Working Paper

Income Shocks and Conflict : Evidence from Nigeria

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collection.link.5
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9
collection.name.5
Policy Research Working Papers
dc.contributor.author
Abidoye, Babatunde
dc.contributor.author
Calì, Massimiliano
dc.date.accessioned
2015-03-31T14:57:19Z
dc.date.available
2015-03-31T14:57:19Z
dc.date.issued
2015-03
dc.description.abstract
This paper extends the micro evidence on the impact of income shocks on civil conflict using data across Nigerian states over the past decade. The paper uses an innovative empirical strategy matching household survey, oil production, and domestic and international price data to capture three separate channels linking income changes to conflict. Price increases of consumed items have a significant conflict-inducing effect consistent with the hypothesis that they reduce real incomes and thus the opportunity cost of fighting. Failure to include this consumption impact severely biases (toward zero) the conflict-reducing effect of price rises of agricultural commodities via production. In addition, oil price hikes increase conflict intensity in oil producing areas, consistent with the "rapacity" hypothesis. However, this effect disappears in the period after the agreement granting amnesty to militant groups in oil-producing areas. The paper also discusses the importance of factors mediating the impact of the shocks on conflict and a number of policy implications following the analysis. Finally, the empirical strategy is employed to unveil a strong relationship between income shocks and violence in the current Boko Haram conflict. The analysis suggests some policy implications, which may be relevant for the Nigerian context and beyond.
en
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21652
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
World Bank Group, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7213
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject
economic shocks
dc.subject
conflict
dc.subject
commodity prices
dc.title
Income Shocks and Conflict
en
dc.title.subtitle
Evidence from Nigeria
dc.type
Working Paper
en
okr.crosscuttingsolutionarea
Fragility, Conflict, and Violence
okr.date.disclosure
2015-03-11
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.globalpractice
Trade and Competitiveness
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/1813-9450-7213
okr.identifier.report
WPS7213
okr.language.supported
en
okr.region.administrative
Africa
okr.region.country
Nigeria
okr.topic
Agriculture :: Commodity Risk Management
okr.topic
Conflict and Development :: Conflict and Fragile States
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Commodities
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Consumption
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Income
okr.topic
Energy :: Oil & Gas
okr.topic
Poverty Reduction :: Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.unit
Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice Group

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