Global Economic Prospects : Financial Markets Outlook, June 2014

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collection.link.32
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2140
collection.name.32
Global Economic Prospects
dc.contributor.author
Ju Kim, Eung
dc.contributor.author
Stocker, Marc
dc.date.accessioned
2015-02-26T18:05:34Z
dc.date.available
2015-02-26T18:05:34Z
dc.date.issued
2014-06
dc.description.abstract
External financing conditions for developing countries have been remarkably favorable in recent months, reflecting expectations of a more drawn-out period of monetary policy accommodation in high-income countries and some narrowing of external vulnerabilities. Additional easing by the European Central Bank, combined with prospects of modest growth and stable inflation in the United States ( Goldilocks recovery ), helped pull down bond yields and volatility worldwide. These benign conditions currently provide support to capital inflows and activity across developing countries, but could at the same time increase the risk of greater and potentially more abrupt market adjustments ahead. Despite some reduction of current account deficits in several developing countries, many remain vulnerable to sudden shifts in investors sentiment and capital outflows. Following a brief period of market turmoil at the start of the year, global financing conditions have eased consider-ably from March to June. Bond spreads for developing countries (i.e. yield difference with 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds) have narrowed, bringing down average borrowing costs to their lowest level since the spring of 2013. Stock markets have also recovered rapidly from a significant sell-off in January/February, despite rising geopolitical tensions and evidence of disappointing activity in the first quarter of the year. As presented in the June 2014 edition of Global Economic Prospects, a more favorable global environment is reflected in upward revisions to capital inflow forecasts for developing countries, now projected to remain broad-ly stable as a percentage of GDP in 2014 and 2015, at around 5.6 percent, before declining again in 2016, to 5.1 percent. While baseline forecasts assume an orderly in-crease in long-term interest rates in high-income countries, the risk of more abrupt adjustments from current low levels has recently increased. Escalating geopolitical tensions or financial stress in some developing countries could also potentially trigger a sudden re-pricing of risk. Despite the recent narrowing of current account deficits in some developing countries, many remain vulnerable to a sharp increase in borrowing costs and/or significant currency depreciations, which could put additional strain on corporate and bank balance sheets.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/23946198/null
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21525
dc.language
English
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
World Bank Group, Washington, DC
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject
ACCOUNTING
dc.subject
ALLOCATION OF CAPITAL
dc.subject
ASSET CLASSES
dc.subject
BAILOUT
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BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subject
BALANCE SHEET
dc.subject
BANK BALANCE SHEETS
dc.subject
BANK LENDING
dc.subject
BANK POLICY
dc.subject
BANKING SECTOR
dc.subject
BASIS POINT
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BASIS POINTS
dc.subject
BENCHMARK BOND
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BOND FINANCING
dc.subject
BOND FLOWS
dc.subject
BOND ISSUANCE
dc.subject
BOND MARKET
dc.subject
BOND SPREADS
dc.subject
BORROWER
dc.subject
BORROWING COSTS
dc.subject
CAPITAL FLOW
dc.subject
CAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subject
CAPITAL INFLOW
dc.subject
CAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subject
CAPITAL MARKET
dc.subject
CAPITAL MARKET REFORMS
dc.subject
CAPITAL OUTFLOWS
dc.subject
CAPITAL RATIOS
dc.subject
CASH FLOWS
dc.subject
CDS
dc.subject
CENTRAL BANK
dc.subject
CENTRAL BANKS
dc.subject
COMMERCIAL BANKS
dc.subject
CONSUMER BASE
dc.subject
CORPORATE BOND
dc.subject
CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCES
dc.subject
CORPORATE BORROWERS
dc.subject
CORPORATE DEBT
dc.subject
COUNTRY EQUITY
dc.subject
CREDIT CONSTRAINTS
dc.subject
CREDIT DEFAULT
dc.subject
CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP
dc.subject
CREDIT GROWTH
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CREDIT RATING
dc.subject
CREDIT RATINGS
dc.subject
CREDIT RISKS
dc.subject
CREDITOR
dc.subject
CREDITWORTHINESS
dc.subject
CURRENCY
dc.subject
CURRENCY DEPRECIATION
dc.subject
CURRENCY DEPRECIATIONS
dc.subject
CURRENCY DEVALUATION
dc.subject
CURRENCY MARKETS
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CURRENCY MISMATCHES
dc.subject
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
dc.subject
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
dc.subject
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS
dc.subject
CURVE YIELD
dc.subject
DEBT FLOWS
dc.subject
DEBT INSTRUMENTS
dc.subject
DEBT LEVELS
dc.subject
DEBT OBLIGATIONS
dc.subject
DEFICIT FINANCING
dc.subject
DEFICITS
dc.subject
DEPOSIT
dc.subject
DEPOSIT RATES
dc.subject
DEPOSITS
dc.subject
DERIVATIVES
dc.subject
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject
DEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subject
DISBURSEMENT
dc.subject
DOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subject
EMERGING MARKET
dc.subject
EMERGING MARKET ASSETS
dc.subject
EMERGING MARKET BONDS
dc.subject
EQUITIES
dc.subject
EQUITY FUNDS
dc.subject
EQUITY INVESTMENT
dc.subject
EQUITY ISSUANCE
dc.subject
EQUITY MARKETS
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subject
EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS
dc.subject
EXPOSURE
dc.subject
EXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subject
EXTERNAL FINANCING
dc.subject
FAVORABLE FINANCING
dc.subject
FEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subject
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
dc.subject
FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject
FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES
dc.subject
FINANCIAL EXPOSURES
dc.subject
FINANCIAL MARKET
dc.subject
FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subject
FINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subject
FINANCIAL STABILITY
dc.subject
FINANCIAL STRESS
dc.subject
FISCAL CONSOLIDATION
dc.subject
FIXED INCOME
dc.subject
FIXED INTEREST
dc.subject
FIXED INTEREST RATES
dc.subject
FIXED RATE
dc.subject
FOREIGN BANK
dc.subject
FOREIGN CAPITAL
dc.subject
FOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subject
FOREIGN DEBT
dc.subject
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subject
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subject
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS
dc.subject
FOREIGN INVESTMENT
dc.subject
FOREIGN INVESTORS
dc.subject
FOREIGN OWNERSHIP
dc.subject
GLOBAL BOND
dc.subject
GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
dc.subject
GLOBAL EQUITY
dc.subject
GLOBAL RISK
dc.subject
GLOBAL TRADE
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT BOND
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT BOND MARKETS
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT BONDS
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT DEFICITS
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKETS
dc.subject
HOLDINGS
dc.subject
INCENTIVE STRUCTURE
dc.subject
INDEBTEDNESS
dc.subject
INFLATION
dc.subject
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
dc.subject
INFLATION RATE
dc.subject
INFLATION STARTS
dc.subject
INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING
dc.subject
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
dc.subject
INTEREST RATE
dc.subject
INTEREST RATE SHOCKS
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL BOND
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL BOND MARKETS
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT
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INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
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INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
dc.subject
INVESTMENT ASSETS
dc.subject
INVESTMENT GRADE BORROWERS
dc.subject
INVESTMENT PATTERNS
dc.subject
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
dc.subject
IPO
dc.subject
LABOR MARKET
dc.subject
LIABILITY
dc.subject
LIQUIDITY
dc.subject
LOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subject
LOCAL GOVERNMENT
dc.subject
LOCAL GOVERNMENTS
dc.subject
LONG-TERM INTEREST
dc.subject
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES
dc.subject
MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subject
MARKET ACCESS
dc.subject
MARKET CONDITIONS
dc.subject
MARKET CONTAGION
dc.subject
MARKET EXPECTATIONS
dc.subject
MARKET TRANSPARENCY
dc.subject
MATURITIES
dc.subject
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subject
MONETARY FUND
dc.subject
MONETARY POLICY
dc.subject
MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS
dc.subject
NATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subject
NET CAPITAL
dc.subject
NON-PERFORMING LOANS
dc.subject
OUTPUT
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OUTPUT GAPS
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PORTFOLIO
dc.subject
PORTFOLIO FLOWS
dc.subject
PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT
dc.subject
PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS
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PRIMARY MARKET
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PRINCIPAL PAYMENTS
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PRIVATE CAPITAL
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PRIVATE DEBT
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PRIVATE LOANS
dc.subject
PUBLIC DEBT
dc.subject
REAL INTEREST
dc.subject
REAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subject
REAL INTEREST RATES
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REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
dc.subject
REMITTANCE
dc.subject
REPAYMENT
dc.subject
REPAYMENTS
dc.subject
RESERVE
dc.subject
RESERVE BANK
dc.subject
RESERVES
dc.subject
RETURN
dc.subject
RETURNS
dc.subject
RISK AVERSION
dc.subject
RISK PROFILE
dc.subject
SECURITIES
dc.subject
SHORT-TERM DEBT
dc.subject
SOVEREIGN BOND
dc.subject
SOVEREIGN BOND MARKETS
dc.subject
SOVEREIGN BONDS
dc.subject
SOVEREIGN DEBT
dc.subject
SOVEREIGN DEBT MARKETS
dc.subject
SOVEREIGN DEFAULT
dc.subject
STOCK INDEX
dc.subject
STOCK MARKET
dc.subject
STOCK MARKET INDICES
dc.subject
STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY
dc.subject
STOCK MARKETS
dc.subject
STOCK OPTIONS
dc.subject
TOTAL DEBT
dc.subject
TRADE FINANCING
dc.subject
TRADING
dc.subject
TREASURIES
dc.subject
TREASURY
dc.subject
TREASURY BONDS
dc.subject
TREASURY YIELD
dc.subject
TREASURY YIELDS
dc.subject
YIELD CURVE
dc.title
Global Economic Prospects : Financial Markets Outlook, June 2014
en
okr.date.disclosure
2015-02-03
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Working Paper
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/23946198/null
okr.globalpractice
Finance and Markets
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
000333037_20150202221937
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
23946198
okr.identifier.report
93995
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/02/02/000333037_20150202221937/Rendered/PDF/939950WP00PUBL0rketOutlook02014June.pdf
en
okr.topic
Banks and Banking Reform
okr.topic
Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Currencies and Exchange Rates
okr.topic
Economic Theory and Research
okr.topic
Private Sector Development :: Emerging Markets
okr.topic
Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Debt Markets
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.unit
Macro & Fiscal Mgmt - GP (GMFDR)

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