Publication: Climate Change and Sea Level Rise : A Review of the Scientific Evidence
Date
2009-05
ISSN
Published
2009-05
Author(s)
Dasgupta, Susmita
Meisner, Craig
Abstract
Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate
change is a serious global threat: the scientific evidence
is now overwhelming. The rate of global sea level rise was
faster from 1993 to 2003, about 3.1 mm per year, as compared
to the average rate of 1.8 mm per year from 1961 to 2003
(IPCC, 2007); and significantly higher than the average rate
of 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr increase recorded by geological data
over the last 3,000 years. Anthropogenic warming and SLR
will continue for centuries due to the time scales
associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if
greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized. This
paper reviews the scientific literature to date on climate
change and sea level rise. There appears to be a consensus
across studies that global sea level is projected to rise
during the 21st century at a greater rate than during the
period 1961 to 2003 and unanimous agreement that SLR will
not be geographically uniform. Ocean thermal expansion is
projected to contribute significantly, and land ice will
increasingly lose mass at an accelerated rate. But most
controversial are the mass balance loss estimates of the
Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and what the yet
un-quantified dynamic processes will imply in terms of SLR.
Recent evidence on the vulnerability of Greenland and west
Antarctic ice sheets to climate warming raises the alarming
possibility of SLR by one meter or more by the end of the
21st century.
Citation
“Dasgupta, Susmita; Meisner, Craig. 2009. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise : A Review of the Scientific Evidence. Environment department papers;no. 118.
Climate change series. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/18382 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”