Agreeing on Robust Decisions : New Processes for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Show simple item record

collection.link.5
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9
collection.name.5
Policy Research Working Papers
dc.contributor.author
Kalra, Nidhi
dc.contributor.author
Hallegatte, Stephane
dc.contributor.author
Lempert, Robert
dc.contributor.author
Brown, Casey
dc.contributor.author
Fozzard, Adrian
dc.contributor.author
Gill, Stuart
dc.contributor.author
Shah, Ankur
dc.date.accessioned
2014-06-25T21:59:54Z
dc.date.available
2014-06-25T21:59:54Z
dc.date.issued
2014-06
dc.date.lastModified
2017-12-14T04:50:00Z
dc.description.abstract
Investment decision making is already difficult for any diverse group of actors with different priorities and views. But the presence of deep uncertainties linked to climate change and other future conditions further challenges decision making by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. While decision makers can continue to use the decision metrics they have used in the past (such as net present value), alternative methodologies can improve decision processes, especially those that lead with analysis and end in agreement on decisions. Such "Agree-on-Decision" methods start by stress-testing options under a wide range of plausible conditions, without requiring us to agree ex ante on which conditions are more or less likely, and against a set of objectives or success metrics, without requiring us to agree ex ante on how to aggregate or weight them. As a result, these methods are easier to apply to contexts of large uncertainty or disagreement on values and objectives. This inverted process promotes consensus around better decisions and can help in managing uncertainty. Analyses performed in this way let decision makers make the decision and inform them on (1) the conditions under which an option or project is vulnerable; (2) the tradeoffs between robustness and cost, or between various objectives; and (3) the flexibility of various options to respond to changes in the future. In doing so, they put decision makers back in the driver's seat. A growing set of case studies shows that these methods can be applied in real-world contexts and do not need to be more costly or complicated than traditional approaches. Finally, while this paper focuses on climate change, a better treatment of uncertainties and disagreement would in general improve decision making and development outcomes.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19616379/agreeing-robust-decisions-new-processes-decision-making-under-deep-uncertainty
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18772
dc.language
English
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6906
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject
ABATEMENT
dc.subject
ABATEMENT COSTS
dc.subject
AFFORESTATION
dc.subject
AIRPORTS
dc.subject
APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject
ATMOSPHERE
dc.subject
ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION
dc.subject
BENEFICIARIES
dc.subject
CAR
dc.subject
CAR CRASH
dc.subject
CARBON BUDGET
dc.subject
CARBON EMISSIONS
dc.subject
CARBON PRICE
dc.subject
CARS
dc.subject
CLIMATE
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE INDICATORS
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGES
dc.subject
CLIMATE CONDITIONS
dc.subject
CLIMATE DATA
dc.subject
CLIMATE EFFECTS
dc.subject
CLIMATE EXPERTS
dc.subject
CLIMATE FACTORS
dc.subject
CLIMATE FORECASTS
dc.subject
CLIMATE INFORMATION
dc.subject
CLIMATE MODEL
dc.subject
CLIMATE MODELERS
dc.subject
CLIMATE MODELS
dc.subject
CLIMATE POLICIES
dc.subject
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
dc.subject
CLIMATE RESPONSE
dc.subject
CLIMATE RISKS
dc.subject
CLIMATE SCENARIOS
dc.subject
CLIMATE SCIENTISTS
dc.subject
CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
dc.subject
CLIMATE SIGNAL
dc.subject
CLIMATE STATISTICS
dc.subject
CLIMATE SYSTEM
dc.subject
CLIMATE THREATS
dc.subject
CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY
dc.subject
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
dc.subject
CLIMATE VARIABLES
dc.subject
CLIMATES
dc.subject
CLIMATIC EFFECTS
dc.subject
CLOUDS
dc.subject
CO
dc.subject
CO2
dc.subject
CONGESTION COSTS
dc.subject
CONVECTION
dc.subject
CORROSION
dc.subject
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
dc.subject
COST OF CARBON
dc.subject
COST-BENEFIT
dc.subject
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
dc.subject
CREDIBILITY
dc.subject
CROP INSURANCE
dc.subject
CROSSING
dc.subject
CROSSINGS
dc.subject
DAMAGES
dc.subject
DEEP UNCERTAINTY
dc.subject
DEGREE OF RISK
dc.subject
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject
DISCOUNT RATE
dc.subject
DISCOUNT RATES
dc.subject
DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS
dc.subject
DRAINAGE
dc.subject
DRIVERS
dc.subject
DROUGHT
dc.subject
ECONOMIC ANALYSES
dc.subject
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subject
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subject
ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject
ECOSYSTEM
dc.subject
EMISSION
dc.subject
EMISSION REDUCTION
dc.subject
EMISSION REDUCTION TARGET
dc.subject
EMISSION SCENARIO
dc.subject
EMISSIONS
dc.subject
EMISSIONS REDUCTION
dc.subject
EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
dc.subject
EMISSIONS SCENARIOS
dc.subject
EMISSIONS TRENDS
dc.subject
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subject
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
dc.subject
ENERGY USE
dc.subject
ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS
dc.subject
ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS
dc.subject
EXCESSIVE RAIN
dc.subject
FEASIBILITY
dc.subject
FEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subject
FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subject
FLOODS
dc.subject
FOREST
dc.subject
FOREST MANAGEMENT
dc.subject
FORESTRY
dc.subject
FORESTRY SECTOR
dc.subject
FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject
FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
dc.subject
FUTURES
dc.subject
GHG
dc.subject
GLACIERS
dc.subject
GLOBAL CLIMATE
dc.subject
GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE
dc.subject
GLOBAL WARMING
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
dc.subject
GREEN BELT
dc.subject
GREENHOUSE
dc.subject
GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subject
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
dc.subject
GREENHOUSE GASES
dc.subject
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
dc.subject
HURRICANE
dc.subject
HURRICANE PROTECTION
dc.subject
HURRICANES
dc.subject
ICE SHEETS
dc.subject
IMPACT OF CLIMATE
dc.subject
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject
IMPORTS
dc.subject
INCOME
dc.subject
INFORMATION ON CLIMATE
dc.subject
INSURANCE
dc.subject
INSURANCE COMPANIES
dc.subject
INTANGIBLES
dc.subject
INTENSITY OF STORMS
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subject
INVESTING
dc.subject
INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES
dc.subject
INVESTMENT DECISION
dc.subject
INVESTMENT DECISIONS
dc.subject
IPCC
dc.subject
JOBS
dc.subject
LAKES
dc.subject
LAND USE
dc.subject
LAND USE PATTERNS
dc.subject
LOCAL GOVERNMENT
dc.subject
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS
dc.subject
LOWER COSTS
dc.subject
LOWER DISCOUNT RATE
dc.subject
MANGROVE FOREST
dc.subject
MARGINAL ABATEMENT
dc.subject
MARGINAL ABATEMENT COST
dc.subject
MARKET PRICE
dc.subject
MARKET PRICES
dc.subject
MARKET VALUE
dc.subject
MARKET VALUES
dc.subject
MONETARY VALUE
dc.subject
MONSOONS
dc.subject
NEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subject
OCEANS
dc.subject
OPPORTUNITY COST
dc.subject
PHYSICS
dc.subject
POLICY MAKERS
dc.subject
POLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subject
POPULATION GROWTH
dc.subject
PORTFOLIOS
dc.subject
POWER PLANTS
dc.subject
POWER STATIONS
dc.subject
PRECIPITATION
dc.subject
PRESENT VALUE
dc.subject
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
dc.subject
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
dc.subject
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
dc.subject
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
dc.subject
PUBLIC TRANSPORT SUBSIDY
dc.subject
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
dc.subject
RAIN
dc.subject
RAINFALL
dc.subject
RAINY DAYS
dc.subject
RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject
REGIONAL CLIMATE
dc.subject
REGULATORY POLICIES
dc.subject
RELATIVE PRICES
dc.subject
RENEWABLE ENERGY
dc.subject
RESOURCE ECONOMICS
dc.subject
RETURN
dc.subject
RETURNS
dc.subject
RISK AVERSION
dc.subject
RISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subject
RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
dc.subject
RISK NEUTRAL
dc.subject
ROAD
dc.subject
ROAD TRAFFIC
dc.subject
ROAD TUNNEL
dc.subject
ROADS
dc.subject
ROUTE
dc.subject
ROUTES
dc.subject
SAFETY
dc.subject
SCENARIOS
dc.subject
SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS
dc.subject
SEA LEVEL RISE
dc.subject
SEISMIC EVENT
dc.subject
SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
dc.subject
SETTLEMENT
dc.subject
SHADOW PRICE
dc.subject
SILVER
dc.subject
SOCIAL COST OF CARBON
dc.subject
STORM SURGE
dc.subject
STORMS
dc.subject
TEMPERATURE
dc.subject
TEMPERATURE CHANGE
dc.subject
TEMPERATURES
dc.subject
TERRORISM
dc.subject
TOTAL COST
dc.subject
TRADING
dc.subject
TRADING SYSTEM
dc.subject
TRAFFIC
dc.subject
TRAFFIC CONGESTION
dc.subject
TRAFFIC LANES
dc.subject
TRANSPARENCY
dc.subject
TRANSPORT
dc.subject
TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subject
TRAVEL COSTS
dc.subject
TREASURY
dc.subject
TROPICS
dc.subject
TRUE
dc.subject
UNCERTAINTIES
dc.subject
UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS
dc.subject
URBAN PLANNERS
dc.subject
UTILITY FUNCTION
dc.subject
VALUATION
dc.subject
VALUATION TECHNIQUES
dc.subject
VALUATIONS
dc.subject
WORST-CASE
dc.title
Agreeing on Robust Decisions : New Processes for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
en
okr.crosscuttingsolutionarea
Climate Change
okr.date.disclosure
2014-06-01
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19616379/agreeing-robust-decisions-new-processes-decision-making-under-deep-uncertainty
okr.globalpractice
Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpractice
Transport and ICT
okr.globalpractice
Environment and Natural Resources
okr.globalpractice
Finance and Markets
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/1813-9450-6906
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
000158349_20140604102709
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
19616379
okr.identifier.report
WPS6906
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/06/04/000158349_20140604102709/Rendered/PDF/WPS6906.pdf
en
okr.topic
Environment :: Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Climate Change Economics
okr.topic
Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Debt Markets
okr.topic
Transport Economics Policy and Planning
okr.topic
Science and Technology Development :: Science of Climate Change
okr.topic
Transport
okr.unit
Office of the Chief Economist, Climate Change Group
okr.volume
1 of 1

Show simple item record



This item appears in the following Collection(s)