The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short and Medium Term Estimates for West Africa

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collection.link.213
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11866
collection.name.213
Other papers
dc.contributor.author
World Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned
2014-10-09T13:23:33Z
dc.date.available
2014-10-09T13:23:33Z
dc.date.issued
2014-10-07
dc.date.lastModified
2021-04-23T14:03:55Z
dc.description.abstract
The 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus disease in West Africa has taken a devastating human toll. Although the outbreak originated in rural Guinea, it has hit hardest in Liberia and Sierra Leone, in part because it has reached urban areas in these two countries, a factor that distinguishes this outbreak from previous episodes elsewhere. As of October 3, 2014, there had been 3,431 recorded deaths out of 7,470 probable, suspected, or confirmed cases of Ebola. This report informs the response to the epidemic by presenting best-effort estimates of its macroeconomic and fiscal effects. Any such exercise is necessarily highly imprecise due to limited data and many uncertain factors, but it is still necessary in order to plan the economic assistance that must accompany the immediate humanitarian response. The goal is to help affected countries to recover and return to the robust economic growth they had experienced until the onset of this crisis. This document presents the World Bank's preliminary estimates of the economic impact of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa for 2014 (short term impact) and 2015 (medium term impact). Section 2 presents a single set of 2014 estimates for Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, based on available data on current economic activity as well as assumptions about the short-term impact. It also presents current data on the limited current impacts on other countries in the region. Section 3 presents estimates for the impact by the end of 2015 for Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone, as well as estimates for West Africa as a whole. Because the epidemic and the behavioral responses to it have more time to diverge over the course of 2015, Section 3 presents two scenarios for 2015, which vary in the optimism of their assumptions regarding the epidemic and the success of donor and government policy and efforts to control it. The take-away messages from this analysis are a low Ebola scenario that corresponds to rapid containment within the three most severely affected countries, and a high Ebola scenario corresponds to slower containment in the three countries, with some broader regional contagion. A swift policy reaction by the international community is crucial. With potential the economic costs of the Ebola epidemic being so high, very substantial containment and mitigation expenditures would be cost-effective, if they successfully avert the worst epidemiological outcomes. To mitigate the medium term economic impact of the outbreak, current efforts by many partners to strengthen the health systems and fill the fiscal gaps in the core three countries are key priorities. Finally, this report does not take into account the longer term impacts generated by mortality, failure to treat other health conditions due to aversion behavior and lack of supply capacity, school closings and dropouts, and other shocks to livelihoods. It is truly focused on the short and medium-term inputs, over the next 18 months.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/10/20270083/economic-impact-2014-ebola-epidemic-short-medium-term-estimates-west-africa
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20396
dc.language
English
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
Washington, DC
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject
ADVERSE EFFECTS
dc.subject
AGED
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subject
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subject
AGRICULTURE
dc.subject
AIR
dc.subject
AIRPORT
dc.subject
BARS
dc.subject
BEER
dc.subject
BEVERAGES
dc.subject
BORDER CROSSINGS
dc.subject
BORDER TRAFFIC
dc.subject
BOTTLED WATER
dc.subject
BOTTLENECKS
dc.subject
BREWERY
dc.subject
CANDLES
dc.subject
CAPITAL FLIGHT
dc.subject
CASSAVA
dc.subject
CENTRAL BANK
dc.subject
COCOA
dc.subject
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
dc.subject
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subject
CONSUMER PURCHASING
dc.subject
CONTAGION
dc.subject
CONTAINERS
dc.subject
DEMAND FOR FOOD
dc.subject
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subject
DIESEL
dc.subject
DIESEL FUEL
dc.subject
DIMINISHING RETURNS
dc.subject
DISEASE
dc.subject
DISEASE CONTROL
dc.subject
DISEASE OUTBREAKS
dc.subject
DISEASES
dc.subject
DOMESTIC TRANSPORT
dc.subject
DOMESTIC TRAVEL
dc.subject
EBOLA
dc.subject
EBOLA VIRUS
dc.subject
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subject
ECONOMIC FORECASTING
dc.subject
ECONOMIC IMPACT
dc.subject
ECONOMIC SECTORS
dc.subject
EDIBLE OILS
dc.subject
EMERGENCY MEASURES
dc.subject
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
dc.subject
EPIDEMIC
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subject
EXPORT GROWTH
dc.subject
EXPORTS
dc.subject
FAMILIES
dc.subject
FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS
dc.subject
FLIGHT CONNECTIONS
dc.subject
FOOD INSECURITY
dc.subject
FOOD PRICES
dc.subject
FOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subject
FOOD PRODUCTS
dc.subject
FOOD RATIONS
dc.subject
FOOD SECURITY
dc.subject
FOOD SHORTAGES
dc.subject
FOOD STAPLES
dc.subject
FOOD STOCKS
dc.subject
FOOD TRANSPORT
dc.subject
FOODS
dc.subject
FORECASTS
dc.subject
FRUIT
dc.subject
FUEL
dc.subject
FUEL PRICES
dc.subject
GDP
dc.subject
GROWTH PROJECTIONS
dc.subject
GROWTH RATE
dc.subject
HAND WASHING
dc.subject
HAZARD
dc.subject
HEALTH CARE
dc.subject
HEALTH CONDITIONS
dc.subject
HEALTH INTERVENTIONS
dc.subject
HEALTH WORKERS
dc.subject
HOSPITALS
dc.subject
HUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subject
INCOME
dc.subject
INFECTION
dc.subject
INFLATION
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL
dc.subject
IRON
dc.subject
ISOLATION
dc.subject
LEADING INDICATORS
dc.subject
LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subject
MACROECONOMICS
dc.subject
MALNUTRITION
dc.subject
MARKETING
dc.subject
MEDICINE
dc.subject
MIGRATION
dc.subject
MOBILITY
dc.subject
MORBIDITY
dc.subject
MORTALITY
dc.subject
NURSES
dc.subject
OILS & FATS
dc.subject
PALM OIL
dc.subject
PASSENGERS
dc.subject
PATIENT
dc.subject
PATIENTS
dc.subject
PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject
PLASTICS
dc.subject
PRICE INCREASES
dc.subject
PUBLIC HEALTH
dc.subject
PURCHASING POWER
dc.subject
REAL GDP
dc.subject
RESTAURANTS
dc.subject
RICE
dc.subject
ROAD
dc.subject
ROAD CONDITIONS
dc.subject
ROOMS
dc.subject
RUBBER
dc.subject
SOFT DRINKS
dc.subject
SYMPTOMS
dc.subject
TAX
dc.subject
TAX REVENUE
dc.subject
TAXIS
dc.subject
TOLL
dc.subject
TOTAL REVENUE
dc.subject
TRAFFIC
dc.subject
TRANSIT
dc.subject
TRANSIT TRADE
dc.subject
TRANSPORT
dc.subject
TRANSPORT SECTOR
dc.subject
TRANSPORTATION
dc.subject
TRAVELERS
dc.subject
TREATMENT
dc.subject
TRUE
dc.subject
VICTIMS
dc.subject
WEALTH
dc.subject
WFP
dc.subject
WHEAT
dc.subject
WORLD FOOD PROGRAM
dc.title
The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short and Medium Term Estimates for West Africa
en
okr.date.disclosure
2014-10-07
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Working Paper
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/10/20270083/economic-impact-2014-ebola-epidemic-short-medium-term-estimates-west-africa
okr.globalpractice
Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
000456286_20141007140300
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
20270083
okr.identifier.report
91219
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/10/07/000456286_20141007140300/Rendered/PDF/912190WP0see0a00070385314B00PUBLIC0.pdf
en
okr.region.administrative
Africa
okr.region.geographical
West Africa
okr.relation.associatedurl
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20218
okr.relation.associatedurl
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20599
okr.relation.associatedurl
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20592
okr.relation.associatedurl
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/21303
okr.topic
Health Monitoring and Evaluation
okr.topic
Transport Economics Policy and Planning
okr.topic
Economic Theory and Research
okr.topic
Food and Beverage Industry
okr.topic
Disease Control and Prevention
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.topic
Transport
okr.topic
Industry
okr.topic
Health, Nutrition and Population
okr.unit
Global Practice for Macroeconomics & Fiscal Management (GMFDR); the Office of the Chief Economist for the Africa Region (AFRCE); and the Development Prospects Group in the Development Economics Vice Presidency (DECPG)
okr.volume
1 of 1

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