Publication: How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries
Date
2001-01
ISSN
Published
2001-01
Author(s)
Elbadawi, Ibrahim
Sambanis, Nicholas
Abstract
Quantitative studies of civil war have
focused either on war's onset, or its termination,
producing important insights into these end points of the
process. The authors complement these studies by studying
how much war we are likely to observe in any given period.
To answer this question, they combine recent advances in the
theory of civil war initiation, and duration, and, develop
the concept of war incidence, denoting th probability of
observing an event of civil war in any given period. They
test theories of war initiation, and duration against this
new concept, using a five-year panel data set for 161
countries. Their analysis of the incidence of war
corroborates most of the results of earlier studies,
enriching those results by highlighting the significance of
socio-ppolitical variables as determinants of the risk of
civil war. Their findings: 1) Steps toward advancing
political liberalization, or economic development reduce the
risk of civil war, whatever the degree of ethno-linguistic
fractionalization in a society. 2) This effect is amplified
in polarized societies. The probability of civil war is
lower in very homogeneous societies, and (less so) in more
diverse societies. 3) In polarized societies, the risk of
civil war can be reduced by political, rather than economic
liberalization. At high levels of political freedom, ethnic
diversity - even polarization - has a minimal impact on the
risk of civil war. 4) Economic diversification that would
reduce a country's reliance on primary exports would
also reduce the risk of civil wars, especially in polarized
societies. 5) In strategies for preventing civil war,
political liberalization should be a higher priority than
economic development, but the best possible results would
combine political reform, economic diversification, and
poverty reduction.
Citation
“Elbadawi, Ibrahim; Sambanis, Nicholas. 2001. How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2533. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/19718 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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