Core Diagnostic Reports

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Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. Core diagnostic reports are mandated by the World Bank before lending programs are begun.

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    Dominican Republic Poverty Assessment 2023: Fast Tracking Poverty Reduction and Prosperity for All
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-08) World Bank
    In recent decades, economic growth in the Dominican Republic (DR) has been steady. However, growth has not occurred in such a way as to make the benefits widely and evenly available. In fact, although the DR economy grew faster than that of other LAC countries before the Covid-19 pandemic, its poverty rates and social outcomes remain broadly similar to them. This report seeks to explain this conundrum, as well as to expand the knowledge base to improve the effectiveness of ongoing poverty reduction policies in the DR. The Poverty Assessment draws primarily on new analytical work conducted in the DR, structured around four background notes on: (i) trends in monetary poverty and inequality, as well as the key drivers of those changes; (ii) nonmonetary poverty and its spatial dimensions; (iii) social assistance programs and their role in mitigating poverty; and (iv) climate change and its interaction with poverty. By helping to reduce the evidence gap in each of these areas, our analysis hopes to inform government policies and the national dialogue on poverty reduction. In addition, the note integrates existing analytical work and evidence produced inside and outside the Bank, including from its operations in the country.
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    Private Sector Opportunities for a Green and Resilient Reconstruction in Ukraine: Synthesis Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-02) World Bank
    In March 2023, the Second Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA2) identified $411 billion worth of investments required for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The World Bank Group’s new report “Private Sector Opportunities for a Green and Resilient Reconstruction in Ukraine”, developed in cooperation with Ukraine’s government, assesses the potential for private financing to meet these needs under both a status quo scenario and a scenario with reforms and other sectoral interventions.
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    Armenia Public Expenditure Review: Improving Spending Efficiency
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-02) World Bank
    Armenia’s fiscal performance has improved during the past two decades, supported by reforms. Revenue collection has converged with income and regional peers, overall spending levels have remained prudent, and debt levels remain sustainable. Fiscal policy has been counter-cyclical and progressive but has had a limited impact on economic growth. Spending efficiency is a key area of concern. Expenditure efficiency in areas such as infrastructure, road transport, health, and education are significantly behind the global efficiency frontier. The fiscal implications associated with the policy proposals in the 2021-2026 government program are significant. How can fiscal policy support the implementation of the government’s key policy proposals while ensuring the sustainability of public finances This is the main question for this Public Expenditure Review (PER). To answer it, this PER will (i) analyze past fiscal performance; (ii) assess the medium-term fiscal impacts of selected policy proposals that are currently being considered such as increase in pensions, changes to social assistance, increased health expenditures, and increased capital expenditure; and (iii) propose options to improve spending efficiency in select areas to provide options for the government to use the available fiscal space to effectively implement these policy proposals.
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    Understanding the (Un)met Saving Needs of Poor Urban Liberians in the Informal Sector
    (World Bank, 2023-10-30) Jain, Himanshi ; Cunningham, Wendy
    Gisela is among the large and diverse group of informal sector workers in urban Liberia who lack social protection coverage, have little interaction with formal financial institutions, and depend on informal saving groups to meet their financial needs. The financial vulnerability that this group faces not only puts their welfare at risk but also under‑mines the economy at large. Despite the potential risks, there is little systematic information on how the urban informal poor in Liberia save, their saving aspirations, and what they need to save better. This report explores the saving behavior and aspirations of urban informal households in Liberia by presenting the findings from a survey of 1000 households in Monrovia, supplemented by an assessment of Liberia’s existing informal savings institutions.
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    Democratic Republic of the Congo Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) - Pathways to Economic Diversification and Regional Trade Integration: Fostering Economic Diversification and Regional Integration for Faster Growth, Job Creation and Poverty Reduction
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-10-26) World Bank
    Economic Diversification in the DRC is hindered by a business environment and key regulatory and fiscal constraints that are not conducive to private sector-led growth. Policies aimed to address the main bottlenecks hindering sustainable and inclusive growth include: i) improving business regulation; ii) promoting access to digital, electricity, and financing; iii) addressing inefficient taxation and fiscal policy challenges; iv) encouraging fiscal decentralization; and v) attracting value chain development. The two case studies discussed in complementary reports are intended to better illustrate the opportunities and challenges described in the Country Economic Memorandum and considered important for economic diversification and job creation through structural transformation and stronger trade and regional integration. The focus is on two key potential growth-driving sectors (mining and agribusiness) that offer substantial opportunities for expansion in the context of global energy transition, food insecurity, and further regional integration. While opportunities and constraints specific to the EV battery-related mining and cassava value chain are presented (and include a climate dimension), most of the challenges and recommendations could also apply to several other products or sectors of the economy (e.g., maize or any manufactured or processed product). The purpose of the illustrative case studies is to highlight how the business environment in general is not attractive to private investment, SME expansion, or product competitiveness.
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    East Asia and the Pacific Macro Poverty Outlook: Country-by-Country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World, Annual Meetings 2023
    (Washington, DC, 2023-10-23) World Bank
    This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the East Asia and the Pacific region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and where available, other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank’s most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region.
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    Latin America and the Caribbean Macro Poverty Outlook: Country-by-Country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World, Annual Meetings 2023
    (Washington, DC, 2023-10-23) World Bank
    This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the Latin America and the Caribbean region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and where available, other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank’s most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region.
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    Lessons Learned from the First Generation of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Risk Assessments
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-10-19) Celik, Kuntay
    This report aims to guide the policy makers in World Bank client jurisdictions in continuously improving their assessments and understandings of money laundering and terrorist financing risks in their jurisdictions. To this end, the report attempts to draw lessons mainly from; Observations and experiences from more than 100 World Bank technical assistance projects that supported client jurisdictions’ National ML/TF Risk Assessments (NRAs); and An analysis of feedback on NRAs in 146 mutual evaluations conducted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and FATF-style regional.
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    South Asia Macro Poverty Outlook: Country-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World, Annual Meetings 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-10-18) World Bank
    This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the South Asia region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and where available, other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank’s most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region.
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    Sub-Saharan Africa Macro Poverty Outlook: Country-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World, Annual Meetings 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-10-18) World Bank
    This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the Sub-Saharan Africa region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and where available, other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank’s most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region.