The Unfairness of (Poverty) Targets

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collection.link.5
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9
collection.name.5
Policy Research Working Papers
dc.contributor.author
Allwine, Melanie
dc.contributor.author
Rigolini, Jamele
dc.contributor.author
López-Calva, Luis F.
dc.date.accessioned
2013-04-11T19:31:08Z
dc.date.available
2013-04-11T19:31:08Z
dc.date.issued
2013-02
dc.description.abstract
Adopted on September 8, 2000, the United Nations Millennium Declaration stated as its first goal that countries "...[further] resolve to halve, by the year 2015, the proportion of the world's people whose income is less than one dollar a day and the proportion of people who suffer from hunger..." Each country committed to achieve the stated goal, regardless of their initial conditions in terms of poverty and inequality levels. This paper presents a framework to quantify how much initial conditions affect poverty reduction, given a level of "effort" (growth). The framework used in the analysis allows for the growth elasticity of poverty to vary according to changes in the income distribution along the dynamic path of growth and redistribution, unlike previous examples in the literature where this is assumed to be constant. While wealthier countries did perform better in reducing poverty in the last decade and a half (1995-2008), assuming equal initial conditions, the situation reverses: the paper finds a statistically significant negative relation between initial average income and poverty reduction performance, with the poorest countries in the sample going from the worst to the best performers in poverty reduction. The analysis also quantifies how much poorer countries would have scored better, had they had the same level of initial average income as wealthier countries. The results suggest a remarkable change in poverty reduction performance, in addition to the reversal of ranks from worst to best performers. The application of this framework goes beyond poverty targets and the Millennium Development Goals. Given the widespread use of targets to determine resource allocation in education, health, or decentralized social expenditures, it constitutes a helpful tool to measure policy performance toward all kinds of goals. The proposed framework can be useful to evaluate the importance of initial conditions on outcomes, for a wide array of policies.
en
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13159
dc.language
English
dc.language.iso
en_US
dc.publisher
World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6361
dc.rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder
World Bank
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject
ANNUAL % CHANGE
dc.subject
ANNUAL CHANGE
dc.subject
AVERAGE INCOME
dc.subject
AVERAGE MONTHLY PER CAPITA INCOME
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CARIBBEAN REGION
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CHANGES IN POVERTY
dc.subject
COUNTERFACTUAL
dc.subject
DAILY INCOME
dc.subject
DATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subject
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
dc.subject
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subject
DIMENSIONS OF POVERTY
dc.subject
DISTRIBUTION EFFECT
dc.subject
DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGE
dc.subject
ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subject
EXTREME POVERTY
dc.subject
EXTREME POVERTY LINE
dc.subject
FOOD POLICY
dc.subject
GINI COEFFICIENT
dc.subject
GROWTH ELASTICITY
dc.subject
GROWTH PERFORMANCE
dc.subject
GROWTH RATES
dc.subject
HEAD COUNT RATIO
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HEADCOUNT RATIO
dc.subject
HIGH POVERTY
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HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subject
IMPACT ON POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject
INCIDENCE OF POVERTY
dc.subject
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subject
INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
dc.subject
INCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subject
INEQUALITY CONSTANT
dc.subject
INEQUALITY LEVELS
dc.subject
LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
dc.subject
LONG RUN
dc.subject
MEAN EXPENDITURES
dc.subject
MEAN INCOME
dc.subject
MEAN INCOME GROWTH
dc.subject
ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION
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PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject
PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
dc.subject
POLICY RESEARCH
dc.subject
POOR
dc.subject
POOR COUNTRIES
dc.subject
POVERTY CHANGE
dc.subject
POVERTY CHANGES
dc.subject
POVERTY EFFECTS
dc.subject
POVERTY GAP
dc.subject
POVERTY IMPACT
dc.subject
POVERTY LEVELS
dc.subject
POVERTY LINE
dc.subject
POVERTY MEASUREMENT
dc.subject
POVERTY MEASURES
dc.subject
POVERTY RATE
dc.subject
POVERTY RATES
dc.subject
POVERTY REDUCTION
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POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS
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POVERTY REDUCTION TARGETS
dc.subject
REDUCING POVERTY
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REDUCTION IN POVERTY
dc.subject
REGIONAL AVERAGES
dc.subject
REGIONAL POVERTY
dc.subject
RESOURCE ALLOCATION
dc.subject
STANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subject
SUSTAINABLE POVERTY
dc.subject
SUSTAINABLE POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.title
The Unfairness of (Poverty) Targets
en
okr.associatedcontent
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/24873 Accepted journal manuscript
okr.date.disclosure
2013-02-01
okr.doctype
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctype
Publications & Research
okr.docurl
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17288977/unfairness-poverty-targets
okr.globalpractice
Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpractice
Poverty
okr.googlescholar.linkpresent
yes
okr.identifier.doi
10.1596/1813-9450-6361
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum
000158349_20130213160330
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum
17288977
okr.identifier.report
WPS6361
okr.language.supported
en
okr.pdfurl
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/02/13/000158349_20130213160330/Rendered/PDF/wps6361.pdf
en
okr.topic
Services and Transfers to Poor
okr.topic
Poverty Reduction :: Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.topic
Poverty Reduction :: Achieving Shared Growth
okr.topic
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Regional Economic Development
okr.topic
Poverty Monitoring and Analysis
okr.unit
Development Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume
1 of 1

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