued to grow slightly. Given the current limited fiscal space, additional support for the poor and vulnerable is likely to be less generous than it was during the 2008-2009 crisis. Although people at the bottom of the income distribution are the most vulnerable, there will be less opportunity for an increase in shared prosperity in 2015-2016, and there is a worrisome possibility that recent achievements might be reversed.
en
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21781
dc.language
English
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
Washington, DC
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject
ACCESS TO CAPITAL
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AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION
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ASSET POSITIONS
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BAILOUT
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BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
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BALANCE SHEETS
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BANK DEPOSITS
dc.subject
BANK LENDING
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BANKING SECTOR
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BANKING SECTOR STABILITY
dc.subject
BANKING SYSTEM
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BASIS POINTS
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BOND
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BOND INDEX
dc.subject
BOND ISSUANCE
dc.subject
BOND ISSUE
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BONDS
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BORROWING COSTS
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BUDGET DEFICIT
dc.subject
BUFFERS
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CAPITAL ACCOUNT
dc.subject
CAPITAL ADEQUACY
dc.subject
CAPITAL FLOWS
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CAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subject
CAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subject
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
dc.subject
CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subject
CAPITAL OUTFLOW
dc.subject
CAPITAL OUTFLOWS
dc.subject
CASH FLOWS
dc.subject
CDS
dc.subject
CENTRAL BANK
dc.subject
CENTRAL BANKS
dc.subject
COMMODITY PRICES
dc.subject
CONSOLIDATION
dc.subject
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
dc.subject
CONSUMER CREDIT
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CONSUMER DEMAND
dc.subject
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
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CREDIT DEFAULT
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CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP
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CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS
dc.subject
CREDITORS
dc.subject
CURRENCY
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CURRENCY ADJUSTMENT
dc.subject
CURRENCY CRISIS
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CURRENCY DEPRECIATION
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CURRENT ACCOUNT
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CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
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CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS
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CYCLICAL FACTORS
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DEBT PAYMENT
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DEBT REPAYMENT
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DEBT SECURITIES
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DEBT SERVICING
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DEBT SERVICING COSTS
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DEPOSIT
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DEPOSIT INSURANCE
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DEPOSITS
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DEPRECIATIONS
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DEVALUATION
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DEVALUATIONS
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DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
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DEVELOPING COUNTRY
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DISPOSABLE INCOME
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DISPOSABLE INCOMES
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DOMESTIC DEMAND
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subject
EMERGING ECONOMIES
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EMERGING MARKET
dc.subject
EMERGING MARKET BOND
dc.subject
EMERGING MARKETS
dc.subject
EQUITY ISSUANCE
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EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS
dc.subject
EXPENDITURES
dc.subject
EXPORTERS
dc.subject
EXTERNAL BORROWING
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EXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subject
EXTERNAL DEMAND
dc.subject
EXTERNAL FINANCE
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EXTERNAL FINANCES
dc.subject
EXTERNAL FINANCING
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EXTERNAL FUNDING
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EXTERNAL SHOCK
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EXTERNAL SHOCKS
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FEDERAL BUDGET
dc.subject
FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject
FINANCIAL FLOWS
dc.subject
FINANCIAL STABILITY
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FINANCIAL SYSTEM
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FISCAL DEFICIT
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FISCAL POLICY
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FIXED CAPITAL
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FIXED INVESTMENT
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FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE
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FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME
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FOREIGN CURRENCY
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FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS
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FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
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FOREIGN EXCHANGE
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FOREIGN INVESTMENT
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FREE FLOAT
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GEOPOLITICAL TENSION
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GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
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GLOBAL ECONOMY
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GLOBAL TRADE
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GOVERNMENT BUDGET
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GOVERNMENT POLICY
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GOVERNMENT REVENUE
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GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subject
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
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HIGH INFLATION
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HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES
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HOLDING
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IMPORT
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IMPORT DEMAND
dc.subject
IMPORTS
dc.subject
INCOME GROWTH
dc.subject
INDEBTEDNESS
dc.subject
INFLATION
dc.subject
INFLATION RATE
dc.subject
INFLATION TARGETING
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INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS
dc.subject
INFLATIONARY PRESSURE
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INSURANCE
dc.subject
INTEREST RATE
dc.subject
INTEREST RATES
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL BOND
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INTERNATIONAL BOND MARKETS
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
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INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS
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INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
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INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
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INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subject
INVENTORIES
dc.subject
INVESTING
dc.subject
INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES
dc.subject
INVESTMENT DEMAND
dc.subject
INVESTMENT FUND
dc.subject
INVESTMENT GOODS
dc.subject
INVESTMENT INCOME
dc.subject
INVESTMENT PROJECTS
dc.subject
INVESTMENT RATES
dc.subject
LABOR MARKET
dc.subject
LABOR MARKETS
dc.subject
LEVEL PLAYING FIELD
dc.subject
LIQUID ASSETS
dc.subject
LIQUIDITY
dc.subject
LOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subject
LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
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MARKET SHARE
dc.subject
MARKET VALUE
dc.subject
MONETARY FUND
dc.subject
MONETARY POLICY
dc.subject
MONEY SUPPLY
dc.subject
MORTGAGE
dc.subject
MORTGAGE LOANS
dc.subject
NATURAL RESOURCE
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NON-PERFORMING LOAN
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NONPERFORMING LOANS
dc.subject
NPL
dc.subject
OIL DEMAND
dc.subject
OIL EXPORTERS
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OIL EXPORTS
dc.subject
OIL MARKET
dc.subject
OIL PRICE
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OIL PRICES
dc.subject
OIL SUPPLY
dc.subject
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
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OVERDUE LOANS
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PENSION
dc.subject
PENSION FUND
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PENSIONS
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POLICY RESPONSES
dc.subject
PORTFOLIOS
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PRIVATE BANKS
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PRIVATE INVESTMENT
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PRIVATE INVESTORS
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PROFIT MARGINS
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PUBLIC INVESTMENT
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PURCHASING POWER
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PURCHASING POWER PARITY
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REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
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REAL WAGE GROWTH
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RECESSION
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REGULATORY FORBEARANCE
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RELATIVE PRICES
dc.subject
REMITTANCE
dc.subject
REMITTANCES
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REPO
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REPO FACILITIES
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RESERVE
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RESERVE FUND
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RESERVES
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RETURN
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RETURN ON ASSETS
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SLOWDOWN
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SOVEREIGN DEBT
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SOVEREIGN RATING
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SPARE CAPACITY
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STATE GUARANTEES
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STOCK MARKET
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STOCK MARKET PRICES
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STOCKS
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STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS
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STRUCTURAL RIGIDITIES
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SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS
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TAX
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TOTAL DEBT
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TRADE BALANCE
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TRADE DEFICIT
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TRADE GROWTH
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TRADE RESTRICTIONS
dc.subject
TRADE SHOCK
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TREASURY
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TREASURY BONDS
dc.subject
UNCERTAINTY
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subject
WORLD ECONOMY
dc.subject
WORLD TRADE
dc.title
Russian Economic Report, April 2015
en
dc.title.subtitle
The Dawn of a New Economic Era?
dc.type
Report
okr.date.disclosure
2015-04-13
okr.doctype
Economic & Sector Work
okr.doctype
Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/04/24348746/dawn-new-economic-era
okr.globalpractice
Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
000333037_20150413141814
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
24348746
okr.identifier.report
95697
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/04/12/000333037_20150413141814/Rendered/PDF/956970NWP00PUB0B0WB0RER0No0330FINAL.pdf
en
okr.region.administrative
Europe and Central Asia
okr.region.country
Russian Federation
okr.topic
Environmental Economics and Policies
okr.topic
Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Currencies and Exchange Rates
okr.topic
Economic Theory and Research
okr.topic
Private Sector Development :: Emerging Markets
okr.topic
Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Debt Markets
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.topic
Environment

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