External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldova

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collection.link.5
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9
collection.name.5
Policy Research Working Papers
dc.contributor.author
Kinnunen, Jouko
dc.contributor.author
Lofgren, Hans
dc.contributor.author
Sulla, Victor
dc.contributor.author
Merotto, Dino
dc.date.accessioned
2013-04-11T20:21:32Z
dc.date.available
2013-04-11T20:21:32Z
dc.date.issued
2013-02
dc.date.lastModified
2017-12-13T12:24:39Z
dc.description.abstract
The economy of Moldova, which has one of the lowest levels of gross national income per capita in the World Bank Europe and Central Asia region, is strongly linked to the outside world, especially to the neighboring countries of the European Union and the Commonwealth of Independent States. This paper analyzes a set of scenarios for Moldova up to 2020, defined to shed light on issues related to an alternative future dominated by goods and services exports as opposed to today's reliance on worker remittances. The analysis is based on a Moldovan version of MAMS (Maquette for Millennium Development Goal Simulations), a CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model for country strategy analysis. In sum, the impact of increased export demand and productivity growth is more positive when these shocks are directed to manufacturing, a sector more heavily linked to international trade, compared with agriculture. Increased productivity in transport and communications generates faster growth with widely diffused benefits, reaching households in a relatively equitable manner compared with foreign trade-induced growth. A comparison between adverse shocks in two areas, higher energy import prices, and lower remittances, designed to have similar effects on gross domestic product, suggests that a remittance shock leads to less of a poverty increase, related to the fact that remittance-receiving households are not highly vulnerable; among sectors, agriculture is most vulnerable due to heavy energy reliance. Finally, well-targeted transfer schemes may offer an effective tool for diffusing the benefits of economic growth to the whole population, perhaps also contributing to more general acceptance of structural change.
en
dc.identifier
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17361892/external-shocks-fiscal-policy-income-distribution-alternative-scenarios-moldova
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13168
dc.language
English
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6365
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject
ACCOUNTING
dc.subject
ACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL
dc.subject
ADVERSE SHOCKS
dc.subject
AGRICULTURE
dc.subject
ANNUAL GROWTH
dc.subject
ASSETS
dc.subject
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subject
BASE YEAR
dc.subject
BRAIN DRAIN
dc.subject
BUDGET CONSTRAINT
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BUDGET CONSTRAINTS
dc.subject
CAPITAL ACCOUNTS
dc.subject
CAPITAL GAINS
dc.subject
CAPITAL STOCKS
dc.subject
COMMODITIES
dc.subject
COMMODITY
dc.subject
COMMODITY MARKETS
dc.subject
COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES
dc.subject
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
dc.subject
COMPETITIVENESS
dc.subject
CONSUMPTION DECISIONS
dc.subject
CONSUMPTION LEVELS
dc.subject
COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
CRISES
dc.subject
CURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subject
CURRENT ACCOUNTS
dc.subject
DEBT
dc.subject
DEMAND CURVE
dc.subject
DEMAND CURVES
dc.subject
DEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subject
DEPRECIATION
dc.subject
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject
DEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subject
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subject
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subject
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
dc.subject
DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subject
DISPOSABLE INCOME
dc.subject
DOMESTIC BORROWING
dc.subject
DOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subject
DOMESTIC DEMANDS
dc.subject
DOMESTIC MARKET
dc.subject
DOMESTIC MARKETS
dc.subject
DOMESTIC PRICE
dc.subject
DOMESTIC PRICE LEVELS
dc.subject
DOMESTIC PRICES
dc.subject
ECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subject
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
dc.subject
ECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subject
ECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subject
ECONOMIC RESEARCH
dc.subject
ECONOMIC SECTORS
dc.subject
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
dc.subject
ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS
dc.subject
ELASTICITY
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ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
dc.subject
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
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EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subject
EQUILIBRIUM PRICES
dc.subject
EQUIPMENT
dc.subject
EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
EXPENDITURE
dc.subject
EXPENDITURES
dc.subject
EXPORT MARKETS
dc.subject
EXPORT SHARE
dc.subject
EXPORT VOLUMES
dc.subject
EXPORTS
dc.subject
EXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subject
EXTERNAL TRADE
dc.subject
FACTOR DEMAND
dc.subject
FACTOR MARKETS
dc.subject
FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject
FINANCIAL FLOWS
dc.subject
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
dc.subject
FISCAL POLICY
dc.subject
FIXED CAPITAL
dc.subject
FIXED INVESTMENT
dc.subject
FOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subject
FOREIGN DEBT
dc.subject
FOREIGN DEBTS
dc.subject
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subject
FOREIGN GOVERNMENT
dc.subject
FOREIGN INTEREST
dc.subject
FOREIGN INTERESTS
dc.subject
FOREIGN MARKETS
dc.subject
FOREIGN TRADE
dc.subject
FREE TRADE
dc.subject
FREE TRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subject
FULL EMPLOYMENT
dc.subject
FUNCTIONAL FORMS
dc.subject
FUTURE GROWTH
dc.subject
GDP
dc.subject
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subject
GINI COEFFICIENT
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT BUDGET
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT DEBTS
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT POLICY
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT REVENUES
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subject
GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES
dc.subject
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subject
GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subject
GROSS NATIONAL INCOME
dc.subject
GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS
dc.subject
GROWTH RATE
dc.subject
GROWTH RATES
dc.subject
HOME MARKET
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
dc.subject
HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS
dc.subject
IMPACT OF SHOCKS
dc.subject
IMPORT
dc.subject
IMPORT PRICES
dc.subject
IMPORTS
dc.subject
INCOME
dc.subject
INCOME GROWTH
dc.subject
INCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subject
INCOME TAX
dc.subject
INCOME TAXES
dc.subject
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
dc.subject
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS
dc.subject
INTEREST PAYMENTS
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL PRICES
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subject
INVESTMENT DEMANDS
dc.subject
INVESTMENT FINANCING
dc.subject
INVESTMENT SPENDING
dc.subject
LABOR FORCE
dc.subject
LABOR FORCE GROWTH
dc.subject
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
dc.subject
LABOR MARKET
dc.subject
LABOR MARKETS
dc.subject
LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subject
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
dc.subject
MARKET ACCESS
dc.subject
MARKET PRICES
dc.subject
MARKET SHARE
dc.subject
MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subject
MOBILE PHONE
dc.subject
MOBILE PHONES
dc.subject
MONETARY FUND
dc.subject
NATIONAL INCOME
dc.subject
OUTPUT
dc.subject
OUTPUTS
dc.subject
PENSIONS
dc.subject
PERSONAL INCOME
dc.subject
POLICY RESPONSES
dc.subject
POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject
PRICE CHANGES
dc.subject
PRICE ELASTICITY
dc.subject
PRICE LEVELS
dc.subject
PRIVATE CAPITAL
dc.subject
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
dc.subject
PRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subject
PRIVATE SAVINGS
dc.subject
PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subject
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subject
PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES
dc.subject
PROFIT MAXIMIZATION
dc.subject
PUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subject
RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject
RAPID GROWTH
dc.subject
REAL ESTATE
dc.subject
REAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject
REAL GROWTH RATES
dc.subject
REAL WAGES
dc.subject
REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
dc.subject
RELATIVE PRICES
dc.subject
REMITTANCE
dc.subject
REMITTANCES
dc.subject
RETURN
dc.subject
SAVINGS
dc.subject
SAVINGS RATE
dc.subject
SMALL COUNTRY
dc.subject
SOCIAL BENEFITS
dc.subject
SOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subject
STOCK CHANGE
dc.subject
STRONG DEMAND
dc.subject
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
dc.subject
SUPPLIERS
dc.subject
SUPPLY CURVE
dc.subject
SUPPLY CURVES
dc.subject
SUPPLY SIDE
dc.subject
SURPLUS
dc.subject
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject
TAX
dc.subject
TAX CODE
dc.subject
TAX POLICY
dc.subject
TAX RATES
dc.subject
TAX REVENUES
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TELECOMMUNICATIONS
dc.subject
TELEPHONE LINES
dc.subject
TOTAL EXPORTS
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TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subject
TOTAL REVENUE
dc.subject
TRADE BARRIERS
dc.subject
TRADE DEFICIT
dc.subject
TRADE STATISTICS
dc.subject
TRADING
dc.subject
TRADING PARTNERS
dc.subject
TRANSACTION
dc.subject
TRANSACTION COSTS
dc.subject
TRUST FUND
dc.subject
UNCERTAINTIES
dc.subject
UNCERTAINTY
dc.subject
UNEMPLOYED
dc.subject
UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subject
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subject
UNSKILLED LABOR
dc.subject
UPWARD PRESSURE
dc.subject
VALUE ADDED
dc.subject
VOLATILITY
dc.subject
WAGE GROWTH
dc.subject
WAGE INCREASES
dc.subject
WAGES
dc.subject
WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subject
WORLD MARKET
dc.subject
WORLD MARKETS
dc.subject
WORLD PRICES
dc.title
External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldova
en
okr.crosscuttingsolutionarea
Jobs
okr.date.disclosure
2013-02-01
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17361892/external-shocks-fiscal-policy-income-distribution-alternative-scenarios-moldova
okr.globalpractice
Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpractice
Social Protection and Labor
okr.globalpractice
Finance and Markets
okr.globalpractice
Trade and Competitiveness
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/1813-9450-6365
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
000158349_20130219155600
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
17361892
okr.identifier.report
WPS6365
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/02/19/000158349_20130219155600/Rendered/PDF/wps6365.pdf
en
okr.region.administrative
Europe and Central Asia
okr.region.country
Moldova
okr.topic
Social Protections and Labor :: Labor Policies
okr.topic
Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Debt Markets
okr.topic
Economic Theory and Research
okr.topic
Private Sector Development :: Emerging Markets
okr.topic
Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Currencies and Exchange Rates
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.unit
Development Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume
1 of 1

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