Publication: Global Development Finance Projects Slow Growth for 1999
Date
1999-05
ISSN
Published
1999-05
Author(s)
Aiyar, Swaminathan S.
Brahmbhatt, Milan
Abstract
The growth prospects of developing
countries have worsened over the past six months, world
trade growth has slowed, capital flows are unlikely to
recover to pre-crisis levels in the near term, and,
commodity prices are weak. This note reviews the reduced
access to international capital flows by most emerging
countries, as a result of the financial crises, while dollar
export prices for developing countries fell eleven percent
in 1998, with both primary commodities, and manufactures
suffering. As a result, world trade fell one percent in
current dollars in 1998, the first decline since 1993, while
global trade volume in goods, grew only four to five percent
in 1998, the slowest advance since 1992, barely half the
performance in 1997. The note provides an outlook for
developing regions, with expected differences in performance
between regions, noting significant downside risks to even
this somber outlook, and, predicts potential revival of
protectionist sentiments in the United States, and Europe,
should economic activity contract.
Citation
“Aiyar, Swaminathan S.; Brahmbhatt, Milan. 1999. Global Development Finance Projects Slow Growth for 1999. PREM Notes; No. 21. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11480 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”